World Geostrategic Insights interview with James L. Bruno on the current conduct of U.S. foreign policy, Donald Trump’s alleged cognitive decline, the stakes in the November U.S. presidential election, and how the U.S. stance toward the Ukrainian conflict might change if Trump wins.
James L. Bruno is a bestselling author, foreign affairs writer. public speaker, TV commentator. He has previously served as a military intelligence analyst at the United States Department of Defense, and as a foreign service officer in the U.S. Department of State.
Q1 – You are a former diplomat and author of four bestselling political fiction and spy stories. In your book, titled “The Foreign Circus: Why Foreign Policy Should Not Be Left in the Hands of Diplomats, Spies and Political Hacks, Kindle Edition“, you provide a first-hand view from inside the U.S. foreign policy establishment, asserting that U.S. foreign policy is in the hands of clueless, self-serving and politically corrupt people. This book was published in 2014. Do you currently hold the same view? How do you judge the current conduct of U.S. foreign policy?
A1 – My non-fiction book, “Foreign Circus” is written in a satirical way. I use humor to drive home views on real problems, e,g., our shameful system of literally selling ambassadorships and other senior diplomatic positions to utterly unqualified political campaign donors and cronies. As I write in the book, “The United States is the only industrialized country to award diplomatic posts as political spoils, often to wealthy campaign contributors in an outmoded system that rivals the patronage practices of banana republics, dictatorships and two-bit monarchies.”
Personally, I hold President Biden’s national security team in high regard. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan displays nuance, even-temperedness and deep knowledge beyond his relatively young age and appears adept at coordinating policy among disparate agencies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken strikes this former diplomat as in control of a fast-moving train of crises and foreign policy challenges. CIA Director William Burns, himself a veteran diplomat, provides spot-on assessments on Russia, the Middle East and other hot issues; he is also often tasked with carrying out sensitive diplomacy — highly unusual for an intelligence chief. And Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin brings to his job decades of military and policy experience. While there is criticism that this team is too cautious on lethal aid to Ukraine, it is important to keep in mind that it is better to be judicious on sensitive policy issues and keep things from getting out of control than it is to try to rein in a policy that goes off the rails — e.g., quick escalation of hostilities with Russia. The administration also receives a lot of criticism over Israel-Gaza, but that is a whole other topic unto itself. Finally, what you seldom hear about this national security team is bitter in-fighting, disjointedness or ego conflicts. President Biden takes on the same dictum as did President Obama: no drama in his team. It is the same quality of leadership exercised by President George H. W. Bush’s outstanding National Security Advisor, Gen. Brent Scowcroft, who is held up by scholars as a model NSC chief.
Q2 – On November 5, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. Trump seems well positioned to win the White House. In your latest writings you point out Donald Trump’s cognitive decline, which you say is largely ignored by the mainstream media. However, even without considering his alleged neurological deterioration, it is widely believed that Trump’s eventual election as president could pose a danger to the internal stability of the United States. What is your opinion? What could happen if Trump wins a second term?
A2 – Over 500 licensed medical and mental health professionals signed a statement asserting that Trump shows clear and classic signs of “probable dementia,” including worsening thought process, disjointed speech, tangentiality, paraphasias, irritability, paranoia, persecutory ideation, impulsivity, a lumbering gait, etc. Much of his public speaking is incomprehensible — in contrast with a couple of years ago, and he sometimes falls into gibberish as his declining brain “sundowns.” His handlers are increasingly controlling his public appearances to reduce exposure to his obvious fallibilities. For some reason, our mainstream media are not focusing on this, opting instead to dwell on “Biden’s age.” Add to this Trump’s sociopathy and malignant narcissism and we have one seriously dangerous individual, a convicted criminal, no less, who should not be allowed anywhere near executive power.
In my latest newsletter article, “Allies on Edge: A Trump Win & the End of Pax Americana,” I describe the high anxiety among our allies over the prospect of a second Trump presidency. European policymakers are displaying increasing pessimism about the United States, many convinced Trump will win the election. In my view, if Trump returns to power, as I write, “it would be the same as if President Franklin Roosevelt had sided with Hitler instead of the Allies. Trump would form a new de facto ‘Pact of Steel’ with Putin and other autocrats. NATO would collapse. The former East Bloc lines would be more or less restored. Xi would seize Taiwan. Our post-World War II allies — particularly Western Europe, Japan, South Korea — would be compelled to accommodate themselves to the new order, essentially compromising their sovereignty and yielding to the demands and whims of the new autocrat-hegemonists. Democratic governments would be replaced by fascist regimes.” I may sound apocalyptic, but the stakes are incredibly high. As a result, NATO governments are quietly doing contingency planning. And President Emmanuel Macron is advocating for European “strategic autonomy.” As an American, I am very worried about the future. Toxic right-wing populism is a pathology which has been metastasizing globally, including in E.U. nations. Let us hope we have the wisdom collectively to defeat it with balanced policies.
Q3 – Biden seems unpopular and doubts are often raised, even given his age, about his mental and physical fitness to handle a second term. Some analysts point out that the next Presidential election will be mainly a referendum on which candidate Americans think is the least worst option. What is your opinion?
A3 – President Biden sometimes mixes up names or stumbles over words; he also has a congenital stutter. “Medical experts say these are just the workings of a normally aging brain, what are sometimes called ‘senior moments,’ and not (absent further clinical investigation) signs of dementia or predictive of cognitive decline,” the Washington Post recently reported. Biden is 81. Should he be reelected, he would be 86 upon completing his second term in office. This is a valid point for concern. Though his legislative successes have been exemplary, and the U.S. economy is strong, Biden’s advanced age detracts from his policy achievements. Public perception is not to be underestimated in politics. Biden is definitely not “the least worst option.” The choice in this election is starkly clear: democracy vs autocracy, sanity vs psychopathy, stability vs chaos. Never in history have we Americans faced such a choice.
Q4 – Oleksandr Kraiev – director of the North America Program at the Ukrainian Foreign Policy Prism Council, said in a recent interview with World Geostrategic Insights that “as far as Trump is concerned, I think it’s more of a political stance and tool for him – when Biden is seen as weak on Ukraine, Trump pushes for more weapons and support. When Biden has been active on the Ukraine issue, Trump has opposed any military aid.” What is your opinion? Could a Trump victory change the U.S. position on the Ukrainian conflict?
A4 – Trump has been an enemy of Ukraine, most recently opposing further aid. He holds a personal grudge against Volodymyr Zelensky for having not succumbed to Trump’s effort to extort him in 2019, for which Trump was impeached. And, let us not forget his disgraceful declaration, “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want.” Finally, Trump boasted, “I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.” Few serious people doubt that he would waste any time selling out Ukraine to his strongman idol Vladimir Putin.
James L. Bruno – Former diplomat, Writer, News Commentator, Amazon Bestseller, and Contributing writer at The Washington Monthly, Dispatches From Exile, and Diplo Denizen.
The opinions and characterizations in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent official positions of the U.S. government.