By Rana Danish Nisar
“In statistic, this withdrawal is gathering the storm”
Apart from the long-headed USA stay in the land of Afghan, now the withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan has consequences, yields and implications.
Almost twenty years ago, with the name of “self-defense” or “WOT”, the American forces along with military services of NATO countries did full-fledge attack on Afghanistan with the aim to eliminate the terrorism entities.
Not together and interestingly apart from the long debate of the results of this extensive American led “WOT” or “Profit and loss” for America, this piece of writing will shed light on the possible implications of American withdrawal from Afghanistan on regions particular to Pakistan. Either this American pulling out is de-light for Pakistan or “demon-knight”? Pakistan and Afghanistan have had a fateful estrangement for long times.
Despite friendly, cordial and engagement, contemporary history has witnessed that Pak-Afghan ties are not decent in relations as the two neighbors relations should be. The border issues, illegal trafficking, drug trafficking, Durand Line issue, Pakhunistan issue etc., are very common problems among two neighboring nations. In fact, Pakistan has been facing serious consequences of Russian invasion of Afghanistan 1979s till now.
The flood of refugees, AK-47 culture, rise of Afghans in Pakistan, economic burden and all others are the costs of Russian invasion. The rise of Taliban 1.0 could be considered as also a by-product of Russian invasion and the withdrawal from Afghanistan in the late 80s. Interestingly, since the 90s, Taliban now has its own identity or can be considered a state within the state of Afghanistan.
Taliban has power in Afghanistan, no doubt has highbrow leaders, the structure as well but reciprocally Afghanistan itself along with other countries are unable to recognize the Taliban regime “then and now”. They considered the Taliban as a group of people that are not suitable. They pronounce Taliban as not suitable actors as well. As a very first neighboring country of Afghanistan, Pakistan has definitely or categorically some apprehensions regarding the currently ongoing situation in the land of Afghanistan. With the comparative analysis, as like the Russian invasion and its impacts on Pakistan, Pakistan will now also have effects of American withdrawal.
The Taliban 2.0 appears as the worrying mirror for Pakistan particularly in the security domain owing to the Taliban control over Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul. The Taliban wants their acceptance legitimacy as a recognized entity by the regional as well as global powers which seems the rising clash among them. From global security pundit’s perspectives, the USA has only one option to recognize the Taliban 2.0 if the Taliban makes sure that the land of Afghanistan will not be used against the USA and its allies and their interests. Apart from the USA, Pakistan has been facing the brunt of this rise of Taliban.
The international intellectual asserts that the Taliban is the by-product of American support to Pakistan during the Cold war era particular the ending of 80s when the Russia invaded Afghanistan and the later on gradually as well as progressively the Taliban (mujahideen) (1) emerged as TTP in the land of pure (Pakistan) as an armed group which is firmly located at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
It has evidence that the TTP has supported/funded (2) by the Pakistan’s eastern border country and Pakistan has firmly believed that the orchestrating terrorist activities in Pakistan are the merchandise-product of enemies (3) and Pakistan has firm evidence. (4) The FATA, KPK and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan have been facing serious instability and could be considered as demon hubs of terrorists which are supported by enemies. Pakistan has launched anti-terrorism action plans named “Zarb_e_Azab” aimed to demolish the terrorists from the land of pure.
Pakistan has been a symbol of peace, harmony in the region and globe since independence. Apart from the harsh and punitive actions of both eastern and western border neighbors against Pakistan, Pakistan has been playing its vital role in Afghan peace process in Doha and as well American twenty years long war because Pakistan wants peaceful South Asia, region and globe. The following figure can show the positive role of Pakistan’s aim to promote peace in the region.
Moving head, at the present, Pakistan is seriously worrying about the once again refugee problem and it has also threat or might be possible that in the name of refugees, the wave of non-state actors or extremist mind groups make their possible existence in Pakistan which may lead the country towards more instability not in the context of security but also make Pakistan’s economy more fragile and brittle. The ongoing CPEC project could be at risk due to rising security challenges. It might be possible that the flood of massive refugees from Afghanistan is reciprocally the emergence of freedom movements in KPK and Balochistan e.g. Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and Baloch group etc.
It might be possible that the influx of refugees make ethnicity-orientated extremist groups, institutions or organizations which may lead towards the brain-washing of the upcoming generations and push them towards formation of more extremists groups and rise the in-depth instability, uncertainty, vagueness, elusiveness, tenuousness and delicacy in the country. In addition, the categorically Pakistan’s answer “Absolut Not ” to America may deteriorate Pakistan-US relations in forthcoming days. Additionally, the other major powers will try their best to fill the vacuum which is left by the USA in Afghanistan. India is on the top priority list because India has already done massive investment in Afghanistan and will use the soil against Pakistan, as as witnessed by the arrest of the Indian RAW officer Kulbashan.
The world, the USA, western powers, and particularly Pakistan have now illusionary policy paths towards Taliban 2.0 or towards Afghanistan regarding their recognition or acceptance. Somehow, International and regional security specialists have different opinions regarding this matter but mostly called this withdrawal as “gathering the storm”. Interestingly, Today world is at a crossroad, any decision at regional or global level has serious ramifications. Virtuous decisions will call the peace and the unscrupulous decisions can call the catastrophic. The Americans pulling out decision and withdrawing its appearance from Afghanistan has serious implications and for regional countries. In the case of Pakistan, the time will decide whether it is “de-light” or “demon-knight” for Pakistan and which type of policies will be taken by Pakistan in the upcoming future regarding handling Taliban 2.0 and Afghanistan dilemma.
References
1. Nasrullah Ali, “Withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan: Security Implications for Pakistan,” PRIF, August 20, 2021.
2. TTP in disarray after halt to Indian funding for the group: Fawad”, Dawn, August 24, 2021.
3. Syed Raza Hassan, “India, Afghanistan gave help to Pakistani Taliban, says group’s ex-spokesman,” Reuters, April 26, 2017.
4. Islamuddin Sajid, “Pakistan urges UN to act against India over terror sponsorship,” Asia-Pacific, February 11, 2021.
Rana Danish Nisar – The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).