By Rana Danish Nisar
A realistic world demands transition and transformation due to its shrewd anarchic edifice. Anatole France inks that “If we don’t change, we don’t grow. If we don’t grow we aren’t really living”.
Yes, without any deceptions and doubts, the international security pundits as well as specialists Dr. DANISH & Dr. ALI argue that “States priorities have now been changed and due to changing dynamics, the wars domains have been also shifted from Kinematic to Non-Kinematic wars. Change is essential for enlightenment and renaissance.
The 21st century knocks the unprecedented & exceptional advancements in technology and warfare domains. Apart from previous traditional warfare tactics and strategies, warfare has been shifted from Kinetic to Non-kinetic, Conventional to non-conventional, printed media to social media and antediluvian wars to hybrid warfare. Interestingly, the antediluvian wars now have been replaced by digital wars and the battle grounds have also been changed respectively. The typical, emblematic and illustrative battlegrounds have been replaced by “Blue Waters (Oceanic) & Blue Sky (Space)”. Concisely argues with “Waves Warfare”. Moreover, moving ahead, without any doubt, in the context of “Oceanic Waves”, the “Strait of Hormuz”, “Bab-el-Mandeb” and “Strait of Malacca” have their momentous worth weight in wider Blue Waters which are speckled from “East to West”. Importantly, the Strait of Hormuz deals with 17 million Barrels of oil transportation on daily basis. The Strait of Hormuz; Bab-el-Mandeb and Strait of Malacca deal 3.8 million and 15.2 million Barrels of oil transportation on daily basis respectively which increase their strategic weightiness in maritime Asian Geo-politics or Indo-Pacific Politics.
The complex competition in wider Blue waters among major power is creating more “Complex Security Dilemma” and also follow the wisdom of Buzan “Regional Security Complex”. The threat is constant & fixed and definitely the threat is “Security & Survival”. By following the notion of “Survival of fittest”, major powers are acquiring more power in these “Waves’ ‘ domains no matter whether these waves are “Oceania waves” or “Space Waves”. India’s Power-show influence in MADAGASCAR, MAURITIUS, SEYCHELLES, ANDAMAN, Chinese procession in HAINAN, CHITTAGONG SITTWE, HAMBANTOTA, GWADAR, DJIBOUTI and America’s presence in DIEGO GARCIA make wider Indo-Pacific more hostile and turn into NUCLEAR OCEANS.
By following the wisdom of Balancing, Alliance politics, and approaches of Offensive realism, India is the best option in the hands of the USA to counter the anti-American waves in the wider Asian Oceanic. Reciprocally, the wish to follow the acumen of Kautliya’s strategic thoughts, India is acquiring advanced weapons, munitions, technologies, nuclear nukes machinery, progressive missiles technology, defense systems under the umbrella of India-USA strategic nexus.
Most recently, India has been signed four main defense pacts with the USA i.e. LEMOA, COMCASA, ISA and BECA. No doubt, LEMOA, COMCASA and ISA will give strength to India in the wider Indian Ocean under Indo-Pacific strategy and India will definitely entertain logistics support in oceans. Moreover, the USA has plans to share the nuclear-submarine technology which will consequently alter the South Asian “Power Transition” and lay more power in the laps of India vis-à-vis Pakistan. Now, the deteriorating stability in south Asia is facing chaos. Likewise, BECA will give India to Geo-spatial satellites information and real-timing intelligence. It will enhance Indian “INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE” power.
There is no doubt that Alfred T. Mahan’s words have worth & weightage in Maritime politics. Once he said that “Whoever rules the waves, rules the World ”. Profoundly, the warfare domains are now replaced with the words “Waves Warfare”. With the rapid transformations in computerized numerical technology and rise of digitalization and juxtaposition among “Physics and Computer”, the meaning of Waves are now has been changed from archetypal type of waves i.e. sound waves, mechanical waves, seismic waves, gravity waves, surface waves, string vibrations, computer waves and vortices to Digital-Signals Waves.
