By Saamia Jahangir
In Chinese politics, leaders use slogans to communicate their vision. This grants the slogans immense importance as they build or destroy the political existence of leaders.
The Xi Jinping’s idea of Chinese Dream, promoting the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, distinguishes him from any of his predecessor of the Communist Party.
This promotion was not merely for the Chinese, but aimed to attract the globe and win the “American Dream.” Xi Jinping, the China’s most acclaimed leader after Moa Zedong, envisioned remedying historical grievances of China: the colonial exploitation, rebellions, state collapse, Japanese occupation and civil war, urging the Chinese nation to rise as a global economic power in the time span of just 3 decades. Xi’s Chinese Dream visualizes China becoming a global superpower by 2049.
In his own words, the Chinese Dream is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Consequently the Chinese government is pursuing a global development plan which involves infrastructure development and investments in 152 countries, in Asia, Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Americas.
However, a number of recent events may put doubts on the future of Chinese Dream.
On one hand, America’s trade tariffs slowed the Chinese pace towards reaching the top economic power. On the other hand, the latest novel coronavirus pandemic has unveiled the brittleness of Chinese system. The virus emerged from the central city of Wuhun, located in Hubei province and created an unprecedented scenario in which more than 50 million people went into isolation in 15 cities in China, and hitting hard the high-tech, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automotive industry.
In the debate over globalization versus nationalism, China has been the biggest bandwagon of globalization. Globalization made people believe that anyone could benefit from the trend of higher profits and better international prosperity, and China has demonstrated that companies can establish supply chains in labor extensive and cost effective areas. However, the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic has altered the situation. It highlighted the risks of concentration of global supply chains in China. The phrase “When China sneezes, the world economy catch a cold” has been proved true.
Chinese manufacturing centers have collapsed and the whole world is facing the chain effects. The system in China failed while dealing with this virus, that is not just controlled by the ability to build hospitals at a quick pace, but by the capability to nurture trust between government, public and health professionals. However, the response of Chinese government towards the pandemic at the beginning has been questionable.
The resistance of Beijing from highlighting the severity of the virus may have made the situation worse. The crisis has demonstrated that the centralized system has numerous flaws, making the Chinese society fragile. The ‘top-down control’ does not allow anybody to act until orders from the top arrive.
A delayed response was adopted, when a need for quick response was required. Hence, China was experiencing a surge of fear.
China has an industry of rare species worth of $73 billion. These farms are forced to be closed leaving numerous people jobless. The closing of 460,000 firms has resulted in the contraction of Chinese economy up to 6.8%. This health crisis will affect the small and medium scale enterprises the most. These enterprises make up to 60% of China’s GDP. They are not directly financed by the mainstream banks so they will suffer the most.
The government may be not able to provide bailout package for them, leaving a large number of people uncertain of their future. This could have as result a deficit of trust between citizens and government. The flaws of the government are evident to the public and international community as well.
The prosperity of the nation is very important for the Chinese citizens. They trade their privacy and political rights in exchange of the economic well-being. Hence, any derailment may damage the political legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. The coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation for the government that was already dealing with Trump’s game of tariffs. Lockdown on large scale and closure of industries and stores put a strain on the economy. This may further shatters the idea of Chinese Dream.
Similarly, the sentiment of “Sino-phobia” has witnessed a surge. People around the world have blamed Chinese eating habits for their current grievances. Trade, tourism, summits and cultural exchange: all have suffered a blow. Most importantly, the projects under Belt and Road Initiative are also at a standstill.
The fear of infection has taken over and the travel bans have worsened the situation for workers. Although the World Health Organization made it clear that travel bans on China were not necessary, 96 countries adopted severe travel restrictions.
The outbreak of Covid-19 has also been seen as an opportunity by many countries, for which the relocation of production units from China could be beneficial.
There is still much to discover about Covid-19, and its full impacts will be understood only in the years to come. However, there is no doubt that the “Chinese Dream” may experience a serious setback.
The world no longer seems to be in nostalgia regarding the glorious rise of Chinese economy. Moreover, the global population is no longer waiting in lines to get even a minor part in Chinese stakes. So, it may take several years for China to get back on pre-corona conditions.
Author: Saamia Jahangir
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).