By Anton Evstratov
Russia uses the emerging socio-economic crisis in Turkmenistan to draw this country into the wake of its foreign policy. Since the beginning of 2017, the situation in Turkmenistan has been developing and is being discussed in two planes that are fundamentally different from each other – official and unofficial.
In particular, official information in the state media about the economic situation in the country shows a stable GDP growth of 6%, which is reflected in the commissioning of a number of new enterprises (a glass factory in the Akhal region, a seaport in the city of Turkmenbashi, the Garabogazkargomid gas chemical plant, Mary Power Plant, etc.) and in the prospects of Turkmenistan joining the top three CIS countries in terms of GDP per capita by 2021.
At the same time, unofficial information suggests otherwise. Turkmenistan ranks 8th out of 160 countries in the global corruption rating, according to Transparency International.
It should also be noted the restriction of media freedom in Turkmenistan. So, according to this indicator, official Ashgabat was ahead of only North Korea and Eritrea.
At the same time, the standard of living of the country’s population continues to decline steadily. Prices for essential goods are rising. For example, since July 2018, the cost of a loaf of bread has increased five-fold and as of January 2019 is $ 0.25. Rising food prices are accompanied by their deficit in state-owned stores with government-set prices.
It should be noted the existing imbalance between the public and private sectors of trade. Private outlets offer a wide range of goods at prices higher than in state institutions, while in the public sector of trade with fixed prices there is an almost complete absence of even the most necessary.
According to a number of experts, problems of a socio-economic nature in Turkmenistan are caused by the following factors:
– a fall in world gas prices (which led Turkmenistan to a trade deficit of $ 10 billion);
– government pressure on the private sector of the economy (lack of real support by local executive bodies for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as massive cases of administrative pressure on entrepreneurs and a high level of corruption);
– the gradual cessation of the functioning of some enterprises that are more unprofitable and unnecessary for the authorities;
– artificial support by the authorities of the national currency – manat (at the same time, on the black market, the manat, as once the ruble in the USSR, is completely different, and most of the imported currency is purchased there).
It should be noted that even before the beginning of 2017, when the situation in the country began to deteriorate rapidly, the standard of living in the province was low and earlier (despite official information, there was an acute shortage of work,
and local residents were forced to either process cotton on state fields in difficult conditions, or engage in private pick-up, or work seasonally as laborers).
In the described period, a significant part of the population had a total family income of not more than $ 100, which was not enough to cover the necessary expenses and found the only way to improve the material situation through labor migration to Turkey. However, in 2018, the socio-economic crisis shifted to the capital, Ashgabat.
It should be noted that at the beginning of 2017, under the pretext of a transition to a market economy, the authorities abolished social benefits for the population on gas, water and electricity, which caused significant damage to all sectors of Turkmen society, but most of all to unemployed and socially unprotected citizens.
Since that time, there has been a budget deficit in Turkmenistan for various projects, including those of national importance. So, for example, the Turkish company Polimeks left the country, halting the construction of a high-speed road.
An indicator of an acute shortage of funds may be a government refusal to finance from the budget of the National Academy of Sciences. The corresponding decision of President Berdimuhamedov, voiced in the media in early February 2019, will be implemented gradually over three years. In 2017-2018, a significant number of cultural and healthcare facilities (theaters, cultural centers, television channels, clinics, hospitals) and public transport were transferred to cost accounting.
As in the case of the abolition of social benefits for gas, water and electricity, the state motivates such decisions by the transition to a market economy. At the same time, such statements are doubts in Turkmen society and are associated with the authorities’ desire to fill the budget deficit.
It should be noted that before the beginning of the 2010s, when problems of a socio-economic nature arose, the damage was mainly suffered by representatives of national minorities – Russians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, etc. (partly due to domestic Nazism of local officials, partly due to the authorities’ desire to redirect popular discontent to representatives of non-titular nations), however, to date, their number has significantly decreased. This circumstance practically excludes the possibility for the Turkmen authorities to shift responsibility for the decline in living standards.
It is important to note that from a scientific point of view, Turkmenistan is a state where, firstly, widespread social protest is possible, and secondly, there is a tendency to the transition of social discontent to the political plane.
The fact is that, according to the social stability ratings being developed recently, both at the corporate and state levels, the greatest potential for protest is not entirely impoverished communities, but those whose material level is only a few, often briefly and suddenly, albeit very significantly worsened.
