By Denis Korkodinov
Somalia attempted to exert diplomatic and military pressure on Kenya because of a dispute over maritime borders, forcing the Arab League to protest Nairobi in connection with the annexation of Mogadishu territory.
The Somali Foreign Office officially recognized the disputed waters in the Indian Ocean as being under “Arab jurisdiction.” However, the Arab League publicly condemned the intervention of foreign countries in the territorial conflict between Mogadishu and Nairobi. From a geopolitical point of view, such a strategy entails significant difficulties for Kenya, which may face the threat of international pressure, if it comes to the stage of consideration by the International Court of Justice.
It is worth noting that the territorial dispute between the two countries of the Horn of Africa concerns about 100 thousand square kilometers of the sea, where, according to some experts, there are huge oil reserves.
In August 2014, Somalia appealed to an international court in order to recognize its rights to this territory. However, Kenya still refuses to admit the lawsuit, responsibly stating its claims to the disputed waters.
The big problem in the dispute is the process of combating piracy and terrorism. For the time being, the parties cannot agree among themselves in the region that the international terrorist group Al-Shabaab is gaining strength, as well as Somali pirates, who threaten not only the security of Kenya, but also all states that use the Indian Ocean to transport commercial cargo.
Aware of the seriousness of this problem, the international community is trying to put pressure on Kenya and Somalia in the hope of encouraging them to take a set of preventive measures to ensure the safety of maritime navigation. In response, Nairobi strengthened the coast guard in November 2018 in order to accompany the ships of its partners. But these efforts are not enough to ensure regional security, since Mogadishu ignores all the efforts of the Kenyan leadership.
Currently, the conflict between Kenya and Somalia has gained additional momentum due to the fact that the parties have declared mutual rights to the energy resources contained in the disputed waters. Each of the parties is ready to use all the tools available to take control over the oil fields.
At the same time, with the support of France and Great Britain, Somalia has the opportunity to use military capabilities to exert pressure on Kenya, which is in search of international allies, ready to provide military assistance to it. So the Horn of Africa is preparing for war.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
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