By Denis Korkodinov
Relations between Ankara and Moscow risk turning into another “plane crisis”. Turkish President Recep Erdogan has officially threatened to shoot down all the planes in the sky over the Idlib province in Syria, if they pose a danger to the Turkish forces. This statement by the Turkish leader was directly addressed to Moscow, whose military aircraft operate in the north-west of the Syrian Arab Republic.
The attack by the Syrian government forces at the Taftanaz military base, where, according to preliminary data, 5 Turkish troops were killed, was used by Recep Erdogan as an excuse to strengthen Turkey’s military presence in Idlib. However, the bombing of the military base, most likely, was a theatrical performance, since representatives of the military command of official Damascus deny the existence of an order to attack the Turks. In any case, many experts are inclined to believe that the provocation was organized by pro-Turkish armed groups in order to give Recep Erdogan the opportunity to justify his aggression against Damascus and Moscow.
It is worth noting that almost immediately after the attack on the Taftanaz military base, the Justice and Development Party spokesman Omer Chelik confirmed Ankara’s appeal to the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance with a request to provide military support in Idlib. And, given the reaction of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the White House administration, which condemned the actions of the Syrian Arab Army and Russia, respectively, Turkey will receive support from the alliance in the near future. At least, Recep Erdogan has announced a large-scale military operation in Idlib, which is due to take place in the second half of February 2020.
Anticipating the provision of military assistance by NATO, Jens Stoltenberg publicly expressed his solidarity with Turkey, which indicates that there are clear agreements on the interest of the alliance countries to take an active part in the Idlib operation.
Meanwhile, Ankara needs not so much the direct participation of NATO troops in Syria, but so that the alliance puts pressure on Moscow and creates obstacles to the actions of its military aircraft. Otherwise, Turkey is ready to take responsibility for another “plane crisis”.
The only problem is whether the NATO leadership will continue to support Turkey in case the new phase of the “airplane crisis” between Ankara and Moscow becomes a reality? So far, even Recep Erdogan does not have a clear belief that his partners in the alliance will not abandon their promises to help him in the event of an aggravation of relations with Russia. For this reason, he is careful to hold negotiations with the Russian side after almost every critical statement in order to clarify his position.
Until recently, the Turkish president’s statements regarding Russia were restrained. However, the situation in Idlib has demonstrated his true attitude, which cannot be called partnership. Moscow’s accusations of bombing terrorists in Syria, as well as escalating tensions in Idlib, are now unlikely to be perceived by the Russian leadership as an “good gesture” of Ankara.
Recep Erdogan, of course, is extremely annoyed that the Kremlin does not allow him to launch an offensive operation in Idlib province, contrary to earlier reached Russian-Turkish agreements. Thus, the Turkish president confirmed that he is actually leaving the Astana and Sochi format, which have lost their legal force and require the organization of a new negotiation process, taking into account the changed positions of the parties.
However, the irritation of the Turkish leader is also due to the fact that he was unable to prevent the successful offensive of the Syrian Arab Army, which distracts Ankara from solving his own internal problems and from the Libyan file. Now Turkey is forced to actually conduct military operations simultaneously on two fronts, in Libya and in the north-west of Syria, which was clearly not part of Recep Erdogan’s plans.
In any case, the Turkish leader hoped to solve military problems in a consistent manner: only after completing the active phase of the military campaign in Syria, did he begin to support the Government of the National Accord Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli. However, unexpected, according to Ankara, the intervention of Moscow forced the Turks to deconsolidate their military resources. Due to this, there is a risk that Turkey, conducting military operations on two fronts at once, will not be able to achieve positive results for it on any of the fronts.
This state of affairs fully explains the high passions that the Turkish administration is now experiencing, as well as why Recep Erdogan sent military reinforcements to Idlib. He just wants to quickly solve this problem in order to launch an active military offensive against the forces of the Libyan National Army.
Since the start of the conflict in Syria between the Turks and the government forces of Bashar al-Assad, there have been no direct clashes. In this regard, the current confrontation in Idlib opens a new page in the history of the Syrian war. Among other things, Turkish attacks on the positions of the Syrian Arab Army constitute a blow to Russian interests. Starting in September 2015, the Kremlin has sought to position the network as an ally and friend of Bashar al-Assad.
For this reason, a blow to government troops from Russia’s business partner, which is Turkey, may be perplexing in Damascus. In the end, against the backdrop of Turkish aggression, the Syrian president may put a utimatum before Moscow: either it continues to support the Turks, or maintains allied relations with Damascus. Therefore, Russian criticism in response to the military activity of Turkey was a necessary condition for the continuation of the military campaign of Moscow in Syria.
Under such conditions, the Russian-Turkish agreements on Idlib lost their relevance, since Ankara considered itself free from any obligations. In this regard, another “airplane crisis” is likely to be almost 99 percent out of 100. In addition, threats of physical violence addressed to the Russian ambassador to Turkey, Alexei Erkhov, indicate that Ankara is really determined to avenge the Kremlin for the humiliation suffered in Idlib.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)