By Manisha Ghosh
Turkey and Russia till now have relations with diplomatic fluctuations and tensions. In fact, Ankara’s past approach to Moscow was to maintain a traditional NATO attitude of cautiousness towards countries outside of the alliance. However, all the equations have been drifted after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber over the Syrian border in November 2015.
The world expected that it will ratchet up tensions between the two nations and Moscow will retaliate soon, but the visionary Russian President Vladimir Putin had long term business to settle- to win over Turkey. With the first lot of Russian most advanced defense system S-400 reaching in Ankara, despite ire of the NATO group, especially US threats of sanctions, Mr. Putin’s chuckle may change to a smile to be in a win-win situation over the NATO.
Growing Relation with Russia
A burgeoning strategic relationship between Turkey and Russia has clearly been envisaged and the most important factor in this development is its pace in all sectors- political, commercial and military. This strategic relation has been escalated to a new dimension when Ankara decided to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense system. Moreover, another groundbreaking ceremony between the two states is establishment of the Akkuyu nuclear project in April, and tremendous advancement on the Turk-Stream natural gas pipeline.
The aftermath equation of Turkey, shooting down a Russian bomber for which a strong retaliation from Moscow was expected, didn’t flow in the mainstream, rather the bilateral relation between the two states remained standstill, instead of agitation. The credit of this indifference of Russia towards its military sovereignty goes to the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was attentive on reaching out long term benefit for Russia, rather than short term gain.
He stayed focused multiple collateral strategic goals from defeating the Syrian anti-government rebels and bolstering the power of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad; to advantageously exploit the fissures in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO, especially the declining U.S.-Turkey relations. Evolving regional equations also privileged his stake.
The long term ally of NATO, Turkey, which during a long history remained non-aligned to Russia, announced to buy the most advanced defense system from Russia- a rival state for NATO after three and a half years of attacking the Russian fighter jet, despite intimidation and warnings from the U.S. and NATO.
For Putin,Turkey is a luxurious triumph, which even his Soviet pioneers didn’t comprise and for this victory, he only afforded a few compromises. He condemned Turkish aggression of bombing down the Russian jet but mischievously refrained to revenge back. Last year, despite protestations from Damascus, he remained standstill when Turkey invaded Afrin, a largely Kurdish town on the Syrian side. Moscow also languished to spread the war to Idlib, Syria’s last rebel enclave where pro-Turkey rebels are also stationed.
As a result of those compromises, Moscow will now be eyeing to expand its naval bases from Black sea to the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus Strait. This critical expansion will also open newer opportunities for Russia to deepen its engagement in West Asia and North Africa in the long term. With these background aspirations, playing back of its Mind, Moscow initiated discussions with Turkey and Iran for truce, and reined in the Syrian government. It becomes translucent, how step by step, Mr. Putin lured Turkey to his side portraying mutual benefits for greater good.
Strains with USA
Dates back during the Cold War, Turkey was viewed as a key buffer for the Western powers against Soviet Union, therefore the US maintained a close relationship with Ankara, even after the disintegration of Soviet Union. Turkey geographical position is the USP for the Atlantic alliances. However, Turkey due to its own presence in a turbulent region is surrounded with numerous problems, like threats of front line wars against terrorism to irregular migrations, porous border issues with Karabakh and Georgia to Crimea and Cyprus. So many monster issues within a NATO alliance itself also reflect a failure of NATO to maintain stability in the regime.
With high risk endeavors like US sanctions amidst a struggling economy, the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan is overlooking US and is inclining towards Moscow. This kind of unprecedented decision from Ankara didn’t appear in one day, rather there are series of misunderstanding and failed bets from both Turkey and NATO have laid to this kind of situation.
It all started during the 2003 Iraq War when Ankara repudiated the idea of being an American launch-pad for invasion. America retaliated while the Obama administration, upon Ankara’s request, refused to interfere in Syria on behalf of the rebels and overthrow the Assad regime.
During the Syrian war with ISIS, Turkey initially let the ISIS rebels grow and facilitated with its porous border to overturn Assad. Later Ankara supported the Syrian-Kurdish rebels, the group which ideologically was tied with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, an anti-Turkey jihadist group.
The Kurds later fought back to repel the ISIS aggression with open support of US. Ultimately the Syrian policy of Turkey proved to be blunder. It was unable to topple the Syrian president as Russia and Iran directly backed him; the ISIS turned back, carrying out a host of terror attacks in 2016 and the battle-hardened Kurdish rebels demanded Kurdistan that comprises a part of Turkey itself. As Kurds were US’s partners and US troops were stationed at Syrian-Kurdistan, supporting their demands, Turkey’s interests directly clash with the U.S.’s.
Furthermore, Ankara blames Fethullah Gulen, a US- based Turkish cleric to be one of the main culprits for the failed coup-bid against the current President Erdogan. Turkey issued an arrest warrant against him and later wanted him to be extradited to Turkey. Washington rejected the proposal hand to hand. Moreover US also turned down Turkey’s interest of buying the Patriot Defense system. All those misunderstandings and piling up outrage against US, Turkey slowly focused on Russia where Vladimir Putin was waiting to greet Erdogan with a flower bouquet and grand reception.
Hence, Ankara refused to bow to US and its sanctions and finalized the deal with Moscow to obtain its most advanced defense system the ‘S-400 Triumph’ as an alternative of the US made ‘Patriot Missile defense system’ and regarded the matter as a matter of national sovereignty. US suspects that if Turkey integrates S-400 Triumph into its defenses, Moscow might be able to access sensitive information about advanced multi-role stealth fighter F-35, made in US, which Turkey already have bought from Washington.
With transforming Turkish foreign policy, the evolving bilateral ties with Russia seems to be practical; however it also should possess significant dilemma for Ankara, attenuating its links with the West. In recent future, Turkey needs to strengthen its position in the international arena adopting a positive and balanced approach to enhance its flexibility.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)