By Denis Korkodinov – Interview with Iyad al-Majali
The assassination of the Kuds special forces commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Kassem Soleimani, led to a complete transformation of the existing rules of the game in the Middle East. Iran, faced with unprecedented pressure, still intends to take revenge. However, due to the crash of the Ukrainian plane, an act of Iranian revenge is unlikely to involve the use of ballistic missiles.
Now, the Ayatollah regime will act more unconventionally against the United States and Israel through Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups. At the same time, the United States also intends to organize a number of military-political “surprises” for Tehran, planning to eliminate pro-Iranian political leaders.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with the Director of the Arab Democratic Center for Strategic, Political and Economic Studies, a teacher at the Department of Strategic Studies at the University of Mutah (Jordan), Iyad al-Majali.
1. After the attack on the American Al-Ain military base in Iraq, Tehran was confident that Washington would respond with a missile and bomb strike on Iran’s strategic targets, as has been done more than once. However, the assassination of Kassem Soleimani actually perplexed Tehran, since no one in Iran expected Washington to eliminate a senior Iranian general who had tremendous influence throughout the world. In addition, Tehran was clearly not prepared for the fact that as a result of the assassination of the Quds commander in Iran, the contradictions between the Supreme Ayatollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces escalate, which in fact created the conditions for political and military paralysis of the Ayatollah regime . This was used by Washington, which has stepped up a protest movement in Iran, pursuing the goal of another revolution in the country. Is this statement true? Is it possible to believe that the crash of the Ukrainian airliner became possible as a result of direct bribing by the United States of Iranian military personnel who directly gave orders to attack a civilian plane? Will Iran take into account the mistakes that led to the crash of the Ukrainian airliner: will the reform be carried out in the armed forces of the country, national defense will be strengthened, changes will be made to the military doctrine of the state? Will Iran temporarily abandon the practice of using ballistic missiles in order to destroy American objects in order to avoid another crash of civilian aircraft?
IYAD AL-MAJALI: There is no doubt that as a result of recent events, long-standing contradictions between politicians and the military have intensified. And the mechanism of accelerating changes, which led to the emergence of points of collision on the political scene, is nothing more than a manifestation of regional transformation.
In the past, the resistance of the Sunni groups that subsequently formed the Islamic State posed a great threat to the American project in the region. Therefore, the White House administration began to support Shiites and Iran, which allowed the creation of more than 60 armed groups under the command of Kassem Soleimani, the most influential politician in the Iranian political system after the Supreme Ayatollah. Later, however, Kassem Soleimani began to pose a problem, since his leadership in the region significantly interfered with the United States, and therefore began to fear him. As a result, Donald Trump decided to eliminate him.
Meanwhile, the confusion that the Iranian regime experienced after the assassination of Kassem Soleimani led to serious controversy among a number of Iranian institutions, including the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, shocked by the painful blow. As an act of revenge, Tehran attacked a number of US military installations. But this was a very weak answer, which did not correspond to the event that served as its cause. Thus, the ayatollah regime lost a large percentage of its popularity due to a “modest” response to US positions. This was a clear sign of a political disruption caused by the underestimation of the military threat by the Iranian establishment. In addition, this was a manifestation of the conflict between conservative and reformist movements in the institutions of the Iranian regime. Representatives of each trend accuse each other of incompetence, sabotage and inability to manage the most sensitive files in Tehran’s policy. The country has reached a state of political suffocation and worsening conditions in it.
The negative processes presented served as a new incentive for the participants in the protests to come out again and begin to criticize the state.
It is hardly worth considering that the Iranian military could have been half bought by supporters of the United States or Israel on the eve of the crash of the Ukrainian plane. At least at the moment there is no evidence of this. But it is possible that Washington and Tel Aviv may attempt to somehow influence the Iranian army, including through direct bribery.
Of course, Tehran, faced with unprecedented pressure caused by the crash of a civilian airliner, will draw the necessary conclusions and conduct a series of transformations aimed at strengthening the state’s defense capabilities. In addition, most likely, new rules for the interaction of political institutions and the armed forces in crisis situations that require lightning-fast decision-making will be developed. This is necessary in order to minimize inconsistency.
As for the temporary abandonment of the practice of using ballistic missiles in relation to American targets, this is most likely to be done. Now Tehran, most likely, will affect the United States by other methods, more sophisticated and non-standard, where the main weapon will not be missiles, but cunning, maneuverability and accuracy.
2. The crash of the Ukrainian airliner mixed up all the maps in the Middle East, since the “crushing blow” threatened by Iran did little harm to the United States, but led to an increase in protests in Iran itself. Based on this, according to the ayatollah regime, the act of revenge remained unfulfilled. At the same time, analysts are unanimous in the view that Iran needs a lot of time to prepare a real “crushing blow”, which involves striking the United States in the most painful way in the long run. Is it so? Will Iran continue to take revenge on the United States, given that the continued existence of the Ayatollah regime is thrown on the map?
IYAD AL-MAJALI: It is true that the rules of the game in the Middle East have changed dramatically after the crash of a Ukrainian plane. Iran has faced unprecedented pressure both in the international arena and domestically.
Iran’s National Security Council acknowledged the catastrophe was a result of human error. This sharply reduced the level of confidence of ordinary Iranians in the military command of their country, which, as it turned out, did not have modern means of identifying civilian targets. Otherwise, it was impossible to confuse the passenger plane of Ukraine International Airlines with a bomber or a cruise missile.
I am firmly convinced that the political scene in the rounds of the US-Iran conflict will go along the path of negotiations as a result of the regime’s desire for international European support for the nuclear program. At the same time, Iran will not abandon its plans for revenge if it does not receive clear guarantees.
3. After the assassination of Kassem Soleimani, Washington is unlikely to stop the practice of eliminating major competitors in the Middle East, and US interest is likely to move to Lebanon. At least, according to a number of sources, American and Israeli intelligence agencies, through their agents around the world, are currently trying to establish the exact whereabouts of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In addition, the special services of the United States and Israel devote great attention to the Hezbollah General Intelligence Service, known as the “Unit 900”, until recently led by Youssef Nader (Ezz al-Din). Based on this, we can conclude that after Kassem Soleimani, the next victim may be Hassan Nasrallah and the current head of Unit 900, who replaced Yussef Nader and whose name is unknown. What do you think about this? Why is Hezbollah’s leadership viewed by Washington as a deadly threat? Are there obvious signs in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon that an attempt could be made on the life of Hassan Nasrallah and the head of Unit 900? What geopolitical changes in the Middle East and around the world can happen if Washington is able to liquidate Hassan Nasrallah?
IYAD AL-MAJALI: The United States has taken a number of measures against Iran, creating a threat to its security. The American shift in strengthening the rules of interaction with Iran and its proxies was an inevitable consequence of the restructuring of the rules of the game in Iraq and Syria, cutting Iran’s nails and limiting its militia, including in Lebanon.
Currently, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement is the most prominent structure whose political and ideological affiliation is determined by the ruling regime in Tehran. In addition, Hezbollah was able to create a direct threat to Israel in 2006 and, during the whole subsequent period, form the hottest axis of resistance along the northern borders of Palestine. In this regard, Hezbollah poses a threat to the fundamental foundations of the states of Israel and the United States. Therefore, it is deadly for Tel Aviv and Washington.
The option to eliminate Hassan Nasrallah remains on the agenda of the American and Israeli administrations. The implementation of this option may depend on upcoming political events in the region. Moreover, in the event of exacerbation of tension between the countries it is quite possible that the elimination of Hassan Nasrala and his entourage may become a priority for Washington and Tel Aviv. I do not think this is correct. Moreover, I am convinced that the assassination of political leaders is an act of terrorism that no one should follow.
Image Credit: Anadolu Agency