World Geostrategic Insights interview with Tatiana Pokrovskaia on the significance of the Middle East in Russian foreign policy, what drives Middle Eastern countries to strengthen relations with Moscow, Russia’s role as a global player, and the prospects for Russian investments and trade in the Middle East.
Tatiana Pokrovskaia is an international business development professional with more than 20 years of experience in the markets of Africa, CIS, Asia and the Middle East, repeatedly bringing Russian companies into international markets. She is based in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Q1 – The Middle East is assuming an increasing role in Russian politics and economics. Moscow seems to have political (which includes preventing the formation of anti-Russian coalitions), security (minimizing terrorist threats) and economic goals in the region. Tensions with the West and Russia, has prompted Russia to focus more on diplomatic efforts, strengthening economic cooperation and developing military-industrial cooperation with the region. Russian military presence on the ground in the region has decreased, but military cooperation and diplomatic and economic relations have increased. In general terms, how do you assess the development of relations between Russia and the Middle East? How important is the Middle East in the chessboard of Russia’s foreign policy?
A1 – Today there is a trend towards strengthening the role of the Middle East in the global economy, which is primarily due to the favorable geographical position of the region, which is a connecting link between three continents (Asia, Africa, Europe).
Nowadays, Russia maintains diplomatic relations with all MENA countries, strengthening its political and economic presence in the region. Russia has been a friend of the Islamic world for many centuries, sharing traditional values. As a multinational and multi-religious state, Russia has always stood out for its harmonious relationships between representatives of different cultures and religions, which is enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Therefore, relations are built not only at the political and economic level, but also at the spiritual level.
Middle Eastern countries, primarily the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, give priority attention to the issue of stimulating the attraction of foreign investment in their economies. The liberal nature of the legislative mechanisms for regulating business of the Emirates activities has made it possible to invest Russian capital, this is the localization of industrial and technology companies, etc.
The transport and logistics potential of the Middle East for the Russian Federation is obvious. One of the most promising areas for realizing the transport and logistics potential of the Middle East region is the North-South international transport corridor leading through Iran. The project includes the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway through Iranian territory (the agreement was signed between the countries on June 17, 2023), as well as maritime infrastructure. Sea routes from Jebel Ali (UAE) and Doha (Qatar) to Novorossiysk are already operating. But there is still a lot to be done in terms of infrastructure.
Thus, the Middle East today represents a window of opportunity for the Russian Federation in terms of expanding trade and economic relations,especially during the period of mutual sanctions with the West. Therefore, Russia is interested in the peaceful existence of Middle Eastern countries and mutually beneficial cooperation, where the main investment and financial flows are concentrated.
Q2 – Why are Middle Eastern countries interested in not only maintaining, but also strengthening, close ties with Moscow, despite Western pressure?
A2 – The modern world and the system of international relations have entered a new phase of transformation. The Middle East region reflects changes throughout the world/
First of all, it should be noted that in recent years, Middle Eastern countries have increasingly shown pragmatism and neutrality in their foreign policy, diversifying their diplomatic efforts, which is certainly a benefit for them. Thus, the key states of the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt and others – have good working relations with both Moscow and Western countries. So far, none of them is going to choose a side in favor of pressure from Western countries calling for them to join the sanctions and seriously limit relations with Russia. Moreover, Middle Eastern countries are trying to play a mediating role in the current situation.
The next reason is that most countries in the region distrust the West. They consider the conflict in Ukraine as the existence of double standards used by Western countries in relation to the problem of migrants, other armed conflicts (as in Israel) or arms supplies. It should also be noted that the authority of the United States and Western countries is declining in the region.
The countries of the Middle East prefer a multipolar/polycentric world to a unipolar world, in which there are more opportunities to hedge risks and receive significant benefits from maintaining a balance: the United States – weapons and security guarantees, China – investments, and Russia – cooperation in the field of energy and security. Multi-vectorism is becoming one of the fundamental principles of their policy. In this way, the states of the region provide themselves with more comfortable conditions of existence and development, putting their own interests at the forefront.
Q3 – Can we say that Russia is still a global player because it does not only act in the post-Soviet space but continues, albeit with limited instruments, to be present in various global theaters?
A3 – In fact, it would not be correct to say that Russia is only playing in the post-Soviet space, seeing the strengthening of diplomatic and economic relations in various regions.
We discussed strengthening Moscow’s authority and expanding its presence in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, in relations with China, India and other countries. You correctly noted that Russia’s arms presence has decreased, however, its diplomatic role has increased.
Russia continues its work as a permanent member of the UN, BRICS and SCO.
The Russian President recently made state visits to North Korea, Vietnam, Beijing, Minsk, and Tashkent.
Many leaders of countries in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America have already announced their plans to visit Russia in the near future. Of particular importance for the Russian side will be the holding of the BRICS summit in Kazan next autumn, where, in addition to the permanent members, other leaders of the global South will be invited. With his foreign policy activity, the Russian President also signals to his Western opponents that any attempt to isolate Moscow on the international stage has no chance of success.
Moscow’s multipolar policy is supported by most countries of the world, and its authority and influence are growing.
Q4 – Cooperation with the Middle East and North Africa region is “one of the priorities of Russia’s foreign economic policy”, said Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Rechetnikov. These countries, whose role in the world “is growing significantly,” have an “independent” foreign policy and have “always been reliable partners for Russia,” the minister said, calling for joint projects and the creation of “regional economic cooperation”. What’s your opinion? In which sectors do you see better prospects for Russian investments and trade in the Middle East?
A4 – The Middle East is changing, new trends can be seen in the economy, social life and political relations. The Middle East believes in its future role as an energy hub.
Today, the economy of Saudi Arabia is one of the most dynamic in the world. The KSA authorities are focusing on the development of the financial sector (Saudi Arabia Vision 2030).
The UAE aims to become a global financial hub. Dubai is the financial center of the UAE, claiming to be the most modern financial hub, along with New York, London, Singapore and Hong Kong. The plan to transform Dubai into one of the world’s four leading financial centers by 2033 was unveiled by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, in early January 2023 (the Emirate’s new economic agenda called ‘ D33’). At the moment, the main advantage of the UAE financial market is the stability and predictability of interest rates, high reputation and confidentiality.
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2024, Russia), economic relations between Russia and Egypt were noted on a very high level. Negotiations for the signing of a free trade agreement between the countries are currently underway, while those for the implementation of the Suez Canal Economic Zone are in the final stages (as the President of the Egyptian Exporters’ Association Expolink, Mohamed Kassem, pointed out).
The Gulf countries focus on the development of the manufacturing sector, recognising their dependence on the energy sector. Localisation of production is encouraged, with tax incentives for production or final assembly in KSA, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and others. Free economic zones are widely used for this purpose. Russian companies are able to offer solutions, highly welcomed in the Gulf countries, in the fields of food safety, space technology and artificial intelligence.
At the moment, the main challenge is payment systems, but work to fix it is underway. Therefore, there are great prospects for Russian investment and trade in the Middle East.
Tatiana Pokrovskaia – International business development professional.