Migration has played an important role in the process of shaping the European continent as we know it today. And although, there is a number of reasons for which people emigrate to Europe, the arrival of large numbers of migrants can create certain challenges for every state on the old continent. One notable issue on which the mass migration can have a significant impact is the national security.
As we have seen in recent years, not just the destination countries but also transit countries can be affected, which makes the problem even more complex. About 2 million of migrants have arrived in Europe since 2014, more than 1 million of them in 2015 alone, and this large influx created various issues and challenges for many of the European countries. We will analyze some of the security threats that the mass arrival of migrants can cause in Europe.
1.Radicalization
The first element that can have a significant impact on the national security among the European countries is the ever-increasing radicalization among the migrants. On that note, it is important to emphasize that many of the migrants are coming from the middle east, a region dominated by instability and conflicts based on political and sectarian divisions. Moreover, they are relatively young and relatively vulnerable to the ever-increasing militant groups in the middle east. It is an undeniable fact that 80% of migrants are men aged between 18 and 50, who are fit for military service so there is a high chance that among them there might be some terrorists or members of armed groups.
Through this massive influx of people, the European security service agencies do not have information about the background of the asylum seekers as many of them arrived undocumented. It is presumed that at least 3,000 jihadists have reached Europe among groups of migrants, and 50 terrorists and former members of militant groups have already been located in various EU countries. This can potentially have a very negative impact on the overall security in the major European centres as the number of so-called “ lone wolf” attacks are on the rise since 2015. Even without going into the number of recent attacks across Europe, it is more than clear that the radicalization represents one of the major problems for the national security of certain European countries.
2.Domestic Population Views
The second notable argument can be seen through the prism of the domestic views and the attitude of the local population in this crisis. In this regard, we need to explore the issue from the cultural perspective. To be more specific, the majority of the migrants are originating from countries that have totally different culture compared to most European states. The cultural, religious and lifestyle differences can have a great impact on generating conflicts between the local population and the newly arrived migrants. These differences with time, tend to generate a high level of segregation and isolation.
Furthermore, these two elements can result in a potential failure in the process of integration of the migrants which can be another reason for an internal destabilization of certain states. Also, the increased number of attacks committed by migrants have to lead to an increased mistrust of the local population and rejection. This can be seen through the numerous attacks on migrant camps during the 2015 and 2016 influx of refugees. And although, this problem may not be seen as big by many, the potential for a serious disruption of the economic, religious