Part II of the Special Series for Global Organization and Function: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC.
Nuclear zero world directly involves global security as the fundamental element to prevent nuclear war and abolish nuclear weapons so that nuclear potential could be completely extinguished.
To succeed in such a global security goal, the function and role of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) have been critical, and its future vision turns to an important agenda. After serial nuclear bombing in Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945, the international society severely experienced dreadful destruction of nuclear weapons and subsequently, horror of humankind’s annihilation and fatal environmental disaster. Nuclear proliferation and its prohibition automatically became a top priority of global security to control nuclear potential for complete elimination.
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), with a total of 191 states, is an international treaty to prevent the spread of nuclear weapon and its technology between nuclear countries and nonnuclear countries. Simultaneously, it focuses on preventing nuclear possession of non nuclear countries by promoting cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and achieving nuclear disarmament through complete disarmament process. The treaty was originally negotiated by the Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament as a United Nations-sponsored organization in 1968.
Nonetheless, the NPT has exposed unbeatable obstacles to impede its accomplishment toward nuclear zero world by five ratified nuclear countries as the permanent members of the UN Security Council: the U.S., Russia, China, the UK, and France. The NPT would be troubled with a difficulty because of them related to the proliferation while processing nuclear disarmament. They still have around 13,400 warheads in combined stockpile by continuously using nuclear reactors to produce nuclear weapons. Moreover, 25-30 nuclear countries might be predicted within 20 years in addition to India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
Sooner or later, five nuclear countries will no longer be parties to the NPT to pursue their own nuclear capability unless the New Cold War demolishes its drastic system. Such a nuclear environment will seriously damage global security if military powers willingly develop much advanced nuclear techniques and enhance nuclear weapons. When North Korea declared itself as a nuclear country in the early 21st, it stimulated and encouraged nuclear potential countries. Currently, Russia often announces nuclear attacks to Ukraine to end the war in a victory, so most countries in Eastern Europe rush to strengthen military rearmament and nuclear capability. Russia is frantically running out of the NPT’s obligation and China might also consider a nuclear attack to take over Taiwan.
Even though several trials have been adopted to reinforce the NPT’s function, nuclear countries have been out of control and a nuclear nonproliferation regime would be impossible in reality. Nevertheless, the NPT has conducted its mission to eradicate the capability to produce nuclear weapons through variable routes, such as the export controls of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the enhanced verification measures of the IAEA Additional Protocol.
Nuclear World and Global Security
Non-nuclear-weapon states in the NPT should never acquire nuclear weapons or techniques and moreover, nuclear-weapon states have to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and pursue nuclear disarmament for the ultimate elimination of nuclear arsenals.
At this point, the NPT has three main goals to terminate the nuclear world for global security:
First, it is nonproliferation by prohibition that nuclear-weapon states transfer nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices to any non-nuclear-weapon state. It absolutely prevents any kinds of nuclear activities to encourage or induce the manufacture or acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Nonetheless, Russia initially trained North Korean scientists, eager to develop nuclear weapons and North Korea also delivered its nuclear techniques to Pakistan and Iran. North Korea participated in the NPT in 1985 but withdrew it in 1993 and even the IAEA in 1994 so that it finally conducted a nuclear test in 2006.
Second, it is disarmament through effective negotiations relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race or achievement of the complete nuclear disarmament. The NPT represents the only multilateral treaty to obtain the goal of disarmament by nuclear-weapon states that liquidate nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles from national arsenals.
Third, it is the right to peacefully use nuclear technology and benefit from international cooperation with nonproliferation obligations. Nuclear technology and materials of the NPT parties should be transferred for peaceful purposes in development of civilian nuclear energy programs. Thus, IAEA safeguards are a set of technical measures to monitor and demonstrate that nuclear programs are not being used for the development of nuclear weapons.
In addition to nine nuclear countries, there are still nuclear potential countries, subject to access to nuclear weapons. Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Turkey host the U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. Canada, Norway, Denmark, and Spain are also NATO members participating in nuclear planning groups. Even though these countries don’t possess nuclear weapons, they can deploy them with U.S. authorization. Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union’s dissolution but returned them to Russia and joined the NPT. Nonetheless, they still keep nuclear techniques to become a nuclear country after withdrawal of the NPT such as North Korea.
Suspected countries with nuclear programs include Iran, Japan, Libya, Iraq, Egypt, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa. Especially, even though South Korea relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, it has highly advanced nuclear techniques which can manufacture nuclear weapons right away. Australia and New Zealand as a member of ANZUS follow the U.S. nuclear umbrella policy, possible strategic nuclear weapons of the United States. So far, 31 countries have operated 410 nuclear power reactors and 57 reactors are under construction in 17 countries, including 3 countries building their first nuclear reactors. They are very competent and willing to produce nuclear weapons against global security.
