By Denis Korkodinov
The decision made by the Turkish-American meeting to create a safe zone in northeast Syria, on the one hand, makes adjustments to Ankara’s plans to launch another military campaign against the YPG ( People’s Protection Units, the national Kurdish army in Syria ), and on the other hand complicates the dialogue between the Kurds and the White House administration , and also contributes to the revival of the Islamic State.
The decision on the safe zone was made after the Turkish president actually ordered the start of the military operation in the north-eastern part of Syria and even publicly announced the date when this operation will begin. Such a Turkish demarche excited Washington, which was in a state of choice between two allies – Turks and Kurds.
The situation is complicated by the fact that in case of loss of confidence of the Kurds, the United States runs the risk of a sharp increase in the activity of the Islamic State, which the Kurds will not show interest in fighting. In addition, the regrouping of units of the Turkish army previously operating in the Syrian province of Idlib contributes to the resumption of the Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham attack on the positions of the Syrian government forces, which, in turn, causes concern for the parties of official Damascus and Moscow. Therefore, the Turks were offered the option that would delay the start of hostilities against the “YPG” and create the basis for the negotiation process.
According to the agreements reached, the safe zone regime should be jointly controlled by Turkish and American forces. However, the plan proposed by Ankara does not contain any specific information about which specific settlements will be in the control zone of Turkey and the United States. In addition, after a reduction on the initiative of Donald Trump of the American group of forces in Syria, Washington is not able to provide control in this security zone. In this regard, the plan for joint control with Turkey may be called into question.
Moreover, according to some experts, Washington deliberately proposed to Recep Erdogan a deliberately impracticable plan to delay the negotiation process and prevent a Turkish offensive in the near future. Meanwhile, the time gained in this way is likely to be used by the White House administration in order to withdraw Kurdish armed formations from the region to a safe distance and minimize their clashes with the Turkish army.
Ankara explains the reasons for its military campaign by the fact that it intends to use the security zone for the resettlement of Syrian refugees, for the maintenance of which the Turkish government does not have sufficient funds. However, such a prospect can dramatically change the demographic situation in the region, which can lead to a humanitarian crisis, since Syria also does not have the means to provide for migrants.
In addition, in the case of the resettlement of Syrian refugees to the security zone under the control of Turkey, an escalation of ethnic conflicts is likely because the local Kurdish population is not ready to cede its territory to anyone else. Similar processes were already taking place in Afghanistan in January 2018, when the Kurds living in the city found themselves in a state of a discriminated minority.
There are concerns that along with Syrian refugees, representatives of the “Islamic state” may enter the region, who during the active phase of the fight against the caliphate, were transferred to refugee camps in Turkey (which is about 130,000 people). When the Turkish army moves to the north-east of Syria, these camps will be virtually unguarded, as a result, ISIS supporters and their families can rush to the nearest areas and attempt to revive the Islamic State.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AP