By Denis Korkodinov
The COVID-19 pandemic can significantly change the geopolitical map of the world. Old ties between states have been destroyed, and the power national institutions turned into non-viable structures as a result of quarantine measures and resulting social unrest.
The coronavirus has caused big damages to the countries of the “Third World”. New problems, related to overcoming the negative consequences of the pandemic, have been added to the usual problems of hunger and total poverty. Such a scenario could lead to an escalation of internal conflicts between discriminated social groups and representatives of the ruling elite. A convincing example of this is the situation in South Sudan, where, due to social inequality, exacerbated by the pandemic, there is a risk of a coup d’etat.
On April 28, 2020, a meeting of the working group on the elimination of the consequences of coronavirus was held in South Sudan. According to a statement by Vice-President Rijek Mashar, Chairman of the Group, 34 COVID-19 carriers were registered at that time in South Sudan.
As a result of this, the head of state, Salva Kiir, decided to impose strict quarantine, in connection with which all trading floors, with the exception of grocery stores, as well as places of mass recreation, were subject to closure. In addition, a curfew was imposed in the country from 7 a.m. to 6 a.m.
Shortly before the adoption of these measures, on the initiative of the South Sudanese leadership, a ban on public events, as well as on international aviation and rail services, was established. Meanwhile, on May 12, 2020, 174 cases of coronavirus infection were detected in the country. However, against this background, the head of state announced a relaxation of quarantine. In particular, the curfew was postponed from 7 o’clock until 10 o’clock in the evening and it was allowed to open trading places, restaurants.
As a result, experts predict that by June 1, 2020, the number of COVID-19 carriers in countries may exceed 100 thousand people. And based on the fact that, in addition to coronavirus, hepatitis, malaria and other viruses that are characteristic of the African continent are widespread in South Sudan, one can expect a sharp increase in the number of deaths mainly among young people, who make up the majority in South Sudan.
Unlike China and the countries of Europe, which were able to localize the foci of infection, South Sudan currently cannot follow the same scenario, since coronavirus has spread rapidly throughout the country. In addition, due to the partial lifting of the restrictions, the current authorities failed to contain the pandemic, which led to an increase in the number of diseases exponentially.
The main difficulty is that the transitional government does not have the resources to introduce long-term quarantine, since the leadership of South Sudan still conflicts with many tribal leaders who decide for themselves whether they need quarantine or not.
Also, the country lacks a sufficient number of regulatory authorities capable of carefully monitoring that people strictly observe the quarantine regime. For this reason, the restrictive measures introduced by the government to contain the coronavirus are extremely ineffective and can only be targeted at lumpenized social groups that are controlled by official Juba.
However, such social groups are a minority in South Sudan, while most local tribes do not submit to central authority and do not comply with quarantine. This state of affairs has increased the likelihood of a conflict between the opposition and the country’s leadership.
South Sudan’s health care system is in disastrous condition. So, in a country with a population of more than 11 million people, at the moment there are only 4 mechanical ventilation devices. UN assistance to modernize the state’s medical infrastructure does not bring positive results, since all hospitals in South Sudan are primarily involved in the treatment of the local elite, while the poor, as a rule, do not receive even minimal medical services.
Thus, among ordinary citizens, the point of view that quarantine is necessary, first of all, in order to protect the political elite from the coronavirus at a time when the poor are massively dying, without waiting for any help, is becoming quite popular. Moreover, the distribution of medical services revealed great inequality in a country where many citizens were at risk of extinction.
This has given many South Sudanese experts reason to believe that under the quarantine screen the transitional government is carrying out the genocide of its own people. Particular irritation of ordinary citizens caused the behavior of representatives of the national elite in a pandemic.
So, according to eyewitnesses, senior military personnel, diplomats and officials of South Sudan ignore the norms of social distance that are binding on everyone, bans on holding mass events and organizing entertainment events. An example of this is the criminal case of Pastor Abraham Chol, who was arrested by local law enforcement agencies for holding a meeting of believers.
According to sources, during the trial of the pastor, judges, police officers and military personnel themselves did not observe social distance and were without masks. Another example is the story of the former chief administrator of Greater Pibor Administrative District, David Yau Yau, who flew on a private plane to the capital of South Sudan on April 26, 2020, despite the ban on air traffic between cities. For this reason, ordinary citizens consider the rich to be the main carriers of the coronavirus.
Therefore, social discontent in South Sudan may soon move to the street, in connection with which many experts predict a coup attempt.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: WHOSOuthSudan