By Amr Mohammed Eldeeb
The current probability of a war between the US and Iran is very small. Any US military intervention against Iran and its interests will have dire consequences, not only for the countries of the Persian Gulf, but also in other regions of the world, with deep repercussions on the US-China-Russia relations.
There are several reasons that make US military intervention in Iran unlikely. First, the United States is still working to weaken Iran through economic and political sanctions. A military attack from the US could allow Iran to reinforce its political system and overcome the economic difficulties.
Secondly, when the United States took military control of both Afghanistan and Iraq, at the beginning of the current millennium, the Russia political weight was completely absent on the international arena. While Russia is now a powerful anti-American force in many hot spots of the world, as in the Arctic, Venezuela, Syria, the Baltic Sea, Ukraine and Libya.
Therefore, Russia can not allow the United States to put forward a military interventions against Iran, because this could mean the loss of a lot of strategic Russian interests both in the Middle East and in the Caspian Sea basin.
The third reason is that Iran is not Iraq or Libya. It is a country with a strong military potential. In the case of a US-Ira war the entire Gulf region will suffer serious repercussions that could also lead to a serious global energy crisis. In addition, the presence of French, British and Turkish military bases in the region, could increase the possibilities that the situation in the region could get out of control.
The world is not yet ready to support a war against Iran, because it it could have uncontrollable regional and global consequences. Therefore, the United States continues to follow its usual tactics – to undermine the Iran’s economic and social spheres, i.e. to develop a color revolution in Iran.
The current deployment of several US military units to the region represents only a demonstration of force from the United States and does not pose a threat to Iran.
In the event of a reckless US attack on Iran, Saudi Arabia will be involved in the war, militarily and financially. But Riyadh it is not ready to financially support the weight of a war with Iran. The military conflict in Yemen is still ongoing, and the major economic projects that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, have in mind, should be stopped in case of a war with Iran.
Israel is the only country that for a long time is preparing for a war near its borders and near the Iranian-Azerbaijani border. But Israel in case of a conflict will have to confront Iranian ballistic missiles and a possible direct war with Iran on the Lebanese and Syrian borders.
Egypt will will not to participate in any way in a US-Iran war, unless there will be a direct threat to its interests in the Red Sea region. Egypt has already refused many times to participate in any military alliance against Iran, the last of which is Arab NATO. If we look at the position of Turkey, we can see that a US military attacks on Iran is against the interest of the Turks. Iran and Turkey an are strategic allies with many common interests that could be seriously affected in the event of an American-Iranian war.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)