By Eslam Abdelmagid Eid
For many years, the Horn of Africa has been plunged into endless crisis, now it is the turn of the country that was considered to be the most relatively calm in the region, namely Ethiopia.
After months of rising tensions between the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which is the governing authority of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, the crisis has precipitated when forces of TPLF assaulted ,on November 4, 2020, a major Ethiopian National Defense Force base in Tigray, killing non-Tigrayan soldiers and attempting to loot heavy artillery and weapons.
All of this means that Ethiopia is facing a serious challenge that can negatively affect its political stability and the ability of the federally-based constitutional order to continue to govern relations between various Ethiopian nationalities. The battles between the Ethiopian Federal Army and the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front can lead to defections in the Ethiopian army and also have repercussions in Eritrea and Sudan. The United Nations is calling for restraint so that a refugee crisis for nearly 9 million people does not break out in the region.
The Ethiopian Federation is subdivided into ethno-linguistically based Regional States, namely Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region (SNNPR), Gambella and Harari, and chartered cities: Addis Ababa City administration and Dire Dawa city council. It has a population of more than 100 millions of inhabitants and more than 88 ethnic groups. The biggest groups are the Amhara and Oromo. Together they comprise more than 65% of the population.
The Tigers are the third largest ethnic group and, despite their political dominance over the reins of power from 1991 until the election of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018, they represent only 6% of the population.
Abi Ahmed, who is the first president to rule the country from the Oromo ethnic group, although it is the largest in Ethiopia, has adopted a completely different policy than his predecessors, trying to get out of the ethnic quota circle. On December 1, 2019, he established the Prosperity Party as a successor to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Prosperity Party was formed through the merging of three of the four ethnically-based parties in the governing coalition, which has been in place since 1991: the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The new Prosperity Party included also allies of the EPRDF: The Afar National Democratic Party (ANDP), the Benishangul-Gumuz People’s Democratic Unity Front (BGPDUF), the Ethiopian Somali People’s Democratic Party (ESPDP), the Gambela People’s Democratic Movement (GPDM) and the Hareri National League (HNL). The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant party in the former EPRDF for 27 years, did not join the new party, and it was critical about its formation.
In this piece, we will analyze the extent of the current conflict in the Tigray region between the Ethiopian Federal Army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the impact of the open policies pursued by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with regard to ethnic quotas. We will analyse the following points:
1- Who are the parties to the conflict in Tigray?
2- What are the factors that led to the outbreak of the crisis?
3- Will the crisis mark the beginning of the end of the 1994 constitution, which is based on participation and ethnic quotas?
4- Is a political solution to the crisis still on the table or are we facing a prolonged military conflict?
5- The potential impact of the crisis on the countries bordering Ethiopia?
6 – What is the possibility that other Ethiopian ethnic groups will join the Tigray in their conflict against the central government in Addis Ababa?
DIRECT PARTIES INVOLVED IN THE CONFLICT
1- The Ethiopian Federal Army
The Ethiopian Federal Army, under the orders of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is currently launching an extensive campaign in the Tigray region in the north of the country. The Ethiopian army is the strongest army in the Horn of Africa region, and is ranked 47th out of 137 countries globally, and the total number of Ethiopian army personnel is 140,000 soldiers. The Ethiopian army has 82 warplanes, as well as 800 tanks and armored vehicles. The defense budget of the Ethiopian army is about 340 million dollars.
2- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front
It was the dominant partner in the former EPRDF governing coalition. He refused to join the Prosperity Party, founded by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and is led by “Depreciation Gebremikle”, who is also the governor of the state of Tigray and former deputy prime minister. His separatist rhetoric has increased since his removal from the federal government, in April 2018. In the early of November 2020, he confirmed the Tigray’s readiness for a war, as the balance of human military power was skewed flagrantly in favor of the Tigray Liberation Front. According to international estimates, it has between 200 and 250 thousand fighters, most of them are trained and have previous combat experience during the period of the Ethiopian-Eritrean war. Tigrayan Liberation Front units are armed with light and medium weapons, along with some Soviet T55 and T 62 tanks, field and anti-aircraft artillery and shoulder-mounted air defense launchers.
