By Saamia Jahangir
In 21st century, power is rooted in a strategically computed territorial gain. South China Sea is an epitome of this conception. Officially, the foreign policy of China is based on the “Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence”. But over the years, Chinese political preferences have evolved side by side with the evolution of China’s emerging dominance in global geo-economic realm.
Despite believing in mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence, the Beijing’s interests, vested in South China Sea, allows it to deviate from its principles.
South China Sea is a 3.5 million square kilometer busiest shipping route with $5 trillion worth of trade annually. Billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas reserves are believed to be lying beneath the ocean bed. Geopolitical analyst suggests that it can prompt the next big war.
A continued tussle to claim its authority has spurred an unprecedented tension in the region. Regional states like Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and Vietnam continue to demand their right based on the provisions of international law of 12 nautical miles.
Although China, Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan occupied some lands and built military bases on them, China continues to emerge as the rising hegemonic of the region. The dredged-up 3000 acres artificial islands are becoming strong military bases that house anti-missile weaponry, military aircraft runways, structures to accommodate long-range missile launchers and port facilities capable of accommodating nuclear submarines.
That’s a huge military footprint, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s nominal 2015 pledge not to militarize the islands and the Foreign Ministry’s claims that these “necessary defense facilities” are provided primarily for maritime safety and natural disaster support. China stands firm on its nine-dash line claim as Xi Jinping said that “We cannot lose even one inch of territory”. For the last decade, the China-U.S. struggle in the South China Sea has been a case of “cold confrontation”.
A Japanese analyst said, “Whoever controls the South China Sea will be the regional hegemonic”. The friction between the two countries is essentially a struggle for comparative advantage and dominance in the regional order.
The U.S. interests have three dimensions. The first is the fundamental interest in freedom of navigation, including unrestricted access to the South China Sea for U.S. military vessels and aircraft. The second is maintaining the overwhelming superiority of U.S. military power and the credible capability of strategic deterrence through sea control and power projection to prevent military conflict and political coercion. The third dimension is building a “rules-based regional order” dominated by the United States.
On the other hand, China’s interests in the South China Sea can be divided into four levels. On the first level, the territorial sovereignty of the South China Sea islands and the derived territorial seas, exclusive economic zones, as well as other rights formed in the course of history, are China’s fundamental interests in the South China Sea. Second, given the South China Sea’s role as a natural “maritime moat,” both the islands and the water-air space play a vital role in China’s national security strategy. Third, the South China Sea is crucially relevant to China’s domestic economic growth, especially since China is world’s largest commodity exporter and oil importer, of which more than 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, are transported through the South China Sea. For the fourth level, it is also in China’s interests to formulate rules to constrain the behaviors of all parties, and establish a sustainable and stable development environment for the surrounding areas.
The fundamental conflict in the South China Sea lies in the inconsistent American pursuit to dominate regional order and the growing strength of China. Specifically, the United States intends to maintain its overwhelming advantage as a leading power in the South China Sea so as to serve as a “defender” of the existing order, while in China’s view, the underlying goal is to “contain” the expansion of Chinese influence. China’s land reclamation, to a large extent, aims to deter the possibility of any new illegal island occupation and violation of China’s claimed maritime rights; from the perspective of America, meanwhile, China is engaging in “militarization” and intends to define a sphere of influence and ultimately control the South China Sea.
This is straining the relations between China, US and its allies. America’s “Freedom of Navigation” exercises have sent a clear message to Beijing that Washington is all set to challenge its rising influence in the region.
With threats being exchanged, jets being flown and warships sailing, the confrontation between both the nations persists to destabilize the region. The economic strength of China allows it to manipulate the smaller nations yet Washington is Beijing’s only main concern in the region. US credit its maritime movement as a right given to it by the international law. Since 2017, the surge of US navigation has increased.
As the country grows in its influence in the Pacific, its defense strategy lists China as one of its “strategic competitors”. Ignoring China’s claims of sovereignty of the islands and reefs, US Navy continuously crosses 7 ½ miles to defy China. Although, the largest military force of China with 3 million service member is growing fast, it has no field experience. The real world experience of US could prove beneficial for them in case of confrontation. Further, in order to keep a stern stance, America continues to practice its island seizing drills and others with its allies. China in return blames America for disturbing the regional peace and challenging the sovereignty of China. It cautions US; still the grave situation finds itself in trade fronts too leading to tariffs, eventually derailing the economy.
Since, both the nations are nuclear powers with highly trained armed forces, increased tensions can cause serious derailment of peace. Considering the age of electronic warfare, a nuclear adventure will be disastrous. This region is a sensitive case especially when international law is a toothless tiger in front of global powers. A multilateral conduct is the need of the hour that will prevent any misadventures. The world is already going through a lot right now and it only needs healing rather than any continued blows.
Author: Saamia Jahangir
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AP