Now, the states and defense specialties are using these waves as Digital-Weapons against their enemies. These waves can be further explained into multiple domains i.e. space militarization, space weaponization and space digitalization. This is an addition missile shields are also playing their vital roles Space-Waves wars. With more realistic lenses, the anti-satellite arms were firstly launched by the PRC approximately fifteen years ago. Now, the USA is facing serious threat to its orbital fleets which are useful in American military all fleets. According to the American security specialist, the serious threat is Chinese orientated warheads which could easily crack satellites and use laser beams for this purposes which has ability of delicate sensors and blind in-depth arrays. Additionally, pentagon profoundly has threat that Chinese ongoing advancement in technology and access to outer-space could lead the China in cyber-attacks and it could bowdlerized the Pentagon’s contact with satellites, cables waves that are useful to get secret information, movement communications of enemies their troops and could easily intercept smart munitions.
The CCTV cameras are also on the risk and important movement of pentagon could be leaked through waves interceptions. Apart from the all other traditional threats, this time national security of America is hot-line dilemma or threat facing by security specialists. According to them, Chines possess threat American Space-hegemony and military domains in the space. Now, Biden is not following the Space-policy of previous presidents but Biden has the will to inaugurate the separate Space Team/Military “a very new branch in the military” with the aim to counter threats of Russia and China in space. Moreover, consequently, the massive budget and teamwork required for this could lead to an extra burden on America’s economy and would increase the Space arm-race. Greg Grant, who was the pentagon official during the Obama presidency era, argues that “our space based systems and structure are vulnerable and it has no doubt. He argues that upcoming presidents should focus on this serious issue and grant some special funds and funding regarding this space defense.
It doesn’t matter what kind of threats and attacks are, the main motive should be to make America more protective in space and space orbits. The potent question is still the part of debate on how the USA could get strong Space-waves deterrence. America should focus on “Laser-like Focus” on “Modest based edges’ ‘ against China military space-advancement. The three star retired army officer, General Lloyd J. Austin argue that the USA should build-up “Space Based” new platforms who deal to Space regarding threats measurements, counter strategies and build-up space based alliances with its ally’s i.e. India etc. moreover, the USA should do sharing of new technology with its ally’s like Indian research instructions i.e. ISRO & DRDO.
Moreover, Austin argues that Space or Wave warfare is the next world of competition among major powers and China is our biggest threat in this regard. The Biden regime should focus on tapping new very advanced technology with the aim to enhance and to strengthen American space militarization, space defense shields and do hugging/juxtaposition with private based space entities which would consequently Sharpe American space orientated military power. Pentagon more argue that this space arm race would put the globe towards cuss tensions and bloody likelihood conflicts. Now, the US policy of “Star-Wars” which was inaugurated by Reagan has been changed. Now, the nuclear warheads are not a big deal but the satellites’ orbits definitely matter. Frankly, according to global security pundits, China is leading in space domains and in the upcoming future the USA interests could be at risk because the USA and China have serious competition in the space realm, David J. Thompson said. He argues that till now the USA has more satellites in Space-World. In the total numbers of 4500 space satellites in the orbits and the USA has almost more than half of the satellites which are nears 2700 satellites. On the contrary, China is the next competitor and will launch more and higher satellites in the last year of 2021. According to the reports of “Statista-2018, November” the world has the following numbers of satellites, as in the picture;
The top 10 countries which are leading the space are “USA, CHINA, RUSSIA, UK, JAPAN, INDIA, EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY, CANADA, GERMANY and LUXEMBOURGE”. The following chart/table shows more information about satellites.
Besides this, the USA has still more stable and strong powerful rockets, deliver reliable pay-loads, space based probes, space based crafts and satellites. As do comparison between the USA and China, both has 48 billion $ and 8.9 billion $ remarkable budget in Space programs. Apart from public sector, the USA is booming private sector which will do help the USA in Space sector. Additionally, states on regional basis are boosting their power in space while joining hands in space sector i.e. BRICS’s “Virtual communications and EO-satellites to monitor the Indo-Pacific Power-Politics Show. Even “Near-map” partners with “Carah-soft” provide location intelligence to the USA government.
Along this, India is also building up its satellites-based military “Surveillance and Reconnaissance” aim to extend its influence globally, regionally and wider Indian Ocean, furthermore, the BECA agreement with the USA will further boost-up Indian energy-power in South Asia and beyond. In concluding remarks, Advance technologies has been knocked the 21st century with both “Threats and Peace” and the time will decide the final triumph.
Rana Danish Nisar – The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).