By Saamia Jahangir
In the contemporary scenario of changing geo-strategic ties and political affiliations, the dynamics of alliance and counter-alliances in South Asia are rapidly changing, due to mutable geo-political realities.
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was created in 1985 to promote economic development and social progress in South Asia. At present, it has eight member countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The current evolving scenarios are creating new geo-political realities for the actors involved.
Major regional nation-states involved in this process of alliance-making include two of the most important nuclear states of the world, i.e. India and Pakistan. Afghanistan is a significant Nation-State of South Asia Moreover, the role of Bangladesh as a significant, though passive, is also worth noticing in the realm of South Asian politics. Other regional actors, i.e. Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal are passive observers and inactive members of the South Asian realm of politics in comparison with the role played by Pakistan, India and Bangladesh to some extent. On the other hand, the international community involves itself in the form of ‘Great Power Politics.’ China and United States of America choose their sides not only in the context of Indo-Pak rivalry but also in the adjoining contextualization of Afghanistan which is heavily influential in regards with the geo-strategic politics and alliances of South Asian Politics.
The strategic and political set-up of South Asia in the context of India Pakistan relations has always been a global concern, especially since the two Nation-States have begun the bilateral doctrine of nuclear deterrence. Considered as one of the hottest nuclear flashpoint of the world, Kashmir is the pivotal bone of contention between the two countries and the situation seems to be taking a turn for the worst in the aftermath of revocation of Article 370. Being neighbors in close geographical proximity, there is a great deal of potential in terms of economic partnership and bilateral trade. However, despite such overwhelming scope of cooperation, the two countries have always been at loggers head with each other owing to a number of factors. The historical baggage of a bloody partition coupled with contemporary Hindutva-oriented jingoistic ideology of Saffron India has further created a bifurcation between the two countries to such an extent that they have ended up at opposite sides of the Great Power politics.
The two main international actors involved in the geo strategic politics of South Asia are USA and China. Owing to a divergence in the worldview of both the super powers as well as a relative competition for global hegemony, both sides continue the pursuit of their own security concerns in the region. The recent framework of alliance constructed in the South Asian region involving these two international actors formulates a China-Pakistan vs. USA-India narrative where United States is undertaking a policy of confrontational containment against China by not only criticizing and condemning the collaboration projects of China and Pakistan but also actively engaging in building India’s military and economic capacity in order to enable Delhi to compete with China for the title of Asian Tiger.
The above mentioned alliance framework is quite visible in the economic as well as military accords ratified by these competing Nation-States. For instance, in 2013, China entered into an agreement with Pakistan to undertake one of the biggest infrastructural and capacity building projects in the history of Pakistan known as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Initially valued at $47 Billion, the project has now taken the investment threshold up to $62 billion. CPEC is the flagship project of China’s One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR). The collaboration of Pakistan and China on such a mega project inevitably bind the economic and geo strategic and somewhat political futures of the two countries together. That is why, at international forums, either it be Kashmir cause or Pakistan’s financial sustainability, China seems to be actively advocating in Islamabad’s favor.
On the other hand, ever since the Trump Administration can into the office, not only did Washington slid away from a policy of cooperation with Pakistan in terms of terrorism but also actively embraced Delhi in the form of its 2017 South Asian Policy. In its confrontational attitude towards Pakistan, Washington constantly gives a hard time to Pakistan in terms of its FATF listing and IMF Bail-out packages. For instance, when the nascent government of Imran Khan in Pakistan filed for a bail-out package, US was quick to express its reservations. Mike Pompeo said in an interview;
“There is “no rationale” for a bailout that pays off Chinese loans to Pakistan. Make no mistake. We will be watching what the IMF does. There’s no rationale for IMF tax dollars, and associated with that American dollars that are part of the IMF funding, for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself.”
Trump has taken this tendency one step further by openly accusing Pakistan of robbing the United States of billions of dollars in terms of anti-terrorism coalition funds while playing a double game with the previous administrations. In his first tweet of the year 2018, Trump wrote;
“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”
Along with targeting the China-Pakistan coalition, Washington has been quite proactive in terms of providing strategic, military as well as diplomatic assistance to India in times of need. In its South Asia policy, an evident India-centric undertone was apparent. More recently, in the wake of India’s embarrassing confrontation with Chinese military in a stand-off in Ladakh, United States has decided to step in and assist India by signing a military agreement on sharing sensitive satellite data. After the conclusion of the bilaterally historic “2+2” high-level talks in Delhi in October 2020, the deal was announced which enables India to access data that is indispensable for hitting missiles, drones and other targets with precision. This deal further strengthens US-India strategic alliance patterns In words of Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar;
“Over the last two decades, our bilateral relationship has grown steadily in its substance, facets and significance. The talks would enable the two countries to engage much more intensively on matters of national security“.
All these initiative reflect the inclination of Washington towards Delhi in an effort to counter the growing influence of China in the region as well as worldwide.
The initiation for a peace process in Afghanistan by the Trump organization has reshuffled the alliance pattern to some extent, especially vis-à-vis the confrontational attitude of USA towards Pakistan. Pakistan is a very significant actor in terms of the internal geo-politics in Afghanistan as historically, since CIA used Pakistan to train Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet regime, Islamabad has good faith established within the ranks of Afghan militant groups. Although the official narrative of Pakistan as well as its policy practice towards Afghanistan has always been that of aspiration for peace within Afghanistan, Taliban have always had a soft corner for their teachers and mentors situated within Pakistan since the days of the Cold War. This strategic source of influence makes Pakistan a significant actor in the future of the Afghan Peace Process. The change in the tone of United States President as well as the regular visits of Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad, the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation at the US State Department show Washington’s reliance on Pakistan for the process’ success. All these developments show that the alliance pattern in South Asia is slowly and gradually, not drastically taking a shift which, although unknown at the moment, can have massive impacts on the future of alliance dynamics in South Asia.
Image Credit: AFP