By Zara Mansoor – The book “Universalizing Nuclear Nonproliferation Norms: A Regional Framework for the South Asian Nuclear Weapon States” is authored by Dr. Adil Sultan.
Author suggests measures to normalize Pakistan India relations by addressing their sensitivities and inclining towards regional nonproliferation core. The book is authored by Dr. Adil Sultan who remained associated with Pakistan Air Force, under the National Command Authority (Pakistan) he continued to be a part of Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and also served in the government on nuclear arms control related issues. He is currently serving in Air University, Islamabad as acting Dean and Chair Department of Aerospace Sciences and Strategic Studies.
The book reveals his own personal opinions and does not reflect the Government of Pakistan and Strategic Plans Division’s views. It makes known all the concealed features of arms control approach and nuclear fabric mainly of South Asian region. This written piece of account puts emphasis on India Pakistan’s nuclear contests towards each other which have led the two states to war number of times and clearly depicts the absolute draft of nuclear nonproliferation regime and its intents, nuclear governing mechanisms opted by South Asian states, their struggles in relation to proliferation puzzle and arms regulation and disarmament. Further, book focuses on the non-NPT nuclear possessor states mainly including Pakistan, India and Israel which are putting obstacles in the way of universalizing weaponries mechanism and nuclear disarmament norms to stabilize the global environment.
India’s recent steps towards its hegemonic goals and desires to be reckoned as global power led to the change in security orientations of both states, gave rise to arms competition and nuclear deterrence which continued to signify the importance of these nuclear powered states in NPT. The bargain among the NWS and non NPT NWS with especial respect to South Asian region has remained the focal point throughout the book while calling attention to their confidence and security building measures, regional nonproliferation regime, atomic control and also turning the spotlight on the elemental principles of NPT and nuclear and nonnuclear equipment controller regimes.
In addition, the book is divided into eight sections containing leading areas with themes. Also at points it has presented the theoretical notions and practical explanations of nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation management while also giving center stage to the concerns of the global community regarding non NPT NWS.
In the very first part, the author focuses that the nuclear states of South Asia didn’t disturb the prevailing edifice of NPT nor violate its international structure while enhancing their nuclear arsenals and have built up their conventional capabilities in order to satisfy their high level insecurities in the region. At times they have shown their willingness to join the nuclear nonproliferation regime but without giving up on their nuclear weapons as once state acquires nukes, it is hard to surrender even if it no longer on a side of existential threats but the expansion benefits some higher authorities which shows their reluctance. According to Sultan, without offering any quid pro quo approach none of the state would comply to the treaty based disarmament norms and obligations and to bring them in the NPT they need to be encouraged on the regional level nonproliferation framework as the unilateral disarmament seems unrealistic here. To his credit, Regional nonproliferation basis has been proposed which seems the most viable level of analysis to understand the complexed pattern of enmity underlying the region. The countries have remained with interdependent securitization priorities and can found some common grounds to work jointly and help address the insecurities and sensitivities to normalize the relations.
One major argument Sultan raised, no theory is dealing with nuclear proliferation appropriately so far and all the existing are limited to find the solutions but the main point still remains unanswered and undiscovered – what would constitute knowledge in the area of proliferation. Further, the author uses the relevance of the Regional Security Complex Theory – propounded by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever to the South Asian nuclear competency and believes it can provide better understanding of nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation framework in this perplexed setting of the region.
Under the other two chapters of the book he takes up the debate to South Asian proliferation puzzle with respect to their proliferation drivers and nuclear nonproliferation regime. Many factors drive the proliferation of countries including prestige, internal-politics, deterrence purposes but the security factor always remains at the top. But, in case of South Asia the causes remain somewhere hidden and their identification is somewhat necessary to bring the two states under NPT obligations and to respect the disarmament norms. Further, the security model has been applied under the light of necessity to enhance national security against foreign threats to territorial integrity and state’s sovereignty by developing nuclear weapons program. Strategic chain reaction began after US possession of nuclear arsenals and action-reaction syndrome led other states towards the path of independent nuclear capabilities. Security Dilemma best describes this development sequence and also is applicable in the Pakistan India case as the Indian weapons posed serious threat to Pakistan which provided accurate justification to restore strategic balance in the region. It is also to be noted that all the nuclear “haves” states provided security reasons for acquisition of weapons but Pakistan and Israel are the only states which enhanced nuclear capabilities in response to the actual existential threats.
He also sees the nuclear proliferation through norms model which paves way the acquiring of nuclear weapons or restraint in developing as symbol of state’s identity and modernity. In addition, by developing nuclear model, Indians also desired to attain permanent membership of United Nations Security Council. While not taking into account the considerations of military needs, India is continuously growing its arsenals, producing new equipment and all seems as the consequence of “multicausality” driven by the main factor prestige.
Moreover, while conversing facts about the nuclear nonproliferation regime he displays the main architects dealing with it which includes International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – responsible for the peaceful weapons program, NPT – liable to prevent the horizontal and vertical proliferation and other Export Control Regimes supervising the nuclear weapons delivery system throughout the world. He further puts emphasis on the failures currently faced by NPT which largely challenge its standing in the international arena and needs to be addressed otherwise can pose greater threats.
Another highlighted point is, not all the non NPT nuclear weapon states are equal to the NPT members and a clear cut example is provided of India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement. India as a non NPT member is always accorded more privileges as compared to others and the reason considered behind is its ally formation with the US.
