By Denis Korkodinov
In February 24-25, 2020, US President Donald Trump will pay a state visit to India. During the visit, the head of the White House and the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, are expected to sign a number of bilateral agreements related to economic and military cooperation.
In addition, the crisis in Kashmir and the recent meeting of Turkish President Recep Erdogan with the head of the Pakistani government Imran Khan in Islamabad will be the subject of US-Indian discussion. Washington may use the Turkish “courtesy visit” as an excuse to escalate the Indo-Pakistani conflict.
The upcoming Indian tour of the head of the White House should be considered, among other things, in the context of the election campaign unfolding in the United States. Donald Trump is actively using international contacts on the eve of the presidential election to ensure his re-election on the second line.
Over the past 3 months, many events have occurred that have significantly strengthened the position of Donald Trump in the election race. These include the elimination of the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the commander of the Quds forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Kassem Soleimani. And, despite the fact that these facts were perceived ambiguously in the international arena, for the average American voter they are a vivid manifestation of the US victory over international terrorism.
It was probably this circumstance that played a significant role in the process of acquitting Donald Trump in the impeachment case. After the victory, even if ephemeral, over international terrorism, the head of the White House is forgiven for all his mistakes. It is for this reason that Donald Trump, with a high degree of probability, will be once again elected president of the United States.
In addition, the victory of the current White House leader is facilitated by the internal political processes taking place in the country. In particular, in the state of Iowa, primaries were held to determine the candidate from the Democrats for the post of head of state. This primaries actually turned out to be a failure, as the vote is currently being disputed by former mayor of Indiana town Pete Buttigueg and Senator Bernie Sanders, who seek to compete with Donald Trump. Due to the fact that the result of the primaries was not recognized by any of the candidates, the Democratic Party, in fact, was defeated in one of the decisive US states, without even entering the active phase of the election campaign.
Against this background, the climax in the US political show was the official appeal of Donald Trump to the nation, and subsequently to Congress. The head of the White House did not conceal his triumph and already then understood that he confidently won the votes of the majority of voters. This, in fact, impudent behavior of the American leader was sharply condemned by the Democrats, as a result of which the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, even broke the text of the appeal of Donald Trump.
Thus, the President of the United States intends to make his visit to India in a completely new status as a triumphant who not only eliminated international terrorists, but was also able to crush his opponents inside the country. For this reason, the position of New Delhi in the framework of the announced new phase of economic and military cooperation with Washington is unlikely to have any significance. Donald Trump will meet with Narendra Modi in order to force him to fulfill American conditions.
The situation in Kashmir is likely to require separate US attention. After the perfect “deal of the century” between Israel and Palestine, Donald Trump, apparently, can not stop. In this regard, on his initiative, Islamabad and New Delhi should sit at the negotiating table in the near future to discuss a new “deal of the century” between India and Pakistan. A surprise for the Pakistani side is likely to be that the Donald Trump project aims to formally legitimize Indian claims for the state of Kashmir.
In addition, the White House administration is very concerned about the visit of the Turkish president to Islamabad. According to American sources, Ankara intends to agree with Imran Khan regarding Pakistani participation in Syria and Libya, which is clearly contrary to American interests.
Given the fact that Pakistanis openly take a very hostile position towards the United States, it should be assumed that their participation in the Syrian conflict will pose an additional threat to US troops based on the territory of Syria. And, despite the fact that Turkish plans to involve Islamabad in regional conflicts represent unconfirmed information, there is no less, for Washington this is an alarming signal.
Donald Trump is trying to prevent such a development of events, in connection with which he could suggest Narendra Modi to provoke a series of local clashes on the Indo-Pakistani border in order to distract the armed forces of Pakistan from the implementation of Turkish plans and focus on the direct threat posed by New -Delhi.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)