Middle Eastern region is haunted by the specter of militancy and crisis since the region witness the wave of Arab Spring in 2011. The revolutionary wave spread across the region and anti – government protests started in many Middle Eastern states and resulted in many political upheavals. This so-called democratic revolution was a beginning of worst humanitarian catastrophe in Syrian Arab Republic.
Syria is a large country of Mediterranean Sea, had population of 22.4 million. The country is passing through political instability since its inception in 1946. The protest began in March 2011 against the President Bashar al Assad, from Daraa and then gradually spread to major cities like Damascus, Al Hasakah and Aleppo. In wake of bloody protest, Bashar Al Assad accepted the resignation of his government, introduced large range of reforms and lift the state of emergency, which was imposed on Syria for 50 years, to subside the revolt.
Bashar al Assad measures and reforms proved futile to satisfy the protestors. He also announces to hold a national referendum to introduce new constitution and open competition for other political parties. The measures were approved by the majority, but it lacked legitimacy due to clashes between demonstrators and regime forces and low turnout. The regime supporters won the elections while the opposition boycotted these elections. He was failed to stop the protest and the activists geared up their opposition against the regime. The protestors saw the end of Assad regime as the only solution to the confronted crisis.
By the end of 2011, Syria enter a deadly civil war, with two factions backed by foreign interventions. Syria under Assad regime conduct unrestrained brutality upon the civilians, caused a massive killing of innocent people.
The military was supporting the President and equipped with advance weapons and artillery. The Syrian opposition is divided, the two main opposition coalition in Syria are the Syrian National Council (dominated by Sunni majority and members from Muslim Brotherhood) and National Coordination Body for Democratic Change (opposition blocs within Syria mostly dissidents and willing to cooperate with Assad’s regime). Then there is Free Syrian Army, comprised of many Sunni soldiers who left army since uprising break out.
To understand the dynamics of the complex war, it is necessary to know the actors involved. It has three level of confrontation, firstly it is an internal battle between regime and opposition; secondly it has become a battle ground to serve the proxies of regional states and movements (like Iran and groups like Hezbollah are fighting against another group of states lead by Saudi Arabia); and then there is an evident competition for global hegemony between Russia and United Sates.
The Sectarian division is also playing a major role to arise the rivalry, besides this many extremist militants have joined both sides, like ISIS, AL Nusra Front and many off shoots from Al Qaeda, making the war intractable to determine who is fighting against whom.
Syrian neighboring states have drawn towards the conflict as prime mover or victim. All have stakes and some interests to fulfil. Syrian war is splitting across the boundaries and affecting the regional states and allies in many ways.
Many outside powers have make their entry on the war theatre of Syria, to serve its own interest. According to Christopher Phillips said, “If you look at the literature on civil war, it tends to suggest that the more foreign powers involved, the more difficult it is for a civil war to end”.
Here USA is supporting the rebels against Assad, certainly super power has some motives and interests to fulfil, like there are ideological motives. USA wants to install pro-Western regime in Syria, because the government in Syria is aligned with Russia and China, which hurts USA global hegemony. USA is supporting one faction by giving training advising and assisting the opposition in form of logistics and intelligence.
Pundits and Western Commentators believe that Russia is supporting Assad regime due to many factors. Firstly, Moscow consider it as a matter of its national pride, then there is an autocratic solidarity between Assad and Putin, many economic interests are also playing role behind Russian support like arms contract, there is an ideological factor too (which compels Russia to contain movements like Arab Spring), both states are also collaborating in nuclear energy cooperation and naval bases. These factors explain why Russia is supporting the brutal regime of Assad. Moscow is giving diplomatic and military support to the Assad regime against rebels.
Tehran is committed to support Syrian ally by aiding regime, ranging from money and arms to IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and through technical expertise. Iran also wants to save the transit route of arms to Hezbollah through Syria. Iran is also acting as a mediator in conflict and offering its services and proposed six points peace plans which suggests the establishment of a transitional government in Syria. Iran is facing a wide criticism due to its continuous support for Assad, even many Shia groups once supporting Iran has now parted their ways. It is said that Iran’s interest will be compromised if Assad regime falls.
Post Saddam Hussain Iraq has gone from strong to a weak state. There is a shift in ethnic-sectarian composition in Iraq and patterns of its relations with Moscow has also changed, in wake of uneasy relationship with Washington. As far as Syrian conflict is concern, Iraq finds itself in a very delicate position and trying to have a balance approach. The foremost concern of Iraq is the possible spillover of conflict, the refugee influx and rise of insurgent groups in the region.
Saudi Arabia’ s strong opposition and condemnation against Assad regime is fueled by many personal and geopolitical motivation. Saudi Arabia wants a new Syria without Iranian influence. Therefore, Riyadh has become a vocal regional actor, supporting revolution, giving financial support to opposition and calling for end of Bashar al Assad regime. Even Saudi Arab has joined the club of 100 countries supporting that National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary as the legitimate representative of Syrian people.
The Syrian crisis has become a major test for Turkey’s regional and domestic policies and hence opted a cautious approach towards the crisis. But when Assad use violence and force against its civilians, Ankara distanced itself from brutal regime, sought to cooperate with west and convincing Iran and Russia to undercut the support to violent regime.
Turkey give shelter to Free Syrian Army and refugee by offering a base of operation. In retaliation Bashar al Assad gave concession to PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) in their campaign against Turkey. The Syrian crisis has affected Turkey in many ways and damage its ‘zero problem with neighbor policy’. Turkey ‘s security concerns have been provoked, thus Ankara ask NATO to protect its territory against PKK and Syrian missiles.
Israel keep itself away to get embroiled in this crisis, as the consequences of the war is a double-edged sword for the Israel. On one hand Israel perceives that Iran-Hezbollah-Syrian alliance is a biggest security threat, while it is also possible that possible demise of Bashar al Assad regime poses risk of transfer of deadly weapons to other anti- Israel hostile actors. Whereas Lebanon is not officially the part of conflict but affected by war spillover effects.
The deadly war has now entered its seventh year; almost every regional and international player has accepted to some degree that Syrian crisis is here to stay and entered a blind end. There is no easy solution to this complex war. It seems that Assad has won this civil war, but it does not mean that peace is achieved. No matter which party win or lose, it is the Syrian people who will pay most of the cost and humanity which is losing.