Part VII of the Special Series for Global Peace and Security: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC
The best goal of international society has been how to end the war in human history, which would bring miserable pain and mental disaster in horror. Nonetheless, the maximum speed of military techniques reaches the climax to annihilate human history itself through not only nuclear weapons but also variable biochemical weapons carrying viruses.
Right after World War II as the worst and biggest war in human history, international society became so afraid of facing World War III and its chance was strengthened through the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Afghanistan War in the 20th century. Currently, the Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas War are going toward such a dreadful prediction of World War III. As well, imminent symptoms related to China’s attack on Taiwan and North Korea’s invasion to South Korea agitate global security in danger just like Covid-19.
If the world becomes totally free from any kind of war, all the military techniques and massacre weapons could be abandoned in the dungeon as trash. Ironically, if any country tends to take over global power through hegemony struggle, it automatically focuses on expanding its national competitiveness because the Earth has limited resources and territory. Imperialism comes from extending territory to attain more resources and labor based on economic interest and political power.
Such a fascinating adventure has been continued in the new concept of imperialism in the 21st century unless the global society advances together toward the direction of peace and security. For example, military competition in the field of space technology between the U.S., Russia and China would be concentrated on taking the priority of space exploration. The formidable winner of space imperialism will capture countless beautiful planets as a space pioneer. First finding out a planet will be the first owner for free.
However, if major powers widely open their eyes toward the Cosmos, potential areas will be extended with unlimited scale of colossal space without boundary. Currently, the U.S. and China are fostering projects to install human villages on Mars or other potential planets within 10 years in case of Earth’s annihilation or contamination.
Sooner or later, people will enjoy summer vacation on the Moon and relax in their second home on Mars. The journey will take one hour from the working place on the Earth to a resident place on other planets through Galaxy Express. People might encounter fantastic moments every day while going through Black Hole via WormHole. They can frequently penetrate the whirlpool of the Big Bang like a huge swimming pool filled with fragrant galaxy bubbles.
Potential Area and Ambitious Country
International society is jumping on the space competition based on advanced military techniques with a strong ambition of becoming a space major power. Especially, India, China, UAE, and Korea are the most challenging countries by enhancing military power and simultaneously space power with abundant financial background.
India’s space program has remarkably emerged on the global stage by self-reliance and scientific exploration based on advanced industrial technology. India’s human spaceflight program explores immense potential that the Gaganyaan mission aims to send astronauts into space, solidifying India’s position as a major player in space hegemony.
Koppillil Radhakrishnan, former chairman of ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) emphasized India plays a determining role to explore space as the new frontier of human endeavor. As a result, India has successfully conducted launching missions of over 95%.
The world was astonished when India succeeded in the Chandrayaan-3 mission as the first country which landed on the South Pole of Moon on August 26, 2023. 10 days later, India also launched Aditya-L1, a coronagraph spacecraft to observe the solar atmosphere. It was finally inserted into its designated orbit at the L1 point on January 6, 2024 so that India became the first country in Asia which succeeded in a solar observation mission.
India is the most competent country in space exploration on the top of several key areas.
First, India has a priority in space tourism with cost-effective launch capabilities on the growing space market. India expects economic advantages to reinforce space power.
Second, India is an expert in variable space applications, which expands the use of space technologies like disaster management, agriculture, and resource mapping and transfer them to other countries with a significant impact on national development.
Third, India pursues global leadership by leveraging its strengths and fostering international collaboration as a leading player in global space governance and exploration initiatives.
India’s space program enhances its challenges not only to make significant contributions to the advancement of space technology but also to create a prospective future to extend its territory in space. India is interested in economic benefits rather than military competition.
The U.S. installed ISS (International Space Station) with 13 countries in 1998. But China independently constructed Tiangong, a permanently crewed space station which launched Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2 respectively in 2011 and 2016. After all the successful launches, the separate space telescope module Xuntian is planned to launch in 2025. It will dispatch astronauts to the space research center on the Moon as the headquarters to conduct space projects by 2030. China has already launched space explorers to the Moon and Mars.
Now, China challenges the U.S. in space exploration by expelling Russia, entangled with the Ukraine War. In addition, as a head country in ISS, Russia’s space program no longer explores advanced techniques as Russia’s exclusion has been seriously considered. Space hegemony between China and the U.S. is sharply confronting each other since China turned to be only the military superpower against the U.S.
China’s frantic step in the space race comes from its ambitious national strategy to become a leader in space exploration as a major global space power over the next decade. Wu Yanhua, deputy chief of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) announced that Chinese people will definitely set foot on the Moon by 2030.
