The Moscow and Berlin Conference on Libya demonstrated a sharply increased interest of the international community in the Libyan civil war. This interest was due to at least two reasons. First of all, this concerns the participation of Turkey, which spoke on the side of the Government of National Consent. In addition, another “march on Tripoli” announced by the commander of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, has attracted the attention of regional players (Russia, France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates) trying to prevent the conflict from escalating. However, to date, no side of the international community has a clear understanding of how to solve the Libyan problem. Meanwhile, the conflict in Libya continues to gain momentum, with the result that there is a risk of clashes not only between the forces of Khalifa Haftar and Fayez al-Sarraj, but also between Russia and Turkey.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, Denis Korkodinov talked about this with a Libyan politician, member of the Libyan Popular Resistance Movement Abdul Hamid al-Katroni.
1. On February 5, 2020, the representative of the Al-Vefak Government Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Muhammad Abdul Hadi al-Qiblawi, in an interview with Turkish correspondents officially announced that Tripoli would seek criminal prosecution of the United Arab Emirates for allegedly “hampering the formation of democratic and civilian routes in Libya “and pursue the goal of” control the Syrian sea routes. ” However, in fact, such a statement was caused solely by the fact that the United Arab Emirates supported the Libyan National Army. Based on this, the statement of Muhammad Abdul Hadi al-Qiblawi was addressed not only to the United Arab Emirate, but also to Russia. Does this mean that Tripoli will insist on the criminal prosecution of Russia for helping the forces of the Libyan National Army? How promising is the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Al-Vefak Government on the creation of an international court for Libya?
ABDUL KHAMID AL-KATRONI: It is worth noting that Fayez al-Sarraj initially aims to limit the role of international mediators in the process of resolving the Libyan crisis. In other words, the Al-Vefak government does not show interest in resolving the conflict in the near future. For this reason, the allegations made by Muhammad Abdul Hadi al-Qiblawi, a spokesman for the Al-Vefak Government’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, against the United Arab Emirates should be considered solely in the context of official Tripoli’s resistance to peace in Libya.
Abu Dhabi is currently a leading regional player who has a great influence in the Libyan theater of operations. At the same time, the emirates in their policies proceed from humanitarian considerations, ensuring a balance of forces between the Libyan National Army and the Al-Vefak government in order to avoid further bloodshed. However, Abu Dhabi would not have been concerned if Turkey had not stood on the side of Fayez al-Sarraj. Turkish support clearly violates the process of political settlement of the conflict in Libya, which necessitated the active intervention of the United Arab Emirates, which are trying to restore order in the country.
Russia is pursuing the same goal by providing assistance to the Libyan people and promoting the advance of peace in Libya. However, Tripoli cannot openly criticize Moscow, as this can lead to a complication in the negotiation process. Moreover, Fayez al-Sarraj, to a certain extent, is afraid of the reaction of Russia, and therefore tries not to provoke her with loud accusations.
The Government of National Accord can do nothing against the United Arab Emirates and Russia, since it has no leverage on these countries. As for the statement of Muhammad Abdul Hadi al-Qiblawi, they are a manifestation of banal populism and are designed exclusively for the Turkish audience in order to show Ankara their willingness to cooperate with it.
The International Court of Libya will certainly be organized in the foreseeable future. This is a promising project that has a large number of supporters. The organization of judicial proceedings will solve many of the problems that exist in Libyan society and the state, and restore justice. However, Fayez al-Sarraj and his entourage will most likely end up in the dock. If this happens, it will serve as a vivid demonstration that the war in Libya is over.
During the last week, several senior delegations visited Benghazi on an official visit to discuss the peace plan for Libya. So, on February 5, 2020, the foreign ministers of Algeria and Germany Sabri Bukadum and Heiko Maas arrived in Benghazi, and on February 6, a government delegation from the UK. In addition, a series in the near future is scheduled in Benghazi.
ABDUL KHAMID AL-KATRONI: The Libyan National Army is unlikely to succumb to international pressure, as it is determined to enter the capital and thereby abolish the Government of National Accord. Therefore, persuasion from Germany, Great Britain, Algeria or other regional players aimed at refusing to march on Tripoli will not have any effect on the command of the Libyan National Army. No country can prevent the forces of Khalifa Haftar from entering Tripoli.
The Libyan National Army strictly adhered to the developed conflict resolution plan. One of the points of this plan is the motivation of the Tripoli and Misrata militias to transfer weapons to the forces of Khalifa Haftar. In addition, the Government of National Accord must officially acknowledge its defeat, transfer all military facilities located in Tripoli to the Libyan National Army. And until this happens, we consider ourselves entitled to achieve victory.
