By Denis Korkodinov – Interview with Abbas Mohammad Saleh
Sudan intends to significantly reduce its military contingent in Yemen. However, the complete withdrawal of Sudanese troops is premature. At least, according to the statement of the deputy head of the country’s Sovereign Council, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, Khartoum will leave a small number of troops in Yemen to maintain order and repel attacks from the Ansar Allah movement. At the same time, the exact number of Sudanese military personnel who will remain in Yemen is not known, but experts call the figure of 4,000 Sudanese military personnel.
Experts note that the reduction of the Sudanese group of forces in Yemen is the result of agreements between the country’s transitional government and the opposition. In particular, in September 2019, a rumor was actively discussed in the international community that Khartoum could significantly reduce its military presence in the Yemeni theater of operations. In any case, the press secretary of the Sudanese Professional Association, El Rashid Said, has publicly called for the new government to make efforts to end the war in Yemen and return the Sudanese troops home.
Nevertheless, a sharp foreign policy reversal towards a way out of the Yemeni conflict could significantly ruin Sudan’s financial situation. Thus, it is likely that the new pedestrian government of the country will most likely have to return the $ 2.22 billion contributed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to the central bank of Sudan under the guarantee of the participation of Sudanese military personnel in Yemen on the side of the international Arab coalition. In addition, Sudan risks spoiling relations with three major shareholders – Islamic banks in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. For this reason, Khartoum may be in a deep economic crisis.
Speaking about this, Abbas Mohammad Saleh, a Sudanese researcher and analyst on African affairs, specifically for World Geostrategic Insights, noted that a statement by the vice president of the transitional council regarding the withdrawal of
Sudanese forces from Yemen may be the result of a preliminary agreement between the forces of the Arab coalition in Yemen and by the “fast support forces” as the largest component of the Sudanese forces, and not by the unilateral decision of the Sudanese party to designate the existing government.
According to Mr. Saleh, the implementation of the decision to withdraw the Sudanese forces from Yemen is an exclusively political and not a military decision, since from a military point of view, these forces can be withdrawn in a short time or in stages.
The consequences of the withdrawal of the Sudanese forces will be significant since they are ground forces, and after the withdrawal of these forces it is expected that the Huti militias in the border areas of Saudi Arabia will continue to strike.
Although there is no evidence or details about the withdrawal of Sudanese military forces in Yemen, the Sudanese political expert suggests that this will not be a complete withdrawal of these forces. Units, including at least the territory of Saudi Arabia, are likely to be maintained to ensure the security of the border with Yemen.
Moreover, as Abbas Mohammed Saleh told us, there was no clear vision of the importance of Sudan’s participation in the Arab coalition, which could justify the presence or preservation of the Sudanese armed forces there for such a long time, especially after the Arab coalition deviated from its goals, announced before its launch, especially to support the legitimacy and restoration of the sovereignty of the Yemeni state, and has become part of the Yemeni crisis today.