By Denis Korkodinov
A distinctive feature of Yemen over the past five years is instability and questionable ideas about the future of the state. As a result of the “Arab Spring”, serious problems appeared on the surface that the former political leaders could not solve.
One of the main problems of Sana’a is the inability of local groups of forces to reach an agreement without the mediation of international partners.
The first attempt to organize the negotiation process between the Hussites and the Hadists at the highest level was made in April 2016 at the initiative of the UN Special Representative for Yemen Ismail Ould Sheikh Ahmed. The meeting between the leaders of the Ansar Allah movement and the “government in exile” under the auspices of Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi was held in Kuwait.
The negotiations were unsuccessful, because the parties could not reach a compromise. The differences in the views of the parties relate to the future development of Yemen: representatives of the Supreme Political Council (Hussis), proceed primarily from the real situation, justifying their position with the humanitarian crisis caused by the war.
In turn, supporters of Hadi see as their first priority the restoration of their authority in Yemen and the elimination of the political institutions of the Hussites in the country. Such ultimatum is unacceptable for the leadership of the Supreme Political Council, which continues to hold power in Sana’a.
Hussites insist on the work of the transitional government – the Presidential Council, in which all the groupings of forces in Yemen would be represented. However, the recognition of this condition by Mansur Hadi, who lost political influence in Yemen, would indicate the actual abolition of the so-called “government in exile”, which still enjoys the support of the Arab coalition under the auspices of Riyadh. This means that Mansur Hadi could turn into a political outsider, depriving him of support not only in Yemen, but also in the international arena.
At present, the situation seems to be in favor of the Houthites. The fact is that the military intervention undertaken by the Saudis clearly demonstrated the limited political possibilities of Riyadh. For the Saudis, there is no problem in the South Yemen, which is under the control of the Southern Transitional Council, which is opposed to the Hussites. So it seems that the main goal of Saudi Arabia is solely to weaken the influence of the Hussites in the region.
Meanwhile, Ansar Allah organized a series of attacks in remote areas of the kingdom, which was unable to prevent a threat. In turn, this indicates a restriction of the actions of the Saudis in relation to objects located in the territory of North Yemen.
Saudi rocket attacks on targets of the Hussites are becoming increasingly costly. With the budget deficit, the Saudis have to spend more than $ 5 billion on the military campaign in Yemen every year, which is a significant burden for the economy of Riyadh.
Meanwhile, the time in Sana’a plays against Mansur Hadi, because the more he is in emigration, the more people in Yemen begin to doubt the need for his return. In addition, the legitimacy of the presidential powers of the “exiled president” in the Yemeni electoral environment has been in doubt since 2014.
It is worth noting that Mansour Hadi was elected President of Yemen in 2012 for a period of 2 years, in connection with which his powers ceased in 2014. However, he extended his powers, with the support of the House of Representatives. For this reason, in Yemen, the majority of the population could not consider him as the lawfully elected head of state.
In order to try to gain an advantage over Mansur Hadi, after the failed Kuwaiti round of negotiations in 2016, the Hussis convened an extraordinary session of the House of Representatives, which had not met in full force since 2015. This allowed the Hussites not only actually, but also formally, to deprive Mansur Hadi of the status of president and to obtain all the levers of control in the country on completely legal grounds.
Nevertheless, such an attempt met with strong protest from Saudi Arabia, which questioned the legality of the work of the emergency session. The fact is that, in accordance with Article 73 of the Constitution of Yemen, the mechanism for convening an emergency session of the House of Representatives is strictly regulated.
So, it can be created exclusively either by a special decree of the head of state, or upon a written request of at least 1/3 of the total number of deputies, or by a decision of the presidium of parliament. The first two tools could not be used for objective reasons. Because of this, the Hussites decided to implement the third mechanism.
The Presidium of the Yemeni Parliament as of August 2016 consisted of 4 people: the Chairman of the Parliament and his deputies. In accordance with the adopted procedure, the decision of the presidium is made by a simple majority of votes, but if the votes are equally divided, the final word rests with the chairman of parliament. So the decision to convene an emergency session was taken with 1 vote against.
The main difficulty was the problem of achieving a quorum in accordance with Article 71 of the Yemeni Constitution, which states that a meeting of parliament can be recognized as legitimate if there is more than half of the total number of deputies (151 deputies). However, only 142 parliamentarians were present at the meeting, which gave grounds for the Hadists to declare an emergency session as illegitimate.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Article 71 of the Constitution of Yemen has a substantial clarification, allowing to consider the arguments of supporters of Mansur Hadi frivolous. Thus, a quorum can be determined from the total number of parliamentarians, except for those who for one reason or another have left the parliament.
At the time of the emergency session, 26 deputies died, and therefore the quorum was reduced. Because of this, the emergency session of the Yemen House of Representatives could be considered legitimate, since the necessary quorum was reached. The House of Representatives decided to convene the Presidential Council, which could allow the Hussits to reasonably govern the country and represent it in the international arena.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
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