Denis Korkodinov – Interview with Ediz Ekinci
Turkey is going to start a new military operation “Kiran-5” in Syria. This information was confirmed by the Turkish Ministry of Internal Affairs on November 8, 2019. The objective of the operation is to continues with the elimination of Kurdish militias. Sources say that the operation will be carried out in the countryside of the provinces of Diyarbakir, Bingol and Mus.
Thus, Ankara emphasized that after the operation “Source of Peace”, it does not intend to leave the borders of Syria until the complete elimination of the Kurdish settlements. To achieve this goal, Recep Erdogan will unlikely pay attention to the positions of the United States and Russia.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Ediz Ekinci, Senior Analyst, expert for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT), for UN and NATO and post-conflict zones in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Abkhazia.
1. On November 5, 2019, Turkish President Recep Erdogan stated that the Kurdish YPG militias were not withdrawn from the border regions of Syria, despite the agreements reached with Moscow and Washington, and that units of the American army are still conducting joint patrols of the territory, despite statements by Donald trump on the withdrawal of troops from Syria. Does this indicate that Turkey, having decided to launch a new operation, “Kiran-5” actually canceled the existing agreements with Russia and the United States? If Ankara admits that YPG has relocated to Iraq, will Turkey launch an anti-terrorist operation in Iraq?
– Any military operations are planned and carried out to achieve a predetermined and announced final result. Operation Kiran 5 in northeast Syria is no exception. It is, in fact, a continuation of Turkish stability efforts, which includes the elimination of the armed groups “YPG” and the militants of the “Islamic State”. This has created the necessary conditions for the return of Syrian refugees, of which 3.6 million are in Turkey.
According to the comprehensive memorandum of understanding signed between the Russian Federation and Turkey in Sochi on October 22, 2019, the Russian military police and Syrian border guards were instructed to facilitate the removal of YPG terrorists and their weapons to a depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border. And both sides must take the necessary measures to prevent the penetration of terrorist elements into the zone of Operation Source of Peace.
Since the 150 hours required for the withdrawal of Kurdish armed groups expired, YPG militants launched dozens of attacks using mortar shells, anti-tank missiles and other weapons that claimed the lives of civilians.
Joint Russian-Turkish security forces are closely monitoring and reporting these attacks. Along with a low level of cooperation at the tactical level, coordination and high-level consultations continue within the framework of the agreement reached in Sochi on October 22, 2019.
Thus, the opposition to these acts strengthens the terms of the agreement between the Russian Federation and Turkey on the creation of a security zone for the return of Syrian refugees and the prevention of terrorist threats from Turkey from Syria. However, as I see from sources in the media, attempts are being made to destroy the common understanding and joint efforts of both countries, which, it seems to me, should be supported by the actions of interested parties in timely and objective public information.
The culmination of understanding and joint fight against terrorism between Turkey and Iraq is the agreement on the fight against terrorism signed on October 15, 2009. Turkey launched counter-terrorism operations in Iraq many years ago and continues to conduct these operations when necessary, based on the legal framework reached between Ankara and Baghdad. Therefore, if it turns out that the “YPG” was relocated to Iraq, Turkey has every right to start a new military operation before the complete destruction of the Kurdish armed forces, no matter in which country they are located.
2. The Turkish Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the information about the capture of Rasmia Awad, who is the older sister of the murdered leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. The most remarkable thing is not only that the capture of Rasmia Awad was carried out by the Turkish army, but also that the capture was carried out in the city of Aazaz in northeast Syria. I note that according to information from Turkish sources bordering the city of Aazaz in the Syrian governorate of Aleppo since March 2017, as a result of the previous operation, the Euphrates Shield, is under the control of the Turkish armed forces. Thus, Rasmia Awad lived practically in the zone of Turkish control. I can assume that her place of residence in Ankara was known for a relatively long time. However, her arrest was made only after the death of her brother Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. How could it happen that the elder sister of the leader of the Islamic State lived for a long time in the territory under the control of Turkey? Does this indicate that Turkey intends to launch a new counter-terrorism operation in the city of Aazaz to liquidate the supporters of Rasmia Awad? The United States destroyed Abu Bakr, Turkey captured his older sister. In this regard, Russia has remained in a very uncomfortable position, since it has not yet destroyed any of the members of the family of the leader of the Islamic State and it has not captured anyone. Can we expect that after Washington and Ankara, Moscow will also soon begin an operation to eliminate members of the Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi family, which will be loudly announced in the international press?
– The residence of Rasmia Awad in the city of Aazaz was known to the Turkish special services and the defense departments. This allowed Ankara to freely gather intelligence information about the ISIS leader’s family, his plans and movements, over an expensive period of time. For this reason, Rasmia Awad was not touched, since his residence in the territory under Turkish control created significant advantages for Ankara in collecting operational information necessary to neutralize the influence of the Islamic State. However, after the liquidation of Abu Bakr, Rasmia Awad lost its value as a source of information, since its information was no longer necessary. For this reason, she was arrested.
I would not say that the arrest of the elder sister of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was something loudly announced, since this fact does not deserve so much attention. It was a routine job for Turkish intelligence. I believe this may be due to Turkish culture, which weakly evaluates successes, praising restraint. On the other hand, the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was impressive, and official statements from both countries indicate that Turkey played a large role in the destruction of the leader of ISIS.
Russia is also interested in eliminating all the forces of the Islamic State. In this regard, Moscow is doing a great job. Meanwhile, while there is no information that members of the Abu Bakr family may be under Russian control, it is therefore difficult to predict how events will develop further. Perhaps the Kremlin will make an attempt to find family members of the leader of the terrorists, but, as I have already said, they as sources of information no longer represent any value.
3. Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soilu recently threatened to send all captured captives of the Islamic State back to Europe, where they came from. What causes such threats? If ISIS members travel to Europe, then in a number of European countries the risk of terrorist attacks will increase sharply, which in one way or another will affect the position of Turkey, which is also interested in making Europe safe.
– The statement by the Minister of the Interior, Suleiman Soilu, shows sincerity with regard to such a much-appreciated overall counter-terrorism effort. It’s like a litmus test. From the very beginning of the Syrian crises, some European countries have constantly refrained from responsibility not only for what is happening in Syria, but also for what they had to do to eliminate the terrorist threat. Meanwhile, Turkey expects each participant to share their burden, at least to a certain extent. It is logically not clear why these countries behave so unproductively. There is no way out of this irrational gross act. The culmination of false and ultimately distorted information about the absence of the threat of terrorism is that ISIS members travel peacefully to Europe and create terrorist attacks.
There are security services and judicial bodies that must take measures against their citizens in the ranks of ISIS, but no such measures are taken. Therefore, many European countries still refrain from liability and continue to unfairly blame Turkey.
4. In September 2019, Recep Erdogan publicly confirmed Turkey’s readiness to produce nuclear weapons. If this happens, this would indicate a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which Turkey has also signed. However, Turkish nuclear ambitions did not appear under Recep Erdogan. So, Ankara, according to some reports, has been harboring plans to create nuclear weapons since the 1960s. Is it really? Can Recep Erdogan really initiate the process of nuclear weapons production in Turkey?
– The remarks by Turkish President Recep Erdogan are aimed at criticizing double standards and accusing many leaders of countries of hypocrisy when they declare renunciation of nuclear weapons, but are actually in a state of arms race, including nuclear.
Turkey will not possess nuclear weapons overnight. But Ankara can start a nuclear program at any time if it feels that this is the only way to protect the state.