By Andrew K.P. Leung (International and Independent China Strategist. Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited)
At a YouTube webcast seminar of Washington D.C.-based CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) on 28 October, Freeman Chair Jude Blanchette and Andrew Polk, the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, dissected President Xi’s new policy framework for turning China into a “modern socialist nation” by 2035, including the New Development Concept, the Dual Circulation Strategy, Common Prosperity, and the 14th Five Year Plan.
This is turning out to be a granular, and insightful take on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 19th Central Committee Plenum from 8-11 November.
On the Plenum’s likely focus on the Party’s history, The Economist ‘s 4 November leader rightly intones that “To learn from the past, one must study it dispassionately“, although its content busies itself with blackening President Xi as trying to “falsify history”.
According to the South China Morning Post of 7 November, “Xi may avoid altering or questioning past views of the party’s history and instead emphasize its achievements.”. The Plenum is as much about the CCP’s past as its future under his stewardship.
The CSIS takeaways are that President Xi is NOT Mao 2.0 but the architect for PRC 3.0.(Mao/Deng/Xi), realizing the China Dream and the two Centenary Goals – (a) to become a moderately well-off (xiaokang) society by 2021, the centenary of the founding of the CCP; and (b) to become a “strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country” by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the PRC.
All signs show that Xi is firmly in charge, rumors about local opposition aside. His Third Term seems assured.
Already game-changing policies are emerging, including real estate deleveraging, a looming property tax , growth targets de-emphasized, and capital being steered away from monopolistic ”platform” behemoths.
On the cards are tax and fiscal reform, new data governance architecture, more aggressive policies to meet environmental challenges, possible opening of more sectors, or even some “nationalization”.
Chances are that China would be able to overcome the Middle Income Trap through across-the-board technology and innovation.
In face of herculean challenges, both domestic and external, China’s trajectory is not straightforward and the final outcome not cast in stone. Partial success, or a mixture, cannot be ruled out.
For example, the intense competition and demands of a “996” work culture (9 a.m. to 9 p.m. 6 days a week) have spawned a ‘tang ping” (“lying flat”) “passive” attitude amongst China’s Generation Z.
However, the term is somewhat misleading. The vast majority of China’s youth are positive-minded, wanting to strive for a better future for themselves, their families and their country. Many just want to take better charge of their own lives, to pursue what they are good at, and to chase their personal dreams, including volunteering, as manifest in this video. This augurs well for a more diversified and inclusive society.
One final take is that to overcome challenges ahead, unless provoked and backed into a corner, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan, as such a drastic move could easily mean all bets are off for China’s developmental trajectory.
During his Congress testimony of 3 November, 2021, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley repeated his June 2021 testimony that China lacks full capability (or absolute confidence) to prevail over Taiwan by force before 2027. He thinks that the People’s Liberation Amy (PLA) harbors no near-term intent to invade the Island, adding a caveat, however, that the unexpected could always happen!
Author: Andrew K.P. Leung (International and Independent China Strategist. Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited)
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).