By Abdalla Ahmad, Senior Researcher and Advisor in Geopolitical Affairs, Damascus, Syria
In the light of the international relations tension level, the world witnessing a major shifts that could change the shape and balance of the world powers. However, it is not yet clear the real dimensions of these expected changes or outcomes.
Because it depends on the performance of the effective players, and on the final positioning of other actors in favor of these or those, in the intense confrontation between the Western powers dominating the world, especially the United States, on the one hand, and the anti-American countries, which seek to redraw regional and international balances, namely Russia and China.
It is also clear that the level of the political, media, economic and military escalation reached an unprecedented and dangerous level, which reflect the escalation in geopolitical sensitive areas as Syria, that may necessarily increase the risk of conflict and lead to sharp confrontations in the Middle East, and maybe in another unexpected areas including East Asia or even in Central Asia.
The Syrian crisis has opened the doors to the strategic confrontation between great and regional powers. Therefore, the world faces real challenges to cross into a new, multi-polar world system which can restore the world balance, where the transit risk is still high, considering the miscalculations factor which, may lead to the outbreak the conflict to the limits which it cannot be controlled.
Despite the blurring of international relations, nevertheless, the new players are reluctant to take decisive steps towards definitively identifying their geopolitical places, in a way to build up an international alliance capable of curbing US unilateralism in the world. However, the latest indications go towards the forming of a real alliance between Russia and China, and some other regional countries are monitoring the performance of the superpowers in relation the regional and global crises.
United States behavior and policy
Despite the relative decline in US dominance and influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, US military and economic superiority has also been declining as a result of its military failure in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past decade.
This decline is certainly in favor of major powers such as Russia and China, which have accumulated more power. Russia intervened in Syria to fight terrorism and annexed the Crimea. China carried out economic and military measures to defend its interests.
However, the United States remains the dominant country in the world, and continues to use its military and economic power, as well as the influential media arm, to maintain this hegemony
The United States continues to work in accordance with the traditional strategic doctrine to achieve several objectives such as:
- To strengthen the blockade imposed on China and Russia in order to preserve the unilateral American hegemony over the world.
- Control the power transmission lines, to prevent China and Russia from influencing and dominating the Eurasian mainland, especially Central Asia.
- Protection of Israel.
- To weaken countries hostile to its policy.
On the other hand, the United States is aware that the victory of Syria and its allies in this war, may mean the beginning of the transition to the emergence of the multi-polar world system, which will end the American hegemony.
Therefore, the United States is pursuing its policy to spread chaos and prolong the Syrian crisis, either through direct intervention or by complicating the Syrian scene by introducing new players into Syrian east, such as Black water to support the Kurdish separatist forces in that region. The United States also still investing in the crisis with Iran, using it as a tool to achieve long-term strategic goals
Russian behavior and policy
In recent years, Russia has rebuilt its military capabilities and technology to become a military force parallel to the United States. Putin’s political approach and leadership have therefore raised the West’s concern, particularly with regard to the Syrian and Ukrainian crises.
By adopting the Eurasian doctrine to counter globalization and American expansion, Putin succeeded in countering the soft power war against Russia, and the strategic goals of the United States, through which the United States sought to besiege it by sea and land. Russia succeded also in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and in supporting the Syrians, in order to stop the project of regime change. However, the conflict continues, and this explains the Western political performance and levels of military and media madness.
However, Russia faces a real challenge and therefore has to make decisions and actions on the ground in the context of a strategic shift from the partnership concept with the West (Europe and the United States) to the strategic competition concept, without any possibility of retreat. Because partnership is not possible in the light of Western attempts to reduce the power of Russia, and to prevent its pivotal role in the world.
On the other hand, other major countries such as China are closely monitoring Russia’s performance, while refraining from a final and strong stance alongside Russia, fearing a new Russian coup against a supposed partnership in the West again.
However, the enormous tension in international relations could push the Russian ruling elite into a final transformation to a strategic competition, and that’s will necessarily encourage China and other countries to stand with Russia, to end the US hegemony.
The Turkish, Israel, Iranian, Chinese role and strategy in the Syrian crisis
Turkey
Some may argue about the Turkish role in the region and its relationship with Russia or the alliance with the United States, but, in fact, the Turkish position is consistent with the role that was drawn to Turkey as a tool for the United States in the region. Whether in the Caucasus, to confront Russia, or in Syria as a part of the new Middle East project.
