Eslam Abdelmagid Eid
Joe Biden was able to turn the US election results in his favor, after outperforming his Republican rival Donald Trump.
The official announcement of Biden’s victory came after the outcome of the state of Pennsylvania in his favor was known, a state where Trump initially seemed to have the advantage over his Republican rival. Thus Biden becomes the forty-sixth president of the United States. This is in the light of great anticipation in various parts of the world, due to the repercussions that the policies of the new president may have, especially since Washington has the lion’s share in influencing the conflicts that have raged throughout the international system for many decades.
Important questions now arise: what are the strategies of the new master of the White House, especially with regard to the current burning issues in the Middle East, the most important of which are the future of the nuclear deal with Iran and the future of relations with the allies in the Gulf, in addition to the possible scenario of the normalization process of the countries of the region with Israel.
But our topic here refers to another issue, in which incoming President Joe Biden played a major role, which is the plan to divide Iraq into three federal regions (a Shia region in the south, a Sunni region in the west and in the north of Iraq and a Kurdish region, which is already present). In September 2007, the Senate of United States approved a non-binding plan to divide Iraq into three federal regions on sectarian and ethnic lines, and Joe Biden was then head of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Commission, and he himself presented this project.
Biden stuck on the partition project
Biden’s proposal for the partition project in Iraq dates back to 2006, which saw the most ferocious moments of sectarianism in the history of Iraq, where the bloody battles between Shiites and Sunnis were most intense in the country, and the country at that time. suffered from kidnappings and murders based on sectarian identity, which prompted Joe Biden, in his New York Times article at the time, to propose the three-region project in Iraq, explaining that federalism was the most appropriate solution for the country at that stage.
Biden’s most important step in this context was, as we mentioned, to present the project to the US Senate in September 2007. During that time, Biden’s proposal may appear to be related to what Iraq was going through, so just a simple proposal that would not survive the duration of the civil war. But this did not happen. Biden returned to the issue again and affirmed his support for this solution in an article published in the Washington Post in August 2014, in which he hinted at the need to establish an “effective federal system” as a way to overcome the divisions in Iraq, and he also added that the deep sectarian divisions and political distrust have drained the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces and strengthened the capabilities of Islamic State (ISIS) militants.
The constitutional framework for the formation of regions in Iraq
The Iraqi constitution of 2005 provides for the formation of regions. Even if certain restrictions for their establishment, one or more governorates can form a region, according to the constitution.
The article 116 of the constitution states: “The federal system in the Republic of Iraq consists of a capital, decentralized regions and governorates and local administrations”, which means the possible transition of Iraq from a unitary system of government to a system federal.
Four following articles (117-121) complete the legal framework envisaged for the regions. According to the Article 119 , one, or more governorates have the right to form a region if requested through a referendum. Such request can be done in two ways: first, from a third of the members in each of the provincial councils that intend to form a region, and second, from a tenth of the voters in each of the governorates who intend to form the region. In addition, the Article 120, defines the authorities of the region, which can exercise legislative, executive and judicial powers.
This constitution also approves the establishment of special forces and guards for the region, in accordance with Article 121, which states the following: the regional government authorities are responsible for all that is required by for the administration of the region, and in particular the establishment and organization of the region’s internal security forces, such as the police, security and regional guards.
So the constitution has legalized the right to establish autonomous regions, which places Iraq, a country characterized by ethnic and religious diversity, facing the danger of division at any time, especially given the weakness of central authority in Baghdad and his inability to strengthen his grip on the matters.
Possible scenarios
Predicting what will happen in the next period remains a very complicated matter, especially with Joe Biden coming to power. The future for the Three Territories project is still open to all possibilities. The main factor and the driving force of this project remains in the existing days. It will be in the hands of the next White House master, Joe Biden, and it will depend on the response of internal parties in Iraq to this project, also in light of the economic crisis affecting Iraq, which puts us in front of one of the following scenarios:
1- The possibilities of partition increase with the arrival of Biden
This first scenario will inevitably depend on a number of important factors, namely:
1- Joe Biden’s clear desire to move forward with the partition project, especially as this will have a big impact on the Iranian opponent, as Tehran currently has enormous influence in Iraq, and the split will limit this influence. The Three Territories project will allow the United States to forge alliances with Sunni politicians in the new region, away from the grip of the central authority in Baghdad, which includes a large number of Tehran loyalists, as America did with the Kurds in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, to reduce the Iranian area of influence in Iraq.
2- Democrats walking in the same direction adopted by Joe Biden, especially with regard to the Middle East dossier. It is worth noting that Biden himself was in charge of the Iraq dossier when he was Barack Obama’s vice president.
3- The continuation of the current movement in the western region of Iraq, in particular the Anbar province, regarding the formation of a Sunni region, with the continuing complaints about the continuing campaigns of kidnappings and forced arrests of the people of the region, also after the departure of the ISIS from Anbar. Furthermore, supporters of this movement are encouraged by the enormous resources of gas, oil, phosphates, high purity silica and other minerals and natural resources in Anbar.
2- The difficulty of proceeding at present with the division project
The second scenario is based on two factors:
1- The demographic nature of Iraq makes the partition process complicated. There are many minorities in Iraq besides Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds, especially Turkmen, Christians, Sabeans and Yazidis, as Biden’s plan did not address their fate in light of the proposed tripartite division, as did any group ethnicity of the Muslim population of Iraq. Above all, Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen are sectarianly divided into Sunnis and Shia, just as each tribe of the Arab tribes in central and southern Iraq is historically and ideologically divided into Sunni and Shia tribes.
2 – There are major geopolitical changes that have occurred in the region, after the events of 2003, and civil war in 2006, as the United States now no longer has the same influence as it did during the American invasion of Iraq, hence the formulation of the policy Iraqi is no longer exclusively tied to the United States, which among other things desperately need an agreement with Tehran. The partition project will require many factors that the American leadership alone will not be able to implement on the ground, especially given the lack of commitment that the Democrats, even during the Obama period, have shown in the main Middle Eastern issues.
Author: Eslam Abdelmagid Eid (Academic, political researcher, and specialist in Middle East affairs)
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)