By Denis Korkodinov
The short-term truce in Yemen is in fact violated because of the impossibility of the opposing sides to reach a compromise regarding the further political development of Sana’a. The escalation of the conflict will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the country, with the result that hunger can threaten up to 15 million local residents.
The origin of the military conflict in Yemen go back to September 1962,when a revolution replaced a 1,000 year old hereditary Shiite monarchy. In response to the revolution, the followers of the overthrown regime united in order to fight the elected president of the country, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who clearly pursued a pro-American political course.
The Hussite movement was finally formed by June 2004, when Hussein Badreddin al-Huty, who led the rebels, organized an armed uprising against the president of the country. It should be noted that initially the conflict developed exclusively in the political plane. Religious contradictions between the various factions of forces became aggravated only after the assassination of al-Huthi in September 2004.
After 30 years of almost absolute rule, in November 2011, Ali Abdullah Saleh handed over the management of Yemen to the vice-president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, with the aim to soften popular unrest. However, the move did not have success: the Hussites, having felt the taste of the struggle for power, saw a certain pretense in the political reform that they did not want to put up with under any circumstances.
The culmination of the conflict took place in September 2014, when the Hussites, supported by Iran, seized power in the capital of Yemen following a coup d’état. President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi was forced to emigrate to Saudi Arabia. In March 2015, Riyadh officially decided to support the legitimate authority in Sana’a, launching a military campaign against the Houthis. Thus, the Saudis actually came into confrontation with the Ayatollah regime in Tehran, which stands on the side of the Shiite minority in Yemen.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran, probably mistakenly estimated their capabilities in the conduct of hostilities, as a result of which neither side can still win. In addition, they are not able to get out of the Yemeni conflict, because a way out of the conflict will indicate an absolute defeat, to which neither Riyadh nor Tehran agree. For this reason alone, the war in Yemen continues to this day and is unlikely to be completed in the next 10-15 years.
It is noteworthy that the Yemeni conflict received additional impetus after the murder of Saudi journalist Jemal Khashoggi in October 2018. This fact caused outrage among the international community, and above all, in the United States, which attempted to exert pressure on the Saudis in order to conclude an armistice. In addition, Donald Trump decided to stop refueling Saudi aviation, flying over Yemen.
Under pressure from Washington, the parties in the conflict in December 2018 l signed an armistice, called the Stockholm Accord. According to its terms, the Hussites were obliged to withdraw their troops from the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, while Riyadh, in turn, guaranteed the stop of the attacks to the city.
In May 2019, the Hussites actually left the port of Hodeidah in accordance with the international redeployment plan, and control of the city was transferred to the coast guard under the supervision of a UN group. However, the excessive military activity of Saudi Arabia was a cause for concern for the Huthis, who felt deceived. Now each of the parties to the conflict claims a violation of the agreement. So, Sana’s leadership believes that the Hussites use a strategic port to smuggle weapons from Iran. At the same time, the Hussites believe that Riyadh, having occupied a strategic port on the Red Sea coast, is preparing another springboard for military intervention.
At present, the Saudis are most likely to fear that Iran intends to strengthen its military presence in Yemen in order to subsequently seize oil fields belonging to Riyadh, as well as the centers of the Muslim world located in Mecca and Medina. Perhaps this statement is absurd at first glance, but in the Kingdom of the Two Shrines they think completely differently. Fear of losing control over the places associated with the Prophet Muhammad is the core of Saudi Arabia’s policies.
Tehran through its militaristic rhetoric only fuels this kind of fear of the Saudis. In particular, in September 2014, after Iran’s seizure of the capital of Yemen, Iranian parliamentarian Ali Reza Zakani stated that Sana now became the fourth Arab capital after Beirut, Baghdad and Damascus, which was under the control of the Ayatollah regime. Among other things, Ali Reza Zakani noted that after Yemen, Iran is ready to extend its authority to the whole territory of Saudi Arabia, including Mecca and Medina. This gives the conflict a special religious overtones, which is now the main problem for all the warring parties.
Thus, as long as the conflict in Yemen has the religion as its integral component, one can hardly expect that the parties could come to some kind of compromise. In fact, this conflict is based on the deep rods of all Muslims, for whom the struggle for religious values is much more important than politics.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: Flickr/DeltonDavis