INDIRECT PARTIES
1- Eritrea
Although there are no effective forces on the ground, and no official statements have yet been made by the Eritrean side, doubts among Tigrayans are growing as to whether Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki could be involved in the war. Eritrea, which is located on the northern border of the region, has a prior historical enmity with the Tigray region, President Afewerki has always held the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray responsible for the border war that took place between Eritrea and Ethiopia between 1998-2000, in addition to Eritrea’s continuing requests to implement the ruling of the International Court of Justice, which provides for the return of the Badme region, which is located within the borders of the Tigray region to Eritrea. Abiy Ahmed has promised to fulfill this ruling since taking power in 2018, especially in light of the close relationship between him and Eritrean President Afwerki, which began with the signing of the Jeddah Peace Agreement between the two parties on the 16th. September 2018. During his last visit to Ethiopia, Afwerkie also accompanied Abi Ahmed on a visit to the dams that Ethiopia is building, which increased the concerns of the Popular Front in Tigray about Eritrea’s possible military involvement alongside the forces of the Ethiopian Federation.
2- Sudan
Contrary to Eritrea, Sudan has no hostility with any of the warring parties .Rather, Sudan fears the multiplication of waves of refugees and people fleeing the war in Ethiopia to the Sudanese state of Kassala, which is located on the borders of the Tigray region, which could greatly influence the image of the prime minister of the government. Transition, Abdullah Hamdok, in front of the Sudanese people. Hamdok immediately took the initiative to try to play a mediating role between the two sides, a role which was flatly rejected by the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed.
THE REASONS FOR THE OUTBREAK OF THE CRISISIS
1 – Abi Ahmed’s desire to break free from the context of the 1994 Ethiopian constitution
From the beginning, Abiy Ahmed’s policy has tended to change the policy of ethnic federalism stipulated in the constitution established by Meles Zenawi in 1994, who is considered one of the founding members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray, and to replace it by adopting the method of national integration of all ethnic groups in the country. Especially since this constitution was a guarantee for Tigray to control, until Abiy Ahmed’s seizure of power in May 2018, most of the reins of power in the country, despite its low representation in the total population, not exceeding six percent. .
Abi Ahmed’s first step in this context was to ignore the text of Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution, which states: that every nation, nationality and people in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.
This was evident with the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s establishment of what he called the Prosperity Party, following the dissolution of the ruling coalition, known as the “Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front”, which was made up of four ethnic political parties. . The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has refused to join the new party, mainly because this involves the removal of Tigray representatives from the state’s sovereign centers, which they controlled before Abiy Ahmed came to power.
2- Postponement of elections
One of the most important factors that led to the escalation of the crisis in Tigray is undoubtedly the postponement of national elections in the country, in March of this year. The National Elections Council in Ethiopia, which is an independent body, has postponed the national and regional elections that were supposed to be held in August 2020, to avoid the spread of the Corona virus. This decision led to the withdrawal of deputies from the Tigray region, including the President of the Senate, in protest. Relations became further strained in September 2020 when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front held elections in Tigray in an explicit challenge to the federal government in Addis Ababa, and said it won 98 percent of the total popular vote. It is worth noting that these elections were not overseen by international observers. Newly established regional lawmakers in Tigray immediately declared that the federal government lacked legitimacy, thus refusing to recognize it, considering the prime minister’s office to be illegal, given that his legal mandate had expired. The Ethiopian parliament quickly responded by announcing the dissolution of the local government of Macalle (Capital of Tigray), considering it violated the constitution and endangered the entire constitutional order of the country, while the Ethiopian government completely cut off the internet and communication services from the region.
