“… this issue is a classic instance of the clash of two international law principles: territorial integrity and self-determination.” – said Stephan Astourian, UC Berkeley Armenian Studies Program Director, on Turkey-Russia stance in Southern Caucasus conflict.
One of the world’s oldest conflicts, the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that threatens to destabilize the South Caucasus region, in one of the world’s most protracted war, has escalated into violent clashes for the second time within the past four month, and three cease-fires have already crumpled by the end of September. Shaped by geopolitical constraints, in Nagorno-Karabakh more than 1.000 people has been killed in the recent clashes. Moreover, the South Caucasus region is becoming a new flashpoint for Turkey and Russia, due to the growing internationalization of the dispute, including the involvement of Turkey that might raise the possibility of a Russian increasing involvement in the conflict.
Three cease-fires have already collapsed since hostilities flared at the end of September. The battle, which broke out on September 27, was more destructive than July, with hundreds of soldiers and civilians killed on both sides. The dimension was even larger as it took place along numerous areas of the Contact Line, including Stepanakert, the largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ganja, the second largest city in Azerbaijan.
Landlocked between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the province of Nagorno-Karabakh was annexed to Azerbaijan during the Soviet Period. As the USSR crumbled, clashes erupted between the region’s Azerbaijani minority and the Armenian majority, which demanded independence or union with Armenia. This degenerated into a devastating war in which, with massacres and ethnic cleansing committed by both sides, more than 30,000 people lost their lives and around a million more were displaced. The war ended in 1994 with a truce and an effective stalemate; Yerevan and Baku remained locked in the dispute over the province and the seven neighboring districts. Unsurprisingly, many truce violations have occurred ever since. Border clashes erupted in 2016 and resumed on July 2020 when 16 people, including an esteemed Azerbaijani general, were killed. As a result, thousands of people responded with street protests in Baku, demanding that the Azerbaijani government take control of the province. Since hostilities resumed on September 27, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared martial law and full military mobilization.
This might seem to be a minor clash in a remote corner of the world, however, the dispute has a critical implications for regional security, energy industry and the ambitious targets of two problematic leaders: Vladimir Putin of Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. This could be particularly dangerous because Turkey and Russia are strongly backing different horses – Russia is the major supporter of Armenia, the tow countries are linked by a formal defense treaty and Russia maintains two military bases in Armenia. While Turkey serves as main backer, strategic partner and greatly supporter of the fellow Muslims in Azerbaijan. During the escalation of clashes, in September 2020, between Azerbaijan-Armenia, Turkey was one of the first countries to expressed its support for Azerbaijan at every level. The recent Azerbaijani attack on Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh could not have happened without the direct support of Turkey.
During the escalation of the crisis, in the past months, The Turkish foreign and defence ministers released strong messages against Armenia. These statements were followed by one of the largest joint military exercises in the region’s history where the Turkish army and air forces conducted joint drills with their Azerbaijani counterparts, in July and August, across several parts of Azerbaijan. Aside from the friendship of both countries, Tovuz, the border district of Azerbaijan, is located close to the energy pipelines that are essential source of energy for Turkey.
Furthermore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, seems determined to expand the influence of his country in the South Caucasus, a traditionally Russian zone of influence, through Azerbaijan. The recent clashes are backed by Turkish high-ranking officials, supervised by the Minister of Defence of Turkey. More than 600 Turkish military personnel of various kinds are in Azerbaijan, coordinating the war effort. Some reports even indicated that the Turkish government is involved in dispatching Syrian mercenaries to the conflict zone. Allegedly, Syrian fighters were offered a competitive compensation package to guard observation posts and energy facilities of Azerbaijan, but they were reportedly transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-September – in the weeks before the fighting – suggesting that this movement was planned by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moreover, the dispute’s timing can be explained by secondary factors, that Azerbaijan and Turkey utilized on their advantage: US presidential elections, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian Federation focused on Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.
The interminable conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh poses a particular challenge to Russia-Turkey relations. Russia has a strong relationship with Armenia, through a bilateral defence cooperation treaty and the Russia-sponsored Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Armenia is a member. Also, 3,000 Russian troops are based in the Armenian second-largest city, Gyumri, forming a trip wire against Turkish military action. However, this is the part where it gets tricky, Azerbaijan is the Russia’s largest trading partner in the Caucasus. Therefore, Russia has tried to avoid isolating Azerbaijan, while keeping its friendship with Armenia. Russia has been discreet about its arm sales to Armenia to avoid provoking Azerbaijan, denying reports of large weaponry transfers when reports resurfaced on 2010. More recently, Russia has started to sell armaments to both sides and has been more open about its balancing. Russia has also abstained from adopting an aggressive stance toward Azerbaijan but trying to keep calm Armenia.
European Union, United States, Russia, and United Nations Security Council have all called for a ceasefire in the region. However, Turkey has encouraged Azerbaijan to push forward – President Erdogan’s goals are comprehensible, placing Azerbaijan as a target to provoke Russia and to challenge its hegemony over the South Caucasus region. The shift in Turkey’s energy supply by enhancing domestic capabilities, increasing supplies from Azerbaijan, Qatar, and the US, while decreasing dependency on Russia, are vital steps for him to reach these goals.
Russia and Turkey had sometimes coordinated in the past to reduce tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the difficult cooperation between them is starting to fade as both countries become increasingly resolute in achieving their position and maintaining their strategic alliances. The possibility of Russia getting involved in this conflict cannot be ruled out. We cannot remove the fact that Russia has a defense treaty with Armenia, so any significant attack by Azerbaijani / Turkish forces could lead to Russian intervention. The confrontation between these two regional heavyweights relies heavily on the future escalation points that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will bring.
Russia remains a key power in the region and has enormous influence over Armenia, Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and to a lesser extent Azerbaijan and even Georgia, fueling Turkish fears of encirclement. However, Turkey is persistent in its action plan to dismantle, or at least diminish, Russia’s influence in the region, using Azerbaijan. In this specific conflict, Turkey’s goal could be to exert strong pressure on the Armenian side so that Russia intervenes against Azerbaijan.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has already caused severe headaches in Moscow, while it has raised Turkey’s status in the eyes of the anti-Russian bloc in the EU and the US. It remains to be seen how much Turkey is willing to push to challenge Russia’s hegemony as it is unclear whether Azerbaijan’s escalation, coupled with further Turkish involvement, could drag Russia into the conflict, causing it to lose the Azerbaijan’s trust, and be the reason for the collapse of the South Caucasus. Russia’s position will be a critical factor, playing now an assertive role of peacemaker, while considering implications that will not bear fruit in the near future.
Image Credit: Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan