By Anna Ayriyan
EADaily reports that an event occurred on July 27 whose importance for the entire Turkish-speaking world should not be overstated. However, the same event should certainly become a wake-up call for the entire Middle East, as well as for the countries of Central Asia.
We are talking about the Baku Declaration, signed by the President of the Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan Sahib Gafarov, the President of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey Mustafa Shentop and the President of the National Assembly of Pakistan Asad Qaiser.
The trilateral alliance concluded between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan implies not only the implementation of Recep Erdogan’s pan-Turkish plans and cooperation in various fields, especially military, but also the mutual support of these countries on the issues of the disputed territories. For example, Turkey and Azerbaijan support the Pakistani point of view on the Kashmir issue, and Pakistan, in turn, has expressed its solidarity with its brothers in Baku on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
So, will there be a Turkish military base in Baku?
Azerbaijan’s victory in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war and the signing of the Shusha Declaration on June 15, 2021, give Erdogan the opportunity to create a base in Azerbaijan.
But, in our opinion, the creation of a Turkish base in the territory of Azerbaijan is unlikely, since at the moment Azerbaijan, as a victorious country, would not be honored by the presence of such a facility. Continuing the logical chain, we can make the following assumption: Azerbaijan has already received its share of Turkish assistance, having earned the status of a winner in the war in the region. It is no secret that during the last war Turkey not only intensively supplied the Azerbaijani army, but also ensured the direct involvement of Turkish military and intelligence personnel in active combat operations.
However, the very possibility of establishing a Turkish base in Azerbaijan should not be denied – especially if we remember the concept of “one nation, two states”. Moreover, the events of 2020 are a vivid example of how the Turkish “Sultanate” uses its military resources, under the pretext of assistance in the supply of weapons.
However, let us consider the possibility of establishing a base through the prism of Turkey’s regional neighbors. First of all, Erdogan’s statements should alert the Kremlin, because Turkey, which is part of the NATO alliance, is creating another time bomb – right on the territory of the post-Soviet state. It also casts doubt on Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus, because the state of Azerbaijan, a partner state of Russia, is gradually becoming a Turkish stepping stone to achieve the goals of Panturkism.
Iran is in an awkward position. In the issue of the creation of Greater Turan, Iran appears as an antipode of Turkey, since the northern part of the Islamic Republic may become the main theater of future developments since for the implementation of the ideas of Panturkism Turkey needs the territory of Iran, which, in the eyes of pan-Turkish ideologues, is “South Azerbaijan.”
Implications for Central Asia
The very notion of Turan is undoubtedly linked to the countries of Central Asia and the war in Artsakh. The spread of Turkish soft power in the South Caucasus has led to a worsening of the security problem for other countries in the region and beyond. In fact, Central Asian countries in current realities are the sphere of influence of Russia and China. Undoubtedly, the two superpowers have been able to consolidate their positions in the region using agreements and initiatives such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), One Belt, One Road (OBOR), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and so on as leverage.
It is also obvious that the interaction of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with the Russian Federation (RF) is greatly facilitated by common institutions with four of the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) – (SCO). Although Turkmenistan is not formally a member of the SCO, it is nevertheless de facto involved in the processes of interaction with the member states of this organization.
In our opinion, the spread of Turkey’s influence on the territory of Central Asia should be considered under two scenarios.
First – China and Russia will not allow a third force to strengthen on the southern and western fronts of their territories. It is worth remembering that the Taliban are in close relations with the Chinese leadership and that such cooperation serves to protect northwestern China, the homeland of separatist Uyghurs, whose rights in the international forums are defended by the Turks.
Second – the dream long cherished by the Turkish leadership has prospects for realization, but it is an extremely confusing issue. If we take into consideration the recent events related to Europe’s rejection (under US pressure) of China’s initiatives, we can assume that Turkey will face a decline in economic investments from the Red Dragon, whose main springboard for further actions will gradually become Africa and the Middle East. Pakistan, in turn, will lose its “bridge” function in relations with the Turks, being under the wing of China. In today’s world, no matter how strong the ethnic roots may be, economics and politics decide everything.
We must also refer to the Constitution of Azerbaijan, which prohibits the placement of military bases of other states on the territory of the country, and also taking into account that since May 2011 Azerbaijan is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement (international organization uniting 120 states on the principles of non-participation in military blocs), we can clearly state that the placement of a foreign military base on the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan is contrary to the main law of the country, and therefore it is not possible.
However, despite the fact that the constitutional factor on paper limits the classical deployment of Turkish troops on the territory of Azerbaijan, the Turkish military presence already exists and will increase. Consequently, in the classical sense, Turkey will not be limited to a base.
Author – Anna Ayriyan, sinologist (Armenia – Artsakh)