The Caucus has been one of the regions that have been the epicentre for constant tensions, political disagreements and territorial disputes. With the absence of the Soviet supervision in the region, the centuries-old disputes came back to the surface. In some cases, these disagreements were resolved through political compromises. However, certain conflicts have escalated into full-scale wars that have taken thousands of lives in this region.
One of those conflicts is the territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. These two former Soviet nations are involved in a centuries-old dispute about the Nagorno-Karabakh region which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia. And while Armenia has been the dominant force in the past, the Azerbaijani side has been constantly improving its political stance and military capabilities.
Azerbaijan – Turning the Tide
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that lasted from 1988 to 1994 resulted with a ceasefire which put the region under Armenian control. Moreover, to add salt to the wound, the Azerbaijani side lost 9 more of its regions that fell under Armenian control. The Armenian military dominance was obvious in this conflict as the Azeri side settled for the status quo at the time. However, it seems that Baku has never accepted the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is in Armenian control. However, the Azeri strategists acknowledged that at the time they could not do more. Freezing the conflict but maintaining the political stance by not accepting the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the general belief was that this policy will have a galvanizing effect on the Azeri interest in this conflict. Well, that stance seemed to be the right one as in 2016 April War, the Azeri side had a swift offensive that ended with two regions coming under the Azeri control before agreeing on a ceasefire.
During this short confrontation, the Armenian side used the same tactics as in the previous conflicts with a full-scale response to the Azeri offensive. However, the modern military hardware that was put in place for the first time was the backbone for the military success of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. It surely gave more confidence to Baku that can gain more in the future in the next escalation.
The Russian Influence
The Russian stance in this conflict has been pretty simple and clear. The Kremlin supported both sides in the dispute by encouraging both sides to find a peaceful solution. However, at the same time, the Russian Federation has supplied both parties with arms in order to keep the balance of power between both countries. This has created a certain frustration for Baku as they end up on the losing side on the short term. In that regard, the Azeri government have embraced the political solution of the dispute.
On the Lookout for New Allies
While the Russian position for freezing the conflict become clear with time, Azerbaijan has never accepted the fact that a significant part of its territory is in the hands of Armenia. With the increased revenues from the oil and gas exports, Baku was able to invest significant funds into modernizing its military capabilities. President Ilhan Aliyev sought to find new allies in Turkey, Israel and the United States.
According to the president, Azerbaijan bought military hardware worth $5 million from Israel. The purchase of new modern anti-tank missile launchers, drones and electronic warfare systems gave the platform for the Azeri Armed Forces to once again be able to conduct offensive operations in the region.
Combined with the constant Turkish partnership, the Azeri Armed Forces were able to rebuild after the devasting losses in the 90’s. The official Ankara stance is a direct support for Baku in this conflict.
The third notable element was the involvement of the United States. The Azeri Armed Forces sought active advisers in the process of transformation, modernization and reorganization.
Ground for Further Escalation
While the 2016 April Escalation only lasted for six days, it showed that it can reemerge the old conflict between the two sides. The Azeri Armed Forces are actively preparing for the next confrontation. Their latest military drills in July 2018 just showed that President Ilham Aliyev still aims to resolve the issue with Armenia with military means.
The military exercise involved up to 20,000 soldiers, combined with more than 120 tanks and other armoured vehicles. The drills included a new Israeli 200 rocket and artillery mounts of different calibre, multiple launch rocket systems and mortars, up to 30 units of the army and front-line aviation. These modern pieces of equipment proved to be very effective and lethal against the Soviet military hardware that is used by the Armenian Armed Forces.
Also, It seems that Baku will aim to take advantage of the political turmoil that is currently happening in Yerevan. With the Armenian side being in political conflict about taking the path towards the West or maintaining their place in the East block, gives an advantage to Baku to prepare for the next escalation.
The second notable element that portrays the increased Azerbaijani political and military influence is the fact that they new Armenian prime minister called for negotiations about the future of the region.
We can conclude that the prospect of Azerbaijan to conduct a new offensive in the coming years are quite high. With the increased military power combined with the active support from other regional players such as Israel and Turkey, the government of Ilham Aliyev is beating the war drums.
Combined with the constant internal political turmoil in Armenia, it seems that the clock is ticking in favour of Baku.