The so-called Bolivarian Revolution will be entering a new battle for survival on the diplomatic front with the expiration of the current government’s mandate: Almost 50 countries are planning to cut or reduce their ties with Venezuela’s hardline socialist government.
Nicolas Maduro could no longer be recognized as the legitimate leader of the country after he’s sworn for a new six-years term in the next hours. While the region is being overwhelmed by millions of migrants and refugees fleeing the country’s economic free fall, hyperinflation and food and medicine shortages.
After the opposition parties took over the Venezuelan National Assembly in 2016, Maduro responded by the creation of parallel institutions, relying on his control over the Armed Forces and the Supreme Court to overcome the powers of the parliament. Since then, there has been an extremely complex Constitutional Crisis going on in the country: There are now two Supreme Courts, two Parliaments, two Chief Prosecutors and maybe in a matter of days, there will be two presidents if a vacuum of power is declared.
“Nicolas, this parliament won’t take your oath(…) After January 10 you will be a usurper president” said Juan Guaidó, the new Venezuelan parliament chief, to Nicolas Maduro, who in return accused him of being “a puppet and trained agent of the Americans” to overthrow the Revolution.
In the country’s electoral history were not only widely considered to be unlawful, unfair, and unfree, but also declared “non-existent” by the Venezuelan National Assembly since all the viable opposition candidates were gradually banned or imprisoned. This internal decision has been consistently supported by many governments who do not recognize the re-election of Mr. Maduro, including the USA, Canada, France, Italy, the UK, Germany, Morocco, Japan, and most Latin American countries.
The Lima Group, conformed by 13 Latin American countries and Canada, made a joint declaration signed by all its members -except Mexico– stating that “The electoral process in Venezuela that took place on May 20, 2018 is illegal(…) We won’t recognize the legitimacy of the new mandate of Maduro”. Although the USA is not a formal member of the Group, the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that “the elections in Venezuela were flawed, unfree, and unfair. We stand with the region to demand the restoration of democracy and fundamental freedoms.”
These actions were strongly supported by the Secretary of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, who wrote on his Twitter: “We support and join the declaration of the Lima Group and we urge all the international community to unrecognize Maduro as a legitimate leader and to abstain to provide him any economic and military support”.
Antonio Tajani, president of the European Parliament also confirmed that “We don’t recognize the regime. The European Parliament stands with the Venezuelan people(…) Venezuela must recover its liberty and democracy by the realization of clean elections”.
How did the constitutional crisis begin?
When the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela lost control of the parliament, the lame-duck parliament members quickly appointed the judges of the Supreme Court (called the Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, on Spanish) and filled it with allies. Some months later, on Mars 29 2017, the regime-controlled judges declared the National Assembly “in contempt and disobedience”, accusing its members of “treason to the homeland”, taking over all its legislative powers and transferring them to the President. This decision was the catalyst for a massive public dissatisfaction that produced hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans to take over the streets to support the National Assembly demanding the fall of the government and the restauration of democracy.
The opposition-controlled National Assembly, in response, accused the Supreme Court to be a puppet of the Executive and thus acted under its legitimate functions to declare void the previously appointed judges, resulting in the formation of a new “Tribunal Supremo de Justicia Legítimo” whose members had to flee the country due political persecution. This newly established Court convenes in Colombia’s parliament building, ordering an international arrest warrant against Maduro, which has been supported by the OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, Canada, the UK and most Latin American countries.
Amid protest, Mr. Maduro issued a presidential decree calling for the creation of a parallel Constituent National Assembly (ANC) with 545 pro-regime members to -de facto- replace the opposition controlled National Assembly. This election was criticized and not recognized internally or externally: It was even condemned by Maduro’s allies and prominent figures of the Bolivarian Revolution who accused him to betray Hugo Chavez’s legacy and violating the principles of socialism and bolivarianism.
The immediate consequences
The Constituent National Assembly (ANC) enjoys the support of the Venezuelan Armed Forces and has the absolute -de facto but not de jure- power to modify elections cycles, to kick-out non-loyal authorities and to proclaim new laws and codes. However, the Organization of American States, the European Union, Mercosur, and many Latin American countries have explicitly shown their support to the National Assembly, and do not recognize the parallel Constituent National Assembly (or any of its actions) as legitimate, including the last-held presidential elections.
As the last elections of Mr. Maduro were called by the so-accused illegal Constituent National Assembly (a body created by the government to function as a parallel-parliament), they won’t be recognized as legitimate and credible by many political actors inside and outside the country.
Although the immediate reduction of ties with over 40 Western Hemisphere countries is damaging for the image of the Bolivarian Revolution, it is not safe to say that the regime is “alone” or isolated. The government still enjoys the valuable economic and political support of many allies such as Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea who are very interested in maintaining a strong foot in Latin America to counteract the US influence over the region.
Maduro’s regime faith is uncertain and unpredictable. Nonetheless, the ongoing economical and humanitarian crisis will continue if the Socialist government refuses any foreign aid arguing that the crisis is non-existent and artificially created by the USA to topple down the government.
Image Credit: Prensa Presidencial