By Irakli Javakhishvili
The global order has seen significant changes in recent years. The relative decline of the United States dominance and the emergence of a more multipolar world have paved the way for an increasing role of middle powers in global governance.
These countries, while not superpowers, are leveraging their unique diplomatic and geopolitical strengths to address conflicts and crises that major powers seem unable or unwilling to resolve. The rising number of global conflicts, from the war in Ukraine to the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, suggests that major powers struggle to maintain stability on their own. This has created a vacuum that middle powers are well-positioned to fill.
One of the clearest indicators of the shift toward a more multipolar world is the increasing engagement of middle powers in mediating international disputes.
Türkiye, for example, has played a key role in brokering grain export deals between Russia and Ukraine last year despite ongoing hostilities. By positioning itself as a neutral intermediary that maintains diplomatic relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, Türkiye managed to facilitate important humanitarian efforts.
Similarly, Qatar has used its relationships with Western powers and groups like Hamas to mediate ceasefires and deliver humanitarian aid during current times of crisis in the Middle East. Qatar also played a role in facilitating negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, which led to the eventual U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
In 2019, Norway facilitated negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition forces in an attempt to resolve the political and humanitarian crisis in the country.
These examples illustrate the growing capacity of middle powers to act as intermediaries in conflicts where major powers may be too entangled in rivalries or too polarized to offer effective or neutral mediation.
The Need for a Middle Power in Eurasia
This need for middle-power diplomacy is particularly evident in Eurasia, a region where the interests of several major powers intersect. The involvement of China and Russia in regional dynamics, for example, can often be driven by their geopolitical ambitions, leading to tensions with neighboring countries and beyond. This is where the role of a regional middle power becomes essential. Kazakhstan, though a young middle power, can exert positive influence in the region.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has consistently pursued a peaceful and pragmatic foreign policy, particularly in the realm of nuclear non-proliferation. As the first nation to voluntarily renounce the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, Kazakhstan has positioned itself as a global leader in advocating for disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Moreover, by building beneficial relations with neighbors like Russia and China, as well as with global powers such as the United States and the European Union, Kazakhstan has established itself as a reliable partner to all sides. This foreign policy approach has allowed Kazakhstan to act as a balancing force and a mediator in a region often characterized by competing interests.
This point was made by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Astana Think Tank Forum on October 17, where he stated, “When larger powers are locked in rivalries or unable to reach consensus, it is often middle powers that step in to maintain dialogue, mediate disputes, and sustain the frameworks that uphold global cooperation.”
Due to its neutral stance, Kazakhstan has on numerous occasions contributed to decreasing tensions in several global disputes. For example, by bringing together the Syrian government, opposition groups, and the three guarantor states (Russia, Türkiye, and Iran), the Astana Process on Syria, launched in 2017 and hosted in Kazakhstan’s capital, has reduced hostilities in the Syrian conflict. The most recent Astana Process meeting took place in January, which focused on counter-terrorism, humanitarian aid, and the mutual release of detainees.
More recently, in May 2024, Kazakhstan offered a platform for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The talks aimed to ease tensions and promote peace between the two nations, which have been embroiled in a long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Earlier this month, Azerbaijan accepted Kazakhstan’s proposal to hold further talks between Baku and Yerevan on a peace treaty in Astana.
Beyond conflict mediation, Kazakhstan has also contributed to international efforts through multilateral engagement. In 2024, Kazakhstan chaired several regional and international organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Organisation of Turkic States.
As President Tokayev stressed at the Astana Think Tank Forum, “It is essential that middle powers leverage their unique position to foster dialogue and cooperation, enable the mediation of disputes, and also put their weight behind the pursuit of stability.”
Kazakhstan’s Role as a Trade and Transit Hub
Kazakhstan’s strategic geographic position also allows it to play a role in facilitating trade between Asia and Europe. As a landlocked nation at the crossroads of East and West, Kazakhstan has developed its infrastructure and transit corridors to become a key part of the global supply chain. Currently, over 80% of overland transit traffic from China to Europe passes through Kazakhstan. Goods are increasingly heading westward from China along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. The volume of cargo transported along the route doubled in 2023, reaching 2.8 million tonnes, representing nearly a 90% increase compared to 2022. In the first nine months of 2024, cargo transportation along the TITR increased by 70%, reaching 3.4 million tonnes, with the yearly total projected to hit 4.2 million tonnes.
In an increasingly fragmented global economy, Kazakhstan can help bridge divides by fostering trade and transit routes that connect nations.
Rising Demand for Middle Powers
As global competition between superpowers intensifies, fostering dialogue and cooperation becomes increasingly important. This sentiment was echoed at the Astana Think Tank Forum. The event highlighted the growing recognition of middle powers in shaping global stability and their ability to mediate and foster dialogue in a turbulent global landscape. Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Akan Rakhmetullin, underscored the country’s commitment to a multi-vector foreign policy. He noted that forums like this provide a platform where analysts and diplomats can candidly collaborate to solve complex international issues, which is essential for maintaining global peace and stability.
While it is true that middle powers often lack the military and economic resources to enforce peace or carry out large-scale humanitarian interventions, the current state of global affairs highlights the need for impartial actors who can facilitate dialogue.
Countries like Indonesia and Singapore can play an important role in promoting Asian regional security through ASEAN, while the involvement of Saudi Arabia and Qatar will be key to stability in the Middle East. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is tasked with fostering cooperation in the Eurasian region, including between China and Europe.
Ultimately, the future of global diplomacy will not hinge solely on the actions of superpowers, but also on the strategic and constructive engagement of middle powers. As the global order shifts towards multipolarity, the need for balanced leadership will grow, and middle powers are uniquely equipped to provide it.
Author: Dr. Irakli Javakhishvili – Associate Professor of International Relations at Webster University Georgia.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).