In the next two phases different approaches of the South Asian nuclear possessor states and their active participation in all the nuclear related issues have been stressed and several technology control regimes have also been discoursed. India and Pakistan both had their own reasons to refuse NPT norms and CTBT and their disinclination towards CTBT had several other factors to focus on. Also, both of the countries didn’t join the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons but their regional framework may help providing the strength to global norms of nonproliferation and their recognition as respectable NWS. India was vocal towards balanced set of obligations for NWS and NNWS while Pakistan was less concerned about it and more focused to prevent NNWS to acquire weapons and also considered NPT as the landmark in the history. Further he elucidates, four major export control regimes that regulate nuclear weapons and WMD related trade. These regimes include Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, The Australia Group, Wassenaar Arrangement, Multi Nuclear Approaches and describe their function related to the export of sensitive material related to nuclear programs but from previous some years they serve the interest of major powers of the globe.
Sultan succinctly presented the in-depth information regarding the nuclear treaties, export control regimes and India Pakistan involvement according to their own respective concerns and all it delivers a very impartial yet interesting view of the author and scrutinized study is merely with facts and reference to nuclearization of South Asian states. This provides a good account to aware the readers of the historical scenario and linking it to the ongoing environment.
Furthermore, the nuclear governance of South Asia is also deeply examined with respect to the India and Pakistan nuclear infrastructure and both of the states have their own legal binding obligations and legal and international instruments, regulatory authorities, training facilities, export control regimes and Institutions for adopting national measures in order to safeguard their nuclear programs. Different ordinances and Acts have played different role in their nuclear governance and all have been well explained through practical and theoretical notions. Additionally, UNSC Resolution 1540 which mainly focuses on the nuclear security from going into the wrong hands and Nuclear Security Summit Process has also been debated to create a better understanding of Nuclear program safety, security arrangements and nuclear nonproliferation aspects.
Moreover, part seven highlights the Confidence or Trust Building Measures which have provided the mutual trust aspects between India and Pakistan in the earlier years but, long-term peace in the region couldn’t achieved. It also provides improvements in the socio-political and economic filed apart from military element.
The book has finely explained the communication measures – categorized as Hotlines between the India and Pakistan’s military commanders and top officials in the environment of mistrust by giving examples of practical use in 1965 war. Pre 1998 CBMs are discussed in detail to highlight the Pakistan’s positive role and struggles to prevent the nuclear weapons in South Asian region in order to maintain the stability.
Besides, it is being argued that NPT’s failure to integrate the three NNWS (India, Pakistan, Israel) into the mainstream nonproliferation regime is questioning its strength and value. Dilemma of NPT and non NPT states is presented to provide a clear picture of the threats considering by NPT members.
Universalizing the NPT norms requires inclusive and collaborative approaches and there seemed no serious effort in this regard. Further, regional nonproliferation regime would be operationalizing only when the NPT recognized states would accept India and Pakistan as NWS, until and unless both of them would not confine themselves under the obligations of nuclear nonproliferation regime.
More according to my approach, book presents the very definite and conclusive account of Pakistan and India’s nuclear weapons earlier efforts, limits, their nuclear governance structure, CBMs including constraint measures, transparency, and communication measures, NPT’s debate regarding bringing them to negotiation table, acts and ordinances, potential obstacles, disarmament aspects, regional framework of nuclear nonproliferation regime and much more. The long ongoing debate regarding South Asian nuclear states whether any state would give up on its weapons if the other does is openly debated and concluded very fair-mindedly by presenting and defending the idea of regional level framework while negating the unilateral trials and exemplifying its failures. All the arms control and disarmament treaties India and Pakistan taken part in have been thoroughly examined and Pakistan’s role in enhancing the confidence building measures with India are also been displayed in a neutral way. Further, historical and current account is visible in a symbolic nonaligned method. The different subheadings are composed to benefit the reader with separate nuclear control and conduct methods of India and Pakistan and a powerful correlation has also been delineated. Their interconnectedness and interdependent security issues can be dealt with the help of regional framework and for that Regional Nonproliferation Regime – RNR carrying features of NPT is suggested for both armed states. This bilateral nonproliferation treaty would be helpful in bringing stability and peaceful regional environment. If both of the nuclear states agreed to share practices and experiences in the nuclear technology this can augment the regional export control measures and bring about slight improvement in their relations.
Parallel to this, the parts are soundly articulated and exhibit a very neutral narrative concerning both nuclear possessor countries of South Asia and equal stretch is contributed towards each of them. As well, fault lines are not concealed but deliberately discussed and it’s been unwrapped that all the non NPT NWS are not being treated on similar basis by the recognized member states and every so often it has been observed that India is granted with heavy support as compared to Pakistan. Moreover, it gets to know that Pakistan always desired regional stability and nonproliferation in the South Asian region but India restrained to bind itself in the obligations of the treaty and remained ambitious in its nuclear unit. Many hidden or wrapped facts are being unwrapped without any hesitancy and being partially.
The failures of nonproliferation regime are discussed and by highlighting the past experiences of India and Pakistan and strategic competition rampant in the region, formal and informal methods that would pave way towards substantial symbolic designs are essential to bring regional peace and stability. Also, universalizing the nonproliferation norms especially in South Asian region requires balancing methods to counter challenging situations prevailing in the region. Unilateral way of arms reduction can never succeed in South Asia as the security dilemma, anarchy, mistrust are few elements rampant and have survived a long history in this region and NPT’s dual role in treating its member states and non NPT NWS is giving further hike to sensitive scenarios and also framing-up its discriminatory facets.
Sultan’s book is a unique contribution in the field of academic community especially for those who are interested in nuclear studies in relation to South Asia. His book provides detailed facts and explanations with strong insight. Strategic dimensions of South Asian region under the shadow of regional instability and insecure environment have fairly been explored.
Zara Mansoor (Political Analyst, Islamabad, Pakistan)
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