China started a roadmap to compete with the Artemis program by NASA and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) led by China was formed in 2021 to construct a permanent scientific base on the Moon from 2026 to 2035. NASA will spend $102.5 billion on the Artemis program from 2012 through 2028. China also spends $12 billion per year to fund the Tiangong space station and a $100 billion lunar program.
UAE’s remarkable leap into the Cosmos and ambition to become a space leader would take a vigorous step by sufficient financial background. UAE has largely imported advanced military weapons to enhance military capacity as a major power in the Middle East and expand its national strategy to become a leading player in the global space competition.
UAE successfully launched the interplanetary spacecraft as the first Arab country to conduct the Hope Mars Mission (Al Amal) on July 19, 2020, which reached Mars on February 9, 2021. It is significantly showcasing not only UAE’s technical expertise but also commitment to space exploration as the fifth right after the U.S., the Soviet Union, ESA, and India. As well, Mars 2117 Project represents UAE’s space ambitions to build the first human settlement on the Red Planet within the next century. To accomplish such an enthralling mission, UAE invests a gigantic amount of budget in advanced space technologies and the required infrastructures.
Even though it failed to land on the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars on April 25, 2023, Rashid was the first Arab-built moon rover loaded with AI, the first time going beyond the Earth orbit in space history. UAE plans to launch a second rover as soon as 2025 and send several vehicles, including rovers and orbiters to the Moon and other seven planets to explore and finally land over there by 2033.
UAE’s space program also envisions itself into a hub for space tourism by establishing a spaceport and investing in companies such as Blue Origin, where millions of people are living and working in space. It aims to attract international investors, researchers, and tourists. Even though UAE is a small country compared to other major space powers, its space ambition guarantees a very prospective future.
As the top country in the fields of advanced industrial and military techniques, Korea’s potential to explore the Cosmos will shake the fundamental structure of space competition in future. Since Korea successfully launched the Nuri rocket in 2022 built by 100% domestic technology, its developing speed is lively, burning up the U.S., and Korea’s core techniques already pushed major powers away.
Korea is underway toward the number one space power in the 7th rank with advanced industrial techniques as well as semiconductor industry, all directly connected to military and space technology. Especially, Korea’s blueprint for the era of space economy includes the development of its own launch vehicles which can travel to the Moon by 2032 and land on Mars up to 2045. To achieve such a fantastic goal, Korea eagerly nurtures the space industry, trains space experts, and cooperates with global space powers.
Korea has pushed its space drive with the first specific long-term roadmap by national space agencies like NASA to land independently on Mars and stick the national flag there by 2045. It will spend $74.5 billion to explore uncharted territories through six action plans: exploration of the Moon and Mars, promotion of space technology, industry, manpower, and space security.
Russia’s Decline in Space Hegemony
Russia announced that it will completely drop out from the ISS Project after 2024 but instead, establish its own space station. But Russia has faced serious dilemmas of a giant amount of extra budget and moreover, troubled with members against multiple sanctions of the international society after it invaded Ukraine.
Russia has been isolated by breaking the cooperation in related fields so that its space techniques would no longer be competitive and old-fashioned. ESA (European Space Agency) canceled the Moon project and even stopped cooperation related to the Mars explorer launch with Roscosmos. China also turns around from Russia and willingly takes over the second position of a space superpower. China already recognized Russia’s obvious decline not only in space technology but also budget and personnel.
With all the negative symptoms, Russia’s space future is not much prospective as its military techniques are overestimated. Russia’s space expenditure in 2022 was just $3.9 billion and even revised it several times during 2023, which might go over the Ukraine War. Compared to China’s $12 billion or $102.5 billion of the U.S. only for the Artemis program, Russia already lost its step to catch up with space powers.
Nevertheless, Putin dared to announce that Russia will develop a 264-satellite constellation to provide internet service and Earth observation capabilities over Russia. But his naïve plan shows how Russia is far from international space competition. Roscosmos reported at the beginning of 2022, the Sphere program was hampered by the colossal shortage of government budget. Furthermore, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, just a few weeks later, brought out serious consequences, making it hard to invest in space programs and became crippled simultaneously.
Yuri Borisov, chief of Roscosmos confessed Russia can build only 40 satellites a year. In addition, building a single satellite takes 18 months longer, unable to develop a mega constellation. On the contrary, the U.S. can build around 3,000 satellites a year and China is capable of manufacturing 1,200 to 1,500 satellites a year. Currently, Russia has a total of 220 satellites in orbit, 2.5% of the global total 9,000 operational satellites.
