By Denis Korkodinov
Despite the progress made between Turkey and Washington for the creation of a “safe zone” in the northeastern of Syria, Ankara reserves the possibility to oppose the Americans, if its interests are ignored. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to solve the Syrian refugees problem on his own, due the fact that it increases the risk of a coup in Turkey.
In the international arena, it is generally accepted that the “security zone” of Turuia is necessary in order to neutralize the threat posed by the “YPG”. At least, Recep Erdogan has repeatedly stated this, speaking to his colleagues. However, Turkey also needs the northeast of Syria in order to decide to suppress the intra-Turkish protest.
The growing influence of the opposition in Turkey is forcing Recep Erdogan to demonstrate his own ability to influence world politics and determination to protect the foundations of the state from external pressure, especially from the Syrian Kurds.
Refusing to participate in the military campaign in Syria would mean for the Turkish leader a recognition of defeat, which would negatively affect his further political fate. In addition, the growth of the so-called “Syrian factor”, when more than 3 million Syrian refugees, mostly not loyal to Recep Erdogan, create tension within Turkey, are forcing Ankara to get rid of the growing national opposition as quickly as possible.
For this reason, Recep Erdogan is pressing on Washington for the creation of a “security zone” where Ankara could move Syrian citizens, who pose a danger to the existence of the Turkish regime. Meanwhile, the US prefers not to hurry on that, since the significant presence of Kurds in the region can negatively affect the provision of American interests. If they consider to have taken an offense by Washington, the Kurds can weaken the fight against the Islamic State or even begin to cooperate with it. Among other things, “YPG” may attack the American military contingent, which will create additional problems for the US in the Syrian theater of operations.
Ankara and Washington are not yet able to decide about the nuances of the security agreement. So, Recep Erdogan insists that the “security zone” should be at least 40 kilometers in depth. But the White House administration considers this an excessively large installation, since a of 40 kilometers will force not only the Kurds to move to the Syrian border, but it will also benefit the neighboring states, for example Iraq, creating significant military advantages for Baghdad, which Washington clearly would not like.
Turkey has an extremely high level of public discontent with Syrian refugees. The surge in criminal activity and unsanitary conditions is attributed by local residents to the growing number of Syrians in the country. And this circumstance, in the end, may be decisive on the agenda of Turkey. Turks may organize protests and require Recep Erdogan to expel refugees back to Syria. The Turkish non-systemic opposition is most likely ready to take advantage of the protests in its interests, adding social requirements to social requirements, such as the resignation of the country’s president because of his incapacity to solve the migration problem.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AP/Emrah Gurel