Khalifa Haftar rejected the conditions proposed to him at the end of the Moscow and Berlin conferences, because they do not take into account the main aspect of the Libyan conflict – the interests of the Libyan people. These interests are simple – the fight against terrorism, respect for the territorial integrity of Libya and the restoration of peaceful life. Nevertheless, the international community is trying to impose its own draft political solution, which is completely unsuitable for us.
2. Recently, the head of the information committee of the military operation “Volcano of Wrath” Jalal Gabe stated that he intends to violate the truce in Libya and launch an attack on the position of the Libyan National Army. This was not the first statement by Al-Vefak government officials about their intention to violate the ceasefire. In particular, on January 26, 2020, Muhammad Kanunu, speaking on behalf of the Government of the National Accord, announced his readiness to intensify hostilities and attack the Libyan army. He also said that he was ready to give an order to the militants to launch an attack in all directions. Does this indicate that the Al-Vefak government is not interested in a ceasefire in Libya? Can the international community force the Government of National Accord to abandon plans to attack the positions of the Libyan National Army?
ABDUL KHAMID AL-KATRONI: As I said earlier, the Al-Vefak government is not interested in a ceasefire. Otherwise, it would not have attracted Turkey to create additional centers of tension. In addition, Fayez al-Sarrad does not control all armed groups concentrated in Tripoli. These militants are conducting chaotic military operations and are not subordinate to anyone, which makes the ceasefire process almost impossible.
In turn, the international community, unfortunately, has few levers of influence on the Government of National Consent. Because of this, regional players can only recommend a truce, but they are not able to oblige to do so.
Now Russia is trying to solve the problem of taking the parties to the conflict to a distance that excludes a direct clash between them. However, a huge obstacle to Russian efforts is the reluctance of the Al-Vefak government to comply with peace provisions.
3. In a recent interview with CBC, the American journalist Lindsay Snell, specializing in the conflict in Libya, said that Turkey is ready to release more than 5,000 ISIS fighters from Libyan prisons for further use against the Libyan National Army? Is it really? In the case of the release of 5000 ISIS militants detained in Libya, will this lead to a sharp surge in terrorist activity in the Middle East? Which prisons in Libya contain the largest number of ISIS fighters?
ABDUL KHAMID AL-KATRONI: Yes, Turkey is putting pressure on the Al-Vefak government, demanding the release of ISIS fighters from Libyan prisons. And Fayez al-Sarraj is completely dependent on Ankara, and therefore, he is not able to resist the desires of the Turks.
Meanwhile, the release of ISIS militants is a huge regional issue, as this will lead to a stronger Islamic State. It will be very difficult to organize work to eliminate the threat of international terrorism, especially after Turkey actually freed jihadists from criminal punishment for crimes committed. In addition, ISIS militants, if released from Libyan prisons, may move to other countries, to Syria and Iraq, where the risk of terrorist attacks will also increase. This is very serious and requires the attention of the entire international community, which should make Recep Erdogan abandon the plan to free the supporters of the Islamic State.
Currently, the largest number of followers of the terrorist organization is concentrated in Misrata prisons and the central prison of Mutayka. It is worth noting that it is in the vicinity of these prisons that the shock forces of pro-Turkish armed groups are concentrated, which, upon conditional signal, should ensure the release of detained ISIS supporters.
4. As a result of the Berlin Conference, Turkey accused France of seeking to control the natural resources of Libya, providing unconditional support to Khalifa Hifter, and emphasized that the continuation of his attacks because of this support is the biggest threat to the integrity and sovereignty of Libya. In response, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Turkey of violating his commitments made at the Berlin Conference on Libya by transporting Turkish warships from Syria to support the Al-Vefak government. In addition, Recep Erdogan sharply criticized Russia, accusing her of not contributing to the ceasefire in Libya. In this regard, can disagreements between Turkey, France and Russia lead to an escalation of the conflict in Libya? How likely is it that Turkey and Russia can enter into an open military conflict in Libya?
ABDUL KHAMID AL-KATRONI: In order to resolve the Libyan crisis, the international community must be united and strive to achieve peace in Libya, despite the existing differences. Nevertheless, the contradictions between Turkey, Russia and France significantly complicate the negotiation process and nullify all previous agreements.
Ankara has repeatedly violated the international arms embargo on Libya. It is Turkey that is currently demonstrating militancy towards the Libyan National Army and those countries that seek to ensure order and prosperity in Libya. This is the main reason for the escalation of the conflict.
Sooner or later, the differences between Ankara and Moscow will develop into an open confrontation. But before this can happen, Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are likely to seriously quarrel in Syria over Idlib. This will allow Ankara to feel completely free from obligations to the Russian leadership. And then the Russian-Turkish conflict will become a reality in Libya. However, I am not saying that this is inevitable. I just want to say that this is likely.