If the Ukraine War continues, Russia will totally step out from the space power line and its recovery will not happen sooner or later. Russia has been shaming the coarse quality of military techniques and its budget for space programs is running out so fast. Subsequently, its shrinkage in space area results in decline of Russia’s overall competitiveness.
The U.S. Space Exploration
New York Times reported there are around 3,000 artificial satellites including military aims in space out of Earth: the U.S. 1,425, China 382, and Russia 172. Even though China’s space techniques are still not very competitive, its quantity threatens the U.S. Furthermore, China’s new launching numbers reach 39 annually which already exceeded the U.S.
Nonetheless, the U.S. explores the most superior space programs based on advanced military and space techniques with an abundant space budget of $30 billion annually, which doesn’t allow any other country to pass over. As a leading country in a new era for deep space exploration, the U.S. successfully conducts Artemis missions to explore the Moon for scientific discovery and technological advancement, and to work for human missions to Mars.
NASA’s Artemis program conducts the mission to send astronauts back to the moon and closer to Mars. It tends to install base camp on the Moon as a stepping stone not only to Mars but also to other planets. Robots have done all the detective work on Mars so far and NASA will send astronauts there by the 2030s.
For the initial Artemis mission, selected astronauts will fly to the Moon’s South Pole, which has been the most interesting and exciting area to explore. It has great potential to make a human residence there because of the highest abundance of water ice. If this water can be extracted, it could be used to sustain exploration farther into space as a human hydration source, rocket fuel resource, or cooling system for space vehicle equipment.
Especially, NASA plans the first American lunar landing by Artemis 3 in 2026 since Apollo 17. Two astronauts will descend to the lunar surface and spend about 6.5 days. After Artemis 4 in 2028, the third crewed lunar landing will come up in Artemis 5 in 2029, which will deliver four astronauts to the Gateway Space Station. The mission will be also the first to use Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander to bring astronauts down to the Moon’s surface.
If astronauts succeed in landing on the Moon in 2026, the U.S. will be another pioneer to explore the Moon since its first landing in 1972. Furthermore, constructing human villages on the Moon and Mars by the 2030s will be extended to the other planets in the solar system. Finally, the U.S. will lead the era of the Cosmos by reaching another galaxy in the next century.
Military Techniques for the Cosmos Exploration
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported in 2023 that Russia is developing an array of weapons designed to target individual satellites and higher-power systems as threatening the structures of all satellites. Russia is ongoing space anti-satellite nuclear weapons for new nuclear capabilities in space.
The Biden Administration with allied nations tries to prevent Russia from deploying an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space. However, Russia slightly dismissed a warning from the United States. Russia is bound by several legal restrictions that Article 4 of the Outer Space treaty (1967) bans nuclear weapons from being put into orbit, installed on celestial bodies, or otherwise stationed in outer space.
Putin emphasized that space projects, including setting up a nuclear power unit to operate in space, is a priority to get proper financing on time. He insisted that Russia can only flourish as a space superpower in future because other countries don’t possess such a prominent technology.
Ironically, it reveals Russia’s inferiority in space competition by itself that intimidation with nuclear weapons is the only desperate strategy as proved in the Ukraine War. Currently, major space powers focus on exploring the Cosmos for upgrading general human life beyond military purposes by ending all the hegemony wars on the Earth. Russia’s imperialist strategy from the Earth to the Cosmos will be hindered as it has been already expelled from the main space power line.
Outpost stations on the Moon might be built within 10 years. If the U.S. succeeds in landing on the Moon in 2026, astronauts belonging to space power countries will serially land on the Moon. India, China, ESA, UAE, and Korea are very potential right after the U.S. They will lead the new space era to explore the Cosmos in future.
Nonetheless, international space law without timely amendment could be an obstacle to advance toward the Cosmos era. The Outer Space Treaty signed by 107 countries in 1967 is the first treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and the Other Celestial Bodies. It also prevents nuclear weapons deploying in Earth orbit, but Russia is breaking this treaty without legal punishment. In addition, the UN set up a new treaty to prevent commercial use of resources of the Moon and Mars in 1979, but the U.S., Russia, and China all rejected to sign up.
Josef Aschbacher, ESA Director General emphasized that passionate space competition of new generation will be achieved by setting up the revised space treaty because satellites launched by many countries share the same orbit. For example, the U.S., China, Europe’s national mission is landing on the Moon, but only strong treaties will control their competition in a peaceful way.
Therefore, humankind in the Cosmos era will no longer experience war hegemony on the Earth and just enjoy beautiful life in the unlimited deep ocean of the Cosmos filled with fantastic moments and excitement. All the military techniques will be transferred to explore the Cosmos and military weapons will be converted to satellites to carry people from planets to planets every day.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).