Based on the recent reports from the battlefield, it seems that the Syrian conflict is heading towards the end. As the things stand, it seems that the Assad government will win the 7 years war against the various militant jihadi rebels and their foreign sponsors.
We have seen the agony and the consequences of the conflict, and now it seems that the focus in Syria is already turning from war, displacement and destruction to reconstruction, reconciliation and peace. However, it important to emphasize that there are several elements that can still cause several conflicts and even larger confrontations.
1. The Iranian Presence and Israel
Ever since the start of the Syrian uprising, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been the main supporter of Assad’s secular government. The presence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah was one of the main elements that prevented the collapse of the Assad Regime. Iran sees the survival of the Syrian government as being crucial to its regional interests.
According to the United Nations envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, the Iranian government spends at least $6 billion annually on maintaining Assad’s government. Moreover, the presence of Hezbollah and the Iranian Militias in Syria was one of the main elements that enabled the Syrian government to hold on to the major centers such as Damascus, Homs Hama and Aleppo.
Nevertheless, the Iranian presence in Syria created a perfect ground for Israel to assert its military and political influence in the region. The increased tensions lead to several Israeli strikes on the Iranian bases in Syria. Also, the Israeli Defense Forces have also hit several Hezbollah headquarters and arms depots causing an unrest in the Iranian lead forces.
Although, the conflict is heading into the final phase, there are several fronts such as Idlib, Latakia, Hama where the fighting can resume. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human rights, there are around 60 000 thousands rebels in the Idlib province. With the latest evacuations after the Dara offensive, the militants from FSA Southern Front were also moved to Idlib thus putting the number of militants even higher. This has the potential for a resumed confrontation which in turn will extend the presence of the Iranian militias in the country. That, in turn, can increase the Israeli strikes and potentially escalate the conflict with the Syrian government as they have often used their Air defence systems in combating the IDF.
Combined with the fact that Israel and Syria and still officially at war and the dispute over the Golan Heights, the potential for further escalation should not be underestimated.
2. Idlib and Turkey
The second notable issue that can create potential problems for the Syrian government is the Idlib province. According to various reports, the Syrian Army is in the process of planning a new offensive targeting Idlib. On the other side, the various jihadi rebel factions are also merging into a united force with the goal of attacking the Syrian Army and its allies. However, this potential scenario it is not just the typical frontline between the warring sides. According to the Astana agreement, the Turkish Army together with the Iranian and the Russian Army are maintaining their presence at the frontlines with the goal to ensure the de-escalation zones. To be more specific, any offence from either side will put the Turkish or the Russian-Iranian soldiers right at the frontline and possibly a target. This can initiate a further escalation and potentially creating a conflict between the guarantors of the Astana agreement. That is why any future Idlib offensive will represent a serious challenge for the Syrian Army.
3. ISIL Presence
While the recent Daraa offensive crushed the remaining ISIL terrorists in the Yarmouk Basin, the jihadists threat is still present in Syria. The recent attack in Suwayda showed that ISIS still has the capability to move its forces through the vast Syrian desert for hit and run attacks. This represents a serious challenge for the overall security as the Syrian Army needs to maintain a large presence in order to combat this problem. Based on the analysis from various military experts, ISIL will aim to switch to guerrilla tactics and sleeper cells operations thus continuing the myth about the caliphate.
4. The Kurdish Issue and the American Policy
Another potential challenge for the Assad government will be the so-called Kurdish issue. On that note, it is important to emphasize that the Syrian Democratic Forces and the YPG control a big part of eastern Syria. Moreover, the Kurdish militias have active military and political support from Washington. Combined with their ultimate quest for an independent country, it seems that this Syrian conflict is their historic opportunity for a Kurdish state.
However, there are some positive signs as the Trump administration has set its sights on potential withdrawal from Syria. This may have a galvanizing effect on the political process as it may get the two parties ( Syrian government and YPG) to reach a compromise over the future constitutional organization of the Syrian state.
Nevertheless, any failure of the talks can put the parties back on the front lines. Also, in this context, it is important to emphasize that although the current American administration aims to pull out of Syria, president Trump can be inconsistent and unpredictable. Moreover, if the conflicts prolong until 2020 and the next U.S elections, it may result in a new administration and a different policy towards the Syrian issue. That is why it is imperative for the Syrian government to resolve to so-called Kurdish issue sooner rather than later.
On a final note, we can conclude that the Syrian conflicts are heading towards the final phases. However, it is important that the international community and the regional players to not underestimate these issues if they want to prevent a prolonged war and a more broad and regional escalation.