Such was the pre-revolutionary situation in the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, France of the second half of the 18th century, in the post-colonial states of Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In Turkmenistan, the same thing is happening now. Moreover, as a rule, a society is ready to protest if its hopes are not justified to one degree or another.
This thesis also fully complies with the countries and regions mentioned as an example, as well as many others – for example, Syria in the early 2000s, where the liberal reforms of Bashar al-Assad did not meet the expectations of a certain part of the population, but it is true for Turkmenistan, where instead of proclaimed by the president “ epochs of power ”,“ prosperity ”and“ abundance ”- the line for bread and essential goods.
On the other hand, despite the authorities’ reliance on the power structures, the latter also do not demonstrate impeccable work. The police often shy away from fulfilling their immediate duties – not only in complex cases, but also in everyday conflict situations, as was the case with the mass brawl in Ashgabat in 2017. At the same time, this agency was marked by corruption at all levels, up to the attempts of ordinary members to collect money from passers-by for appearing while drunk or on the street for “obscene behavior”.
The special services also turned out to be powerless against real threats to the security of the state – the Islamic terrorist underground. In secular, religiously indifferent Turkmenistan, cells of the Islamic State, Nurjular, and Hizb ut-Tahrir were recorded. Several hundred citizens of Turkmenistan were participants in the hostilities in Syria on the side of radical Islamist groups.
Moreover, religious extremism penetrates the armed forces, where it spreads quite quickly, both among ordinary and among officers. Similarly, religious and generally radical ideas are spread in all closed collectives – in the armed forces, correctional institutions, educational institutions, but it is in the armed forces that the trend is especially dangerous and can affect the political situation.
Both the social protest of the broad masses of the population and the political disagreement of adherents with the authorities are becoming religious.
Thus, despite the fact that currently Turkmenistan is not threatened with hunger and a complete economic collapse, it is possible to note the presence of a “pre-revolutionary situation” in the republic, which is not able to gain visible forms only because of the lack of serious opposition political force capable of fulfilling organizational functions kernels.
Such a force in Turkmenistan does not exist due to the isolation of the population from politics, which has taken place throughout the recent history of the republic. In these realities, the banner of change can be raised at best by one of the power structures, at worst – by religious extremists. However, at present, the prestige, and as a consequence, the political opportunities of the former in the country is small, and the influence of the latter cannot yet be called determining.
The socio-political situation in Turkmenistan is difficult to assess by foreign experts, due to the closed nature of the country and the lack of any objective information or statistics. The very presence of problems is determined mainly at the household level – according to eyewitnesses, or by indirect signs, for example, reassignment of officials.
In this regard, the findings are confirmed by the available information – in November 2018, the Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources Ovezmyrat Yazmyradov lost his post.
At the end of 2017 – at the beginning of 2018, there were personnel shifts among the security forces, which clearly indicates the unsatisfactory work of the security forces. This situation, combined with the social problems mentioned above, on the one hand, and the destructive Afghan factor, on the other, poses a threat to Turkmenistan’s national security. Turkmen troops have demonstrated the inability and inability to withstand even the insignificant forces of Afghan militants during the conflict in the area of the settlement Takhtabazar (Mary province), which cost Ashgabat the lives of several dozen military personnel.
Currently, the Turkmen authorities are taking emergency measures to restore order in the security forces, primarily in the army, and are conducting military exercises (including joint exercises with the Russian Federation). However, the implementation of these measures, most likely, cannot be enough, due to the depth of systemic problems that have developed over several decades.
In the current situation, Turkmenistan, previously the most “independent” of the Central Asian republics, has never been a member of any of the unions initiated by Russia – the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the EAEU, and which has been emphatically distancing itself even from cooperation within the CIS, has more and more prospects of getting the Russian military into orbit -political influence.
The first steps in this direction have already been taken – a visit to Ashgabat by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who stated the need to jointly strengthen the security of the republic, a meeting between President Berdimuhamedov and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi … .., as well as a visit to Turkmenistan by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov January 6-7, 2019.
Moscow now can not only help Turkmenistan to strengthen its security and protect against the Afghan threat, but also contribute to the sale of Turkmen gas, which Gazprom had practically stopped buying earlier.
Moreover, the Russian Federation, as you know, always works with official governments and regimes of partner countries – despite their problems, poor reputation, corruption, etc. In this sense, Berdimuhamedov’s cooperation with Russia, and, possibly, on any conditions, is not only a matter of national importance, but also of his own, possibly physical, survival.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)