Nuclear War Aspects
According to the monthly peer-reviewed academic journal “Nature Food”, a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia holding 90% of worldwide nuclear weapons would kill 360 million people directly in a second, with a further 5 billion people dying from starvation subsequently. As well, more than 2 billion people would even die from a smaller-scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan. If North Korea fires an ICBM loaded with nuclear bombs, it can reach the main territory of the U.S. and such a humongous disaster could be the same with the U.S. nuclear weapons.
Since the Russian invasion, Ukraine has suffered heavy serial attacks from the air and ground. Moreover, the existential threat of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO, which possesses some 12,000 nuclear weapons with a power more than 100 times that of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, has become much more serious. In fact, a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia, considering also that Putin does not rule out the use of tactical nuclear weapons, would be catastrophic not only for the entire planet but also for the universe, wiping out all living existence.
Nuclear war can be defined as a military conflict that deploys nuclear weapons of mass destruction with a long-lasting fatal radiological result in a much shorter period than conventional war. Nuclear warfare scenarios describe a few aspects, with different effects and types of nuclear armaments.
First, a limited nuclear war refers to the controlled use of nuclear weapons, whereby the implicit threat exists that any country can escalate the use of nuclear weapons. For example, using a small number of nuclear weapons against strict military targets could be escalated through increasing the number of weapons, or the selection of different targets. Limited attacks can be a more credible response against attacks which do not justify all-out retaliation, such as an enemy’s limited use of nuclear weapons.
Second, a full-scale nuclear war consists of large numbers of nuclear weapons used in an entire country. It would destroy the overall economic, social, and military infrastructures of the target resulting in a devastating effect. Sometimes, a limited nuclear war could potentially escalate into a full-scale nuclear war with holocaust between superpowers, taking a broader path to the human extinction. Such a horrific catastrophe of nuclear warfare would certainly cause permanent damage on the planet and its ecosystem with climate change.
Third, it is sub-strategic use such as nuclear bunker buster and Edward Teller § Decision to drop the bombs which envisage nuclear warfare at a strategic level of total war. It includes either low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, or variable yield strategic nuclear weapons in a very limited role. The launch of a limited number of missiles against an adversary or enemy could be exploited as a means of conveying a political message, warning of nuclear attacks.
The United States, French and the UK have nuclear submarines to carry missiles with dial-a-yield warheads for such purpose, potentially allowing a strike as low as one kiloton against a single target. In 1996, the United States adopted a policy targeting its nuclear weapons at non-state actors or terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction. While China and Russia have declarative, unqualified, unconditional nuclear weapons policies of “no first use,” India and Pakistan maintain only a credible minimum deterrence.
Fourth, it is nuclear terrorism and nuclear blackmail by non-state organizations, actors or individuals as nuclear weapons are susceptible to retaliation. The collapse of the Soviet Union has aroused unexpectable challenge that its nuclear weapons became available on the black market. In addition, nuclear weapons of countries with relatively less stable governments such as Pakistan and North Korea would fall into danger. They provide nuclear techniques and cooperative programs to nuclear potential countries or export nuclear weaponry to terrorist groups to make black money. As a result, terrorists and other individual actors attempt to use nuclear weapons, militarily applicable technology, or nuclear materials and fuel.
There is a critical case of nuclear terrorism designed to disperse radioactive materials over a large area using conventional explosives, called as dirty bombs. Its detonation causes severe disruption and requires high cost for decontamination procedures and increased spending on security measures. Radioactive materials can also be used for targeted assassinations as, for example, that of the Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, murdered by poisoning after being exposed to the radioactive polonium-210 in November 2006.
Nonproliferation Process of the NPT and the IAEA
Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General in the IAEA emphasized, “nuclear security is about more than preventing nuclear terrorism. It is about providing clean energy, cutting-edge medicine, nutritious food and hope for a better tomorrow.” It means the IAEA practically conducts a nonproliferation process not only to prevent development of nuclear weapons but also to eradicate its possibility by converting nuclear energy to benefit human society.
Nonetheless, nuclear weapons play a key role in strategic calculations from the legally ratified nuclear countries under the NPT to ambitious nuclear countries as nuclear capabilities shape global security and power structure. Even though some countries have dismantled nuclear programs or rely on alliances for defense, such an invisible apparition of nuclear proliferation continues to suffocate international peace and security.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an intergovernmental, autonomous organization within the United Nations system established in 1957, which simultaneously reports to the General Assembly and the Security Council. Its mission mainly focuses on promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy and inhibits nuclear use with any military purpose by implementing safeguards to verify. The IAEA elevates high standards for nuclear safety to exterminate nuclear ambition and potential. For example, IAEA inspectors conducted verification activities on nuclear fuel at the Dukovany nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic and completed its process in November 2024. The experts focused on seven areas: operation, maintenance, radiation protection, safety management and chemistry.
