By: Dr. Mohammad Salami
New developments have taken place in the region over the past year for Saudi Arabia, which has forced Saudi leaders to change their foreign policy and react to new developments. Syria and its external and internal situation is one of these developments that has changed the view of Saudi politicians towards Bashar al-Assad and his political situation.
Secret travel Major General Khaled Al-Hamidan, Saudi intelligence chief to Damascus on May 4, and his meeting with his Syrian counterpart in the first public meeting of its kind between Saudi Arabia and Syria since the outbreak of the Syrian war a decade ago. Following the meeting, Syrian Tourism Minister Mohammed Rami Martini attended a tourism conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh on 26 May 2021.
Saudi Arabia ready for reconciliation
Experts recognize the two trips as a prelude to reconciliation between the two countries and a kind of revision of Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)’s behavior for Bashar al-Assad. Earlier, MBS said in an interview in March 2018, “Bashar is staying, but I believe that Bashar’s interests are not to let the Iranians do whatever they want they want to do.” MBS realized that with the presence of Russia in Syria, the possibility of removing Bashar al-Assad is unlikely, so he tried various tricks to bring Bashar closer to his coalition. Like MBS suggested to Bashar al-Assad that Riyadh spend huge sums of money on reconstruction Syria if relations with Iran were severed.
Ever since Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, MBS has realized that he must change his foreign policy in the region. These changes began at the beginning of the year with the lifting of sanctions by Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries with Qatar. Riyadh has been embroiled in the Yemen war for six years and is under public opinion pressure to end the war, so in March 2021 it proposed a peace deal with the Yemeni Houthis. Saudi Arabia did the same with Turkey. In less than a month, King Salman talked by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan twice to ease tensions between the two countries.
Reasons for change
MBS has goals and reasons for changing his view of Syria, which has led him to abandon his decision to remove Bashar al-Assad and move forward to reconcile with Syria. MBS’s first goal is to resolve the Yemen case. Syria is the original position of the axis of resistance. Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime have formed the axis of resistance in the region, and it is possible that the Houthis will enter the axis of resistance and form the fourth pillar of this axis. Saudi Arabia has been negotiating with Iran for some time through the mediation of the Iraqi Prime Minister, and Yemen has been the focus of negotiations between the two countries.
Saudi Arabia seeks a dignified exit from Yemen and seeks to use Iran’s capacity to resolve the Yemeni case, so it is trying to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad’s regime to satisfy the axis of resistance. Of course, Saudi Arabia has a contradictory goal of reconciling with Bashar al-Assad regarding Iran. In other words, Saudi Arabia, in addition to trying to use the capacity of Syria and Iran to resolve the Yemeni case, On the other hand, is trying to prevent Syria from being completely under Iranian control with the possibility of defeating Bashar al-Assad’s opponents.
The second reason for Saudi reconciliation with Syria lies in the change in the US view of Saudi Arabia. Biden is reluctant to pursue Trump’s conciliatory policies with the monarchy and seeks to change Saudi behavior in the region. Biden has forced Saudi Arabia to end the war in Yemen and called on Saudi Arabia to improve the human rights situation in the country. Biden’s anti-Saudi policies have forced Saudi Arabia to make changes to its foreign policy, such as lifting sanctions on Qatar, negotiating with Iran, Turkey and reconciling with Bashar al-Assad. In this way, Saudi Arabia wants to both satisfy the United States and strike a balance with the United States. MBS has found that revising foreign policy is easier and less costly than domestic reform to improve human rights.
The third reason is that Saudi Arabia is not falling behind in the line of reconciliation between the Arab countries and Bashar al-Assad. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain reopened their embassies in Damascus in December 2018. Oman was the first country to return its ambassador to Damascus on October 4, 2020. Iraq, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt agree to Syria’s return to the Arab League. With the election of Bashar al-Assad in the presidential election on May 26, Arab countries are increasingly calling for reconciliation with Syria and for Syria to return to the Arab League.
Saudi Arabia also does not want to lag behind the Arab reconciliation match with Bashar al-Assad. Saudi Arabia is slower to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad than the UAE because most of the UAE’s population is non-Arab and it is not under public opinion pressure but Saudi Arabia must satisfy the public opinion of its citizens, given the negative atmosphere against Bashar al-Assad and his portrayal as a dictator and murderer of the Syrian people in the Saudi media, and this will take time.
Lebanon is another reason for Saudi Arabia to reconcile with Syria. Lebanon is facing economic crisis, and Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia are pursuing their own interests in this country. Saudi Arabia has lost the power struggle in Lebanon to Hezbollah and Iran. Saudi Arabia is well aware of this and is trying to reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon through Syria.
Historically there has been an assertion in Damascus that Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of its interests in Lebanon will always be futile as long as it refuses to cooperate and work with Syria. For Riyadh, it appears that Syria’s interests in Lebanon are not entirely in alignment with Iran. This margin of difference may well be seen as enough for Saudi policymakers to strengthen bilateral ties with Damascus, with a view to at least consider a concerted effort to rebalance the Lebanese political scene in their favor.
Biography of the author: Mohammad Salami holds a Ph.D. in International Relations. He writes as an analyst and columnist in various media outlets. His area of expertise is Middle East issues, including the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia.
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