Turkey remains an essential part of NATO one of the most important regional players in the Greater Middle East project (Erdogan himself admitted that he was one of the presidents of the Middle East Project). The aim of Turkey is to take possess of new territories in Syria and Iraq (Erdogan has stated that he wants to break free from the Lausanne Agreement of 1922). Turkey is also seeking, in coordination with the United States, to create a new Kurdish reality in Syria (as with the Iraqi Kurdistan), and all the differences with the US that are being promoted, All differences with the states being promoted, are in the context of the exchange of roles,where the so-called Kurdish danger is amplified in order to create a justification for a reality change on the ground .
So Turkey seeks to exploit its alliance with Washington and temporary friendship with Moscow in order to expand and occupy new areas of Syria and Iraq. Therefore the Turkish President Erdogan could push for a limited military escalation in the region in coordination with Washington. But Turkey recognizes also that it does not have the strategic tools to achieve those goals, because the balances is fragile in the region, also the risks are high from other hand. It is worth mentioning that the Saudi and Qatari role is no different from the Turkish role in relation to the Syrian crisis. Despite the Turkish-Saudi rivalry in the region, Washington is the main driver of these countries.
Israel
After the Suez crises in the 1950s, Israel became one of the basic assets of the West in the region and it was a key player in the new Middle East project.
However, the restoration of the Syrian army’s strength worries Israel, so it seeks to extend the Syrian crisis, and try to pass the deal of the century to end everything related to the Palestinian issue, as prelude for an economic dominance in the region.
In fact , Israel is expected to continue its escalation and aggression against Syria in order to extend the Syrian crisis, and to divide the Syrian territory into sectarian entities, also in order to gain more time to achieve its objectives in the region.
China
China has witnessed a major economic and military development in recent years. It has also undergone a major transformation with the Belt and Road Initiative, addressed an “infrastructure gap” and thus has now the potentiality to accelerate economic growth across the Asia Pacific area and Central and Eastern Europe, and to to counter US projects aimed to besiege it.
China has also contributed decisively to counter Western projects in Syria through the use of veto power against US and Western draft resolutions. China has also faced the US escalation in the South China Sea by deploying its naval forces to ensure the safety of sea routes to the Arabian Gulf.
However, China is also aware that confrontation with the United States is inevitable, and this cannot be avoided in the medium and long term, while he United States is using all methods to weaken China, either by penetrating China internally or by changing the play rules in the South China Sea.
Obviously, China sought to strengthen the alliance with Moscow to meet common challenges in order to promote stability, especially in the Middle East, where China’s economic interests and energy sources, And the historical dimension of privileged relations.
Iran
What is happening with Iran may remind us of the Suez crisis of the 1950s, although the players are different in the current crisis. However, the conflict and tension in the Gulf are expected to go on. Also without reaching a direct war between the United States and Iran, it is certain that the Iran’s anti-American and anti-Israeli role will continue.
The Iran position is linked to several factors, the most important of which are: US-China economic war; Russian-Iranian rapprochement; Iran’s support for Syria and the Palestinian cause; Washington sought to deplete the Gulf countries financially, through arms deals and the costs of the US presence
However, it’s hard to see an Iranian retreat or acceptance of the American conditions because its contradicts to the goals and ideology of the Islamic State of Iran.
Opportunities and challenges for Syria
The West was betting on Syria to change its geopolitical position to a pro-Western position under US control. Therefore, Syria fought a complex war against Western-backed groups and it managed to survive in the early years of the conflict. It took the initiative and turned into a counter-attack with the help of its Russian, Chinese and Iranian allies, that’s changed the map of the conflict in Syria and in the region.
Anyhow the war is bigger than Syria, where Syria has become the arena for regional and international conflict, and the future challenges facing Syria and the region require action on several political and military fronts to crystallize a new geopolitical doctrine.
It is clear that the war on Syria continues, because the regional stability and the international settlements involving the region and the world, are not yet mature.
In the end, the current alliances and positions of the countries involved in the conflict in Syria and the region are not expected to change, nor the regional understandings or compromises to ensure regional stability in the near future is likely to happen. .
Therefore, the clearest remaining option for Syria and its allies is to use the force to liberate the remaining occupied Syrian territory, which in turn may carry risks of confrontation with the United States, Turkey and Israel.
In any case, the Syrian state has begun to regain its strength and is able to face these challenges. After all, there is a real chance for Syria and its allies to win the war, and push the world to change, The world is betting on Russian and Chinese performance, where the next decade will whiteness a geopolitical and strategic development that can transform the current landscape into a multi-polar world system. For sure, this is a unique opportunity, which was unprecedented in the past.
Image Credit: Khaled Al-Hariri/Reuters
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy and views of World Geostrategic Insights).