By Denis Korkodinov
During the recent tripartite summit on Syria, Moscow and Tehran expressed outrage at the actions of the terrorist organizations represented in Idlib. In this regard, Turkey will have to put pressure on the Syrian groups under its control, as a result of which it risks spoiling relations with them. In the end, under the onslaught of Russia and Iran, a stream of refugees could move towards the Turkish borders, which would pose a threat to Ankara’s national security.
Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani did not directly call on Turkey to exert pressure on the militants operating in Idlib, it was clear from the tone of the state leaders that in case the Turks ignore the international rules of the game again, there is a risk of various kinds of “unforeseen situations”.
In particular, Moscow and Tehran may give the Syrian government troops a green light to attack the positions of the militants and their allies, including Turkey. Apparently, this hint was understood by Recep Erdogan, who promised to intensify his work in relation to Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham and its affiliated groups in order to minimize the risks of their direct collision with SAA.
Russia and Iran jointly emphasized that Idlib should not be a base for terrorists. For this reason, the leaders of the countries agreed to implement at least two programs: the bombing of all the identified positions of Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham without taking into account the views of Turkey and prompting Ankara not to interfere in the process of joint Russian-Iranian actions.
Recep Erdogan is aware that the increased striking power of Moscow and Iran in Idlib will inevitably provoke a flood of refugees. In this regard, Ankara is trying in every way to prevent this. After all, over 3 million Syrian migrants are already in Turkey, and an increase in their numbers could lead to a complete collapse of the Turkish economy.
Therefore, Recep Erdogan said that Turkey is ready to block the migration flow. In other words, the Turks are ready to begin their own military operation to push out the Syrians from the borders of Turkey.
According to Turkish opinion, the “security zone” created in the north of Syria is just necessary for placing crowds of refugees on its territory.
For this reason, Ankara will intensify its dialogue with the United States so that this “security zone” is created as soon as possible. However, if Washington does not show particular interest in this, Turkey will act independently, increasing the risk of being dragged into the Syrian conflict in the absence of positive results.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: Anadolu Agency