After the overthrow and death of Moammar Gaddafi, Libya is still in a state of civil war. The Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar, and the government forces loyal to Fayez al-Sarraj continue to fight for power, so creating uncertainty a threat to the security of the civilian population. Libya was split, and peace in its land became an unattainable dream for many ordinary people in this country. Because of the ongoing military conflicts, Tripoli began to resemble a cauldron simmering over low heat.
About this, specifically for World Geostrategic Insights, Denis Korkodinov talked with the Lebanese political and international relations analyst Fouad Khcheich.
1) The abrupt turn of the White House administration towards the Libyan government forces is forcing Khalifa Haftar to seek new allies in the international arena. So, if after a phone call that took place between Khalifa Haftar and Donald Trump on April 15, 2019, the Libyan field marshal brokered the Linden Strategies lobby organization and hoped that Washington would support his plans to organize a large-scale attack on the positions of government forces. But now the situation has changed dramatically. So, Donald Trump officially stated that he does not intend to support the head of the Libyan National Army. Does this mean that Washington actually sentenced Khalifa Haftar to defeat? What can the Libyan field marshal expect after Donald Trump’s refusal to cooperate with him?
– In the telephone conversation with Khalifa Haftar, the US president seemed to want to prove his fight against the international terrorism. But then he changed his mind. This represents Trump’s indecision and the constant change of his various political views. In addition, France followed the same choice as the United States. However, such a sharp turn will affect their relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf, in particular with the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. If General Haftar relies on Russia’s support, since his last visit to Moscow, it is because Russians see everything differently. They prefer to maintain peaceful relations with all parties to the conflict in Libya and do not intend to cross the “red line”, supporting only Caliph Haftar.
2) On July 24, 2019, Libyan government forces officially announced that they were able to ensure absolute control over the city of Garyan. This information is confirmed, includingfrom the representative of GNA, Colonel Mohammed Gnono, who takes part in the military operation. It is worth noting that Garyan was the main springboard for the offensive of the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli, and its loss was a turning point in his march on the Libyan capital. In fact, this could mean the defeat of Khalifa Haftar. Is it so? Does the LNA leader have alternative opportunities for organizing an offensive on Tripoli? What forces does he rely on, who supports him now?
-After Haftar lost Garyan, he made statements against Turkey, accusing this country as the main culprit for his loss of the strategic city. This, of course, will predetermine the further development of the LNA campaign on the Libyan capital. Meanwhile, Turkey’s firm response was that it would retaliate against the forces on the field, General Haftar will definitely not accept this loss he won’t discuss these issues with the government of Al-Sarraj, also due to the fact that he is assisted by foreign armed forces. Consequently, these attacks will constantly occur while the problems will continues.
3) The government of Fayez Al-Sarraj accused France of of playing the double game: officially the French government is supporting the government of Tripoli, but, at the same time, it is trying to flirt with the LNA. What is the reason of such a dual policy of Paris?
– Libyan government chairman Fayez al-Sarraj asked France to help to put an end the attacks and to take part in a “peaceful dialogue.” Although he previously accused France of playing a large role in supporting Haftar, now Al-Sarraj says that in his last meeting with Macron, he received the assurance of his help to stop the attacks. Al-Sarraj is also looking for the support of the European Union. He also expressed its availability to hold a vote in the country and start a dialogue. Emmanuel Macron had the assurance from Al-Sarraj that France will play a key role for the ending of the war. So the French government necessarily negotiates with the forces of Khalifa Haftar to ensure peace, and determine the positions of the parties to the conflict. It seems to me that there is nothing reprehensible in this, since Paris now plays a mediating role, and in accordance of that, it conducts negotiations with all parties in the conflict, regardless of their political views and military objectives.
4) On the night of July 26-27, 2019, the Libyan National Army bombed a number of government facilities located in the city of Misrata. In particular, the attack was made on the Air Force Academy. It is worth noting that Misrata was chosen by Khalifa Haftar as a target not by accident, since the main forces opposing the LNA are concentrated in this city. In addition, Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles are stationed in Misrata, as well as the Italian military base. Does this attack indicate that Khalifa Haftar changed the strategy of his campaign, given that this is the first bombardment undertaken by the Libyan National Army outside the neighborhoods of Tripoli? Does Khalifa Haftar intend to involve Turkey and Italy in direct conflict?
– The actions of the Air Force Khalifa Haftar in Misrat were organized as a counterattack against the Turkish troops and military base. Inside this military base were drones. This, of course, will lead to conflicts and international scandals, with the participation of Turkey and other countries, since such a move LNA really was extremely impudent and arrogant. But this is politics. Also, while the war continues in Libya, conflicts and international scandals are inevitable. But sooner or later war will end and peace will return.
5) On July 23, 2019, a meeting was held in Moscow between members of the Libya’s House of Representatives, from Tripoli,and officials of the Russian Foreign Ministry. During the meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov sharply criticized Khalif Haftar’s military campaign and invited the parties to the Libyan conflict to conclude a political agreement. Does this mean that Moscow, like Washington, turned away from Khalifa Haftar, who only recently visited Russia on an official visit. So is Khalifa Haftar irapidly losing support in the international arena? What conditions the political agreement proposed by Moscow contain? Do the government forces of official Tripoli and the Libyan National Army agree to sit down at the negotiating table with the mediation of Russia as a guarantor of peace?
– Russia’s position is peaceful, in the sense that it supports he Libyan dialogue and it claims that the safety of civilians should be a priority. Russia did not change its point of view on this issue. At the same time, the opinion of Moscow does not coincide with the opinion of the Americans for several reasons. I believe that the United Nations should intervene in this crisis in order to stop it and provide the necessary assistance to the civilians. As for Khalifa Haftar, I do not think that he is rapidly losing allies. He has many friends in the international arena and he is still quite strong. However, certain shifts in relation to the forces of the Libyan field marshal probably will occur. But the international community understands that it is impossible to achieve peace in Libya without involving in the dialogue Khalifa Hafta. So surely they will make arrangements with him. He will be granted with some territorial control and a small influence in the Tripoli government. But for the moment it is all that the international community is willing to guarantee him