The middle east has always been a region that has been initiating various wars and crisis. From the crusaders to the persistent Israeli – Palestinian conflict, it seems that there is no end to the confrontations. The situation in the middle east is also complicated by the various regional and global powers and their geopolitical interests.
Each of these sides has their own ambitions in this fragile region. One notable power that is constantly increasing its influence in the middle east is the Russian Federation. On that note, it is important to emphasize that there are a few different elements through which this emerging power is spreading its influence in this war-torn region.
1. Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
The first notable Russian involvement in the middle east was the Military intervention in the Syrian conflict. The official narrative was that the armed forces main goal were to help the Syrian Army to fight against the various jihadists and terrorist groups. And while this was one of the main goals of the operation, there were other reasons that were in the background. According to various Russian officials, the Russian side was helping the Syrian government to retake territory from various anti-government moderate rebel groups. Moreover, the broader geopolitical objective was to roll back the U.S. influence in the region.
Three years after the start of this operation, the results are there to be seen. The air campaign combined with the military advising mission galvanized the condition of Syrian armed forces and turned the tide of the war.
As the conflict is heading towards the final phase, we can conclude that the Russian Federation has managed to flex its military muscles. Furthermore, the presence of the Russian naval base in Tartus and the air base in Latakia will enable Russia to asserts its geopolitical interests in the region.
2. Russia’s Political Role in the Region
While the armed campaign was successful from a military point of view, there was also a broad spectrum of political and diplomatic benefits. The first and foremost is closely related with the so-called Russian centre for Reconciliation. To be more specific, the Russian side managed to bring many militant groups to the negotiating table. The reconciliation process enabled the Russian side to emerge as one of the main powers in the Syrian conflict. Moreover, it enabled a prerequisite for a possible peaceful solution.
The second notable aspect that can be seen as a result of the Russian influence is the so-called Astana Agreement. While the UN-backed Geneva process did not produce any notable results, it seems that the Astana accords did give a concrete platform for at least a temporary break. The Russian diplomacy backed by the success of the air campaign in Syria managed to get regional players such as Turkey and Iran into the negotiations. The end result was several deescalation zones that enabled the Syrian and Russian Army to focus its efforts on ISIL and Al Nusra. In the same time, it gave time for training and reorganization of the Syrian military.
Nevertheless, the biggest gain of this political process was the fact that Russia managed to bypass the U.S while solving the conflict. The Russian diplomacy was able to exclude the U.S and to improve its ties with Turkey – a major player in the region.
The third notable element that confirms that increased Russian influence in the region is the mediation in the Israeli-Syrian-Iranian conflict. After the successful southern front offensive of the Syrian Army, the Russian side managed to agree with the Israeli political leadership to deploy its MP at the demarcation Golan Heights. This was an inevitable sign that the Russian influence is growing in the region.
3. Russian Arms Exports
Despite having relied on the US to combat ISIL, the Iraqi federal government has been increasing the purchases of Russian military equipment and is considering further arms contracts. Earlier this year, Baghdad bought 73 Russian advanced T-90 battle tanks. Now, it seems that the Federal government has set its sights on obtaining the notorious S-400 air defence system. The Russian military intervention in Syria represented the perfect opportunity for the Russian Arms industry to show the potential of their new weapons.
Ankara is also along this path with Baghdad. In December, Turkey signed a $2.5 billion deal for the purchase of the S-400. Moreover, it seems that Egypt and Sudan are also on the list of potential customers for the S-400.
Nevertheless, these activities attracted the attention of the U.S administration. The US has a direct presence in Iraq and has invested billions of dollars in training and arming the Iraqi military. Turkey is one of the main NATO members and a crucial ally in the region stationing the second biggest NATO base in Incirlik. Egypt is one of America’s closest Arab allies and receives close to $1 billion a year in US aid. The U.S arms sale domination in the region is under threat by the recent Russian sales to the key American allies.
All of these elements just portray the geopolitical confrontation of the two superpowers through this fragile region. The general conclusion is that the Russian influence in the middle east is on the rise. The military campaign in Syria was the first step in the emergence of Russia as one of the main players in this part of the world. However, while asserting its own geopolitical interests, the Russian Federation will inevitably confront the American interests in the region. President Trump and Vladimir Putin seem to aspire towards improving the relations. Yet, the reality is that these two major powers will need to face each other in the quest for domination of this fragile region.