By Denis Korkodinov
A boycott of negotiations with the Taliban at the initiative of US President Donald Trump will provoke an escalation of the conflict in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Washington will not be able to ignore the Taliban factor for a long period of time. In this regard, Donald Trump will be forced to resume dialogue with opponents of the government of Ashraf Ghani.
The dismissal of US national security adviser John Bolton was due, among other things, to his implacable stance on the Afghan conflict. Donald Trump does not intend to get involved in the protracted conflict in Central Asia, especially on the eve of the upcoming presidential election, when the head of the White House must demonstrate to his voters an exceptional peacefulness and lack of problems with neighbors.
For 18 years, US leaders could not solve the problems of Afghanistan, which turned into a real headache for the White House administration. In turn, the American “hawks” in the person of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo were determined to further tighten American participation in the Afghan confrontation, which contradicts the interests of Donald Trump.
In 2016, the head of the White House decided to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, believing that their mission was over. Thus, Washington recognized its own inability to solve the problems of Kabul. The US was unable to suppress the resistance of the Taliban, which proved to be the dominant force in the region. And now the Taliban cannot be destroyed, as the movement has become an integral part of Afghan reality. Under such conditions, the only way to pacify the Taliban, who control about 45 percent of the territory of Afghanistan, is to organize a constructive dialogue with them and recognize their right to rule the country.
US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad recently officially announced that Washington has managed to reach an agreement with the Taliban. But in order for this agreement to enter into force, it was necessary to obtain the consent of Donald Trump. Nevertheless, there was a big obstacle to the implementation of the agreement with the Taliban – this is John Bolton, who was determined to continue to fight the opponents of Ashraf Ghani, thereby creating additional problems for the United States in Kabul.
Under these conditions, Donald Trump made the right decision, firing John Bolton from the post of national security adviser. In the end, the head of the White House seeks to show the international community that he is able to negotiate even with irreconcilable enemies in the international arena, while John Bolton was an ardent supporter of the war without any agreements.
One way or another, the meeting with the Taliban at Camp David announced by Donald Trump did not take place. Such a sharp turnaround in White House politics provoked outrage in Afghanistan, which led to an escalation of the conflict. The Taliban resumed attacks on government forces in official Kabul. And until the negotiation process is restored, tensions between the Taliban and the forces of Ashraf Ghani are unlikely to tolerate negative dynamics.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Source: Fox News