By Denis Korkodinov
On August 19, 2019, as a result of a large-scale offensive operation, the Syrian government army occupied the city of Khan Sheikhun, controlled by militants of the Jaish al-Izza and al-Jabha al-Wataniya lil Tahrir, militias affiliated to Tahrir al-Sham.
The exact number of victims among jihadists has not yet been determined. However, according to official Damascus, the approximate losses of Jaish al-Izz and related groups are 1,500 killed and 250 units of military equipment, including 37 tanks. Air support for the Syrian offensive was provided by the Russian Air Force. The support provided to the militants by Turkey poses a threat of aggravation of relations with Moscow.
The actions of Damascus and Moscow towards Khan Sheikhun were a reaction to Ankara’s attempts, together with Washington, to create a “safe zone” in northwestern Syria. The blocking of the M-5 highway connecting Aleppo with Hama and Latakia forces Turkey to make significant changes to its military plans and postpone the start date of Operation Claw-2 with the participation of American troops. According to informed sources, the Turks intended to use Khan Sheikhun for the transfer of army units and heavy military equipment to the northwestern regions. Therefore, the Syrian attack was aimed at preventing a future Turkish offensive.
The victory in Khan Sheikhun is essential for the entire military operation in Idlib province, where Russia and Turkey previously agreed to ensure a de-escalation regime.
According to sources in Syria, Bashar al-Assad is tired of the constant unrealistic guarantees of the Turks regarding the creation of the so-called “safe zones”. The last straw that overflowed the pan of Syrian patience was the agreement between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his American counterpart Donald Trump about a “peace corridor” that goes 30 km deep into Syrian territory.
Among other things, Moscow also expressed concern that Recep Erdogan began to negotiate with the United States on control in the north-west of Syria. For this reason, the Russian side decided to launch a large-scale offensive by the Syrian army in order to liberate the entire province of Idlib, even if this created the risk of a direct military clash with the Turks.
Thus, Turkey suffered serious reputational damage. Ankara mistakenly believed that the Russians provided her with a green light for unhindered military operations in northern Syria. In addition, the Turks proceeded from the opinion that, under the guise of cooperation with Moscow, they could supply arms to terrorist groups operating in the region.
However, Russia’s decision to take part in the Khan Sheikhun military operation on the side of official Damascus, without looking at Ankara, indicates that the Syrian regime has gained significant advantages, while Turkey, if it does not withdraw its troops from the encirclement, will be forced into the next 1- 2 days to agree with Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad on the passage through the positions of the Syrian government army.
The hostilities, jointly organized by Moscow and Damascus, demonstrated that Ankara had become an outcast in Idlib, even if the Turkish F-16s, which tried to fly over Khan Sheikhun, were driven off by Russian Su-35s covering the attacks of CAA aircraft.
Thus, the liberation of Khan Sheikhun has become especially symbolic in that it completely changes the configuration of forces in the international arena. So, Moscow actually canceled previous agreements with Turkey regarding the creation of a de-escalation zone in Idlib and openly supported the Syrian government forces.
However, the most important thing is that the level of confidence in Turkey in Moscow turned out to be at a negligible level, as a result of which there is a great risk of tension between the countries. In other words, the Russian-Turkish partnership runs the risk of resuming the “airplane crisis” of 2015. Despite the fact that this operation in Khan Sheikhun is not the only one where Russia and Syria acted together, its special symbolism is to test Recep Erdogan’s readiness to ruin relations with Moscow.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)