3- The deliberate marginalization of the Tigray ethnic group by Abi Ahmed
Since taking office as premier, Abi Ahmed has carried out a campaign of ethnic discrimination, especially against the Tigrayans. Abi Ahmed was the first to reach power in Ethiopia from the Oromo ethnic group. In contrast, the Tigrayans had great representation in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, the coalition that has ruled the country for more than 20 years. Their strong political role explains the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s continuing campaigns to overthrow the leaders of Tigray from the leadership positions in the country. Abiy Ahmed, under the umbrella of fighting corruption in the Renaissance dam supplies, excluded many of the army generals who belonged to the Tiger ethnic group, this in conjunction with ministerial changes, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Chief of the General Staff, his deputy and the commander of the Federal Police, appointed in order to strengthen his grip on power. The straw that broke the camel’s back was his appointment of a new army commander in the Tigray region, the most important command of the Ethiopian army, which was rejected by the Tigray Liberation Front.
POSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS
1- The worsening of the refugee crisis
With the onset of the crisis in Tigray, the first trucks carrying Ethiopian refugees began to cross the Sudanese states of Gedaref and Kassala on the border between Sudan and the Ethiopian region of Tigray and, according to local media, will be housed in several new refugee camps that are set up to accommodate people fleeing the fighting in Tigray.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that more than 14,500 men, women and children have currently fled Ethiopia to neighboring Sudan since the outbreak of the conflict in the Tigray region, and UNHCR added that the fighting is approaching the camp, prompting fears of a mass shift. He explained that the flow of Ethiopian refugees was exceeding the capacity to help, as 4,000 people crossed in one day.
Sudanese authorities predict that around 200,000 Ethiopians will flee to Sudan in the coming days, with the ongoing conflict in the region.
This exceeds the capacity of Sudan, which is currently suffering from an economic crisis that has not recovered from its effects until now, despite the signs of hope that appeared with the announcement of the US intention to remove Sudan from the list of countries sponsor of terrorism, especially with the opening of the transitional government of Hamdok to proceed with the Arab trend of normalization with Israel.
2 – The impact on the peacekeeping missions in neighboring countries of Ethiopia
Both Somalia and South Sudan depend on the presence of Ethiopian blue helmets to help reduce bloodshed due to the ongoing ethnic and sectarian conflicts in these countries. With the outbreak of the crisis in Tigray, Ethiopia withdrew nearly 600 troops from the forces it had deployed in Somalia’s western border region.
A UN security report warned that “redeployments carried out from Addis Ababa near the border with Somalia will make that region more vulnerable to possible incursions by the Somali extremist youth movement,” given the ongoing conflict between the movement and the Somali government. since many years. Furthermore, given that presidential elections in Somalia are expected to take place in early 2021 – after multiple postponements – the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia can greatly hamper what has been achieved over years of international efforts to ensure security. and stability in Somalia. The country has been in trouble for a long time.
The conflict between Ethiopian federal army and Tigrinya forces is expected to lead to a wider redeployment of Ethiopian military. A withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces present in Somalia and South Sudan could also significantly affect the international reputation of Abiy Ahmed, whom he acquired as a peacemaker and mediator for crisis resolution in a region full of political and humanitarian unrest, where the Ethiopian presence in its regional neighborhood was seen as a source of stability in the African Horn region.
3- The emerging of new ethnic divisions
The current Tigray rebellion against the Ethiopian federal government may be a great incentive for other ethnicities within Ethiopia to raise against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime, especially in light of the growing tension between the government and the major ethnicities in the country, with at the top the Amhara ethnic group, the second largest component of the Ethiopian people.
Furthermore, with the continuing crisis in Tigray, large divisions are expected to occur within the Ethiopian Federal Army, as a large number of army commanders belong to the Tigray ethnic group, which will pose in general a great threat to the federal government. Also, this could make it difficult to resolve the crisis with a military solution, and force the warring parties to turn to the negotiating table with the patronage of the United Nations or regional or international mediation.
Author: Eslam Abdelmagid Eid (Academic, political researcher, and specialist in Middle East affairs)
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)