On August 25, 2019, Israeli military aircraft violated Lebanese airspace. In response to this, Lebanese President Michel Aoun publicly stated that Israel had actually declared war. The parties to the conflict were one step away from the start of active hostilities against each other. The Lebanese-Israeli war could begin at any moment.
Specifically for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Lebanese political journalism and international relations expert Fouad Khcheich, as well as Lebanese political analyst and transnational challenges specialist Ali Yehya.
1. How likely is it that Israel can launch hostilities in Lebanon against Hezbollah facilities?
FOUAD KHCHEICH: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to actively position himself in Lebanon. However, this positioning is not related to the clashes between Tel Aviv and the“ Axis of Resistance. ”Nevertheless, the Israelis sent two planes that aimed to kill the Hezbollah leader. “and send a fiery signal to Iran. In any case, the Israelis changed the rules of warfare with Lebanon, introduced in the July war of 2006. In short, the possibilities of confrontation are open, and there is no room for retreat for Yi Israel, because it is surrender and defeat for Netanyahu, not for Iran, because it is a continuation of the pulling around Tehran, not for Hezbollah after Nasrallah explained the dangers of Israeli targets.
ALI YEHYA: In recent years, Israeli parties have opposed the Palestinians and Lebanese as part of investment and propaganda tools before the election. Today Netanyahu is rebuilding the same scenario ahead of the Israeli elections, and for the fourth time in a week the area of defeat is expanding – Iraqi objects” Hashd al Shaabi. “So, the air strike fell on the headquarters of the brigade No. 45 in the city of Kaim near the Iraqi-Syrian border. In its statement, the group Abu Valaa al-Valai, which is part of the Khashd al-Shaabi, confirmed that 13 Iraqi militia camps were blown up in just one year. In addition, two simultaneous attacks on Hezbollah’s first headquarters in Aqrab, which targeted the organization’s headquarters, resulted in the deaths of two members of the Air Force’s group Hezbollah.
At the same time, Hezbollah was the main target, but a more sensitive target, related to attacks in Iraq and Syria, before this operation failed “by divine coincidence,” as sources close to Hezbollah describe. If an Israeli has two options, if he cannot strengthen the image of an Israeli deterrent that has recently been damaged, he will either accept a painful response from Lebanon, as promised by the Hezbollah Secretary General in response to the operation, and lose additional cards, or he will have a scenario of entering the phase of mutual attacks on the basis of blow after blow, which means in some way the possibility of turning it into a big war.
It is not possible to identify all the targets for which the IDF will be able to strike during the upcoming war, because the identification of these targets is part of a reconnaissance war, which also includes a misleading information war. However, these goals may absolutely coincide with the military plan prepared by the Chief of the General Staff of Israel Aviv Kokhavi, called the Kokhavi Plan, which differs from the plan of the former Chief of Staff of the Army Gadi Eisenkot, aimed at strengthening the weapons and the potential to deter enemy ground forces.
2. Should Israeli-led military incidents in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq be considered lightly or should they be taken seriously, given that the provocations presented may war?
FOUAD KHCHEICH: The Israelis understand that the threats of Hezbollah do not coincide with the threats of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in response to Israeli air strikes against his country. At this point, we can say that everything is” acceptable “in the sense that Tel Aviv is able to use its military drones to deliver local attacks, but is not yet ready for full-scale military operations against any states or forces of influence, since this would significantly change the Middle East landscape and lead to disruption of the general world order. ituatsiya deteriorating rapidly. Therefore, the current situation in the region should not be taken lightly.
3. Will the incident presented cause tensions between Lebanon and Israel?
FOUAD KHCHEICH: It’s quite natural that Hezbollah’s general secretary, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, said that what happened in the“ environs of Madi in the southern suburbs of Beirut is “very, very serious.” In fact, there was a great risk of an official declaration of war between Hezbollah “and Israel on the Lebanese front. In this regard, in the near future we can see certain actions of the parties aimed at significantly exacerbating the conflict.
ALI YEHYA: Of course, the very fact that the Israelis committed the first aggression, for the first time since August 14, 2006, automatically increased tension. And his attempt to upset the balance of deterrence and violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 prompted Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to condemn the attack in front of the ambassadors and representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, announcing a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty, while Lebanese President Michel Aoun publicly stated that Israel had actually declared war on Beirut. oina real, will get soon.
4. What kind of reaction to the Israeli provocation may come from Hezbollah?
FOUAD KHCHEICH: Initially, Hezbollah’s general secretary did not prepare to open a comprehensive front against Israel. However, a series of Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, Hassan Nasrallah, was ready to respond. Meanwhile, he did not specify either a specific time or probable scale in his appeals defeat, no place for an answer. He only called on the local groupings of forces affiliated to Hezbollah to be ready to take action any minute. What we have to do now is to be awaiting the outcome of a new stage of the confrontation during coming days.
ALI YEHYA: The Hezbollah movement has clearly stated its intention to target drones launched by Israel in Lebanese airspace, and this will be mainly through air defense systems. Defense systems will be revealed during any future war, which implies that we “Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has confirmed that his organization will respond to any provocations by Israel without waiting for permission from anyone.
Image Credit: AP/Bilal Hussein
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