Against the background of the operation “Source of Peace” in the north-eastern part of Syria, Ankara runs the risk of ruining relations with Iran for a long time. Despite the fact that the confrontation between Ankara and Tehran is unlikely to lead to armed conflict, the parties can use the methods of diplomatic blockade of each other, especially if the Ayatollah regime begins to consider Turkey as a threat for a coup in Syria.
Until Ankara makes active attempts to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s anti-Turkish capabilities are limited. Moreover, the joint participation of countries in a coalition under the auspices of Moscow does not allow them to openly quarrel with each other. Meanwhile, this does not mean that Tehran has friendly feelings for Syria.
So, initially the relationship between the Ayatollah regime and official Damascus was built as a situational alliance against the “Islamic State”. At the same time, holding in power relatively neutral towards Tehran Bashar al-Assad serves as a guarantee of security for Tehran, which fears that the defeat of the Syrian regime may contribute to the spread of ISIS influence on Iranian territory.
Among other things, Turkey’s attempts to put pressure on Baghdad could also lead to an aggravation of relations between Tehran and Ankara. The fact is that after the overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, pro-Iranian-minded politicians came to power. The threat of losing control over them is perceived by the ayatollah regime as extremely painful, due to which Ankara’s desire to force Baghdad to ensure Turkish interests will cause a strong protest from Tehran.
The confrontation between Turkey and Iran did not arise because of Syria. The Ayatollah regime fears that Ankara, as a result of political activity in the Middle East, will become the only regional hegemon that will begin to impede Tehran’s plans to create an extensive Shiite axis.
In addition, Ankara is quite annoying with Iran’s nuclear program. In other words, Turkey does not intend to allow Iran the owning of nuclear weapons. Therefore, as Iranian nuclear ambitions develop, the confrontation between the two countries will only intensify.
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