Following the ratification of the NPT in 1968, all non-nuclear states are required to negotiate a safeguards agreement with the IAEA to monitor nuclear programs and inspect nuclear facilities. The IAEA maintains several programs that encourage the development of peaceful applications of nuclear energy, science, and technology. It also provides international safeguards against misuse of nuclear technology and materials, and promote and implement nuclear safety including radiation protection with nuclear security standards.
Moreover, the IAEA helps nuclear decarbonize electricity supply that it launched the Atoms4NetZero initiative to harness the power of nuclear energy in the transition to net zero. It seeks the potential as the reliable backbone of clean, affordable, resilient and more secure energy transitions. 51 countries have already promoted the substantial role of nuclear power in achieving their goals for climate change mitigation, energy security and sustainable development. The climate crisis and the energy crisis have prompted more countries to consider nuclear power as part of the solution, showing an increasing acceptance rate.
The International Conference on Nuclear Security (ICONS) organized by the IAEA also serves as a policy platform to discuss current security priorities, challenges, and approaches. This is an opportunity to reaffirm member states’ commitment towards the promotion of the peaceful use of nuclear technology for global prosperity. Experts concentrate on issues surrounding new, evolving technologies with the landscape of nuclear security, such as microreactors and artificial intelligence by informing preparation for the IAEA’s 2026-2029 Nuclear Security Plan.
Nuclear Zero World
There are four obstacles impeding the nonproliferation process toward a nuclear zero world:
First, it is the fixation of imbalance as being asymmetry between nuclear countries and nonnuclear countries. The NPT ratified the U.S., Russia, China, the UK, and France as a nuclear state but on the contrary, it has prevented nuclear development of other states. Such a hypocritical reaction and policy result in secret development of nuclear potential countries with independent nuclear programs. It is the top obstacle of the NPT that general and equal agreement toward nuclear zero world could be impossible to reach.
Second, it is the security issue of nuclear countries violating regulation or monitoring systems without participating in the NPT. India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea declared themselves as a nuclear country by developing nuclear weapons while undermining credibility of the NPT.
Third, it is the limitation of verification, fulfillment and system disturbing effective process of the NPT, even though the IAEA should monitor and verify nuclear programs of each country. North Korea has continuously conducted nuclear tests by rejecting nuclear investigation and it has exploited nuclear weapons as a core measure of challenging international security.
Fourth, it is delaying the process and ambiguous future of nuclear disarmament without a fruitful outcome. The New START was extended to February 4, 2026, by placing verifiable limits on all Russian deployed intercontinental-range nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, Russia is pushing to develop advanced nuclear techniques. Nuclear countries also have ambitions to use nuclear weapons, losing faith in the nuclear-zero world.
Global Zero’ has been a platform with the most prospective vision of nuclear zero world, launched in December 2008. It is an international non-partisan group of 300 world leaders dedicated to achieving the elimination of nuclear weapons. Goals mainly include the initiation of United States–Russia bilateral negotiations for reductions to 1,000 total warheads each. Furthermore, it induces commitments from other key countries to participate in multilateral negotiations for phased reductions of nuclear arsenals. ‘Global Zero’ works to expand the diplomatic dialogue with key governments and to develop policy proposals on the critical issues related to nuclear zero world.
The Global Zero Plan’ for the phased, verified elimination of all nuclear weapons focuses on a four-phased strategy to reach a global zero accord over 14 years in 2010-2023 and to complete the dismantlement of all remaining nuclear warheads over the following 7 years in 2024-2030. Especially, Phase 3 in 2019-2023 was signed by all nuclear capable countries for the phased, verified, proportional reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads by 2030 and continues its verification and enforcement system.
As well, ‘Net Zero Nuclear’ aims to recognize and advance the essential role of nuclear energy in global efforts to combat climate change by tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050. It brings world leaders, policymakers, the nuclear industry, scientists, civil society, and activists together. The IAEA successfully applies its mission to eradicate nuclear transformation.
Therefore, the NPT’s function can be reinforced by variable visions and activities toward a nuclear zero world and the IAEA will fulfil its practical process with more verified systems. The best solution comes from the clear benefit that the international society fully exploits nuclear energy for human life by discarding nuclear weapons with military purpose and abolishing nuclear programs. Nuclear zero world seems far away, where humankind can’t reach but it will finally come true by the NPT and the IAEA for global security and prosperity.
Author: Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).