By Valentina Conde Maldonado
The Arab-Israeli conflict is not only one of the longest-lasting in the world, but also one of the most complicated.
Since the 1947 partition plan, which proposed the existence of two states, there have been a series of wars and revolts that have only given way to a degradation of the will to negotiate, perpetuating violent dynamics and, in particular for the Palestinian people , weakening the authority they should have.
The current tensions are concentrated on the situation in the West Bank. However, the ongoing crisis has larger long-term implications for the resolution of the conflict.
In January of this year, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a “peace” plan between Palestine and Israel that supports many of the actions that have been taken. This plan, known as “the plan of the century”, is a step backwards from the agreements that had been reached previously, although they were never really fulfilled. In this scenario, the Israeli authorities have announced the annexation of the West Bank territory under Israel’s control since 1967. Since then, the status of this territory has been inconclusive with the claims of both sides over its sovereignty. The strategic importance lies in the fact that those 5,970 km2 reflect most of the tensions between Palestinians and Israelis.
In this regard, the response of the international community has been primarily of rejection, however no action has been taken that could lead Israel to reconsider its determination. And the lack of action by the United Nations is also reminiscent of the organization’s failures in the humanitarian crises of the 1990s.
The problem of Jewish settlements has existed since the beginning of the conflict. They have always been considered illegal under international law, taking into account the fact that the Geneva Conventions prohibit the transfer of citizens to territories that have been under the military domination of another state. The official response from Israel in this regard is that prior to its occupation these territories were not under the control of any authority and therefore there was no wrongdoing on their part. What does the renewal of this scenario imply in geopolitical terms?
The plan of the century
The proposal made by the United States and Israel does not arise from a real negotiation process with the Palestinian counterpart and, therefore, is simply the expression of Israel and the United States on what they believe should be the solution to the conflict.
The main feature of this new strategy is the elimination of previous progress, considering that the new vision of the territory that emerges from it supposes a violation of the division made in the Oslo Accords.
Likewise, the plan assumes that sovereignty is responsible for the Israeli army despite the fact that the provisions do not apply to Palestinians. The execution of this point is problematic when one considers the history of human rights violations by the Israeli military against Palestinians and the practical difficulties of securing non-universal provisions in such a fragmented territory. There are currently 140 settlements and a further annexation of around 30% of the West Bank is expected.
A group of experts from the United Nations called the Plan of the Century “a new vision of apartheid for the 21st century”, but no concrete response is foreseeable given the possible blockade of United States resolutions in the Security Council. For its part, the European Union has indicated that it will try to use diplomatic means to dissuade the Netanyahu government from proceeding with the annexations, but has not taken concrete action.
United States
After the Barack Obama administration, the Trump administration has been characterized by the strengthening of relations between the United States and Israel. The United States located its embassy in Jerusalem, reducing funding for the Palestinian National Authority and implicitly supporting annexations in the West Bank and the Golan Highlands.
However, this is a counterproductive scenario for Americans considering that they could lose the chances of influence in other places in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa due to the loyalty of some countries to Palestine, which ultimately translates in a change of geopolitical scenarios.
Netanyahu is believed to be seeking to implement the development of the plan prior to the change of government in the next American election. In fact, in the event that Joe Biden becomes president there will probably be a change in the state of relations between the two countries.
Palestine
For its part, the Palestinian National Authority has taken all diplomatic actions at its disposal to consolidate support from the international community, but in practice there is not much it can do to curb Israel’s intentions.
However, there is also concern that the elements necessary for the consolidation of a Palestinian state are lost, such as the continuous fragmentation of its territory and the non-exercise of sovereignty and monopoly of force by the PA, and therefore the presence of empty spaces of authorities who are prone to terrorism.
The radicalization of the Islamic discourse
The tensions that arise around the Palestinian problem give way to power gaps in the Arab world that allow the radicalization of the discourse in countries such as Egypt, Syria and Algeria. These spaces are also used by Turkey and Iran (especially for the actions they have taken in recent months) to consolidate their power in the Muslim world. The radicalization of the speech has an impact on radical Palestinian groups and they even seem to encourage terrorism in a scenario full of dissatisfaction and injustice.
Finally, it is important to recognize that, to truly ensure peace between Palestine and Israel, at least four basic elements must be resolved: the refugee issue, territorial borders, the status of Jerusalem and the settlement issue. This will only happen when the actions of the international community will lead Israel to recognize that the only solution to the conflict is the two-state solution, and when Palestine will be able to exert control over groups that see violence as the only solution. For now there are no scenarios of hope and it seems that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will always be present.
Author: Valentina Conde Maldonado (internationalist, analyst, international missions and peace operations, research assistant. Diploma in international relations, University of the Rosary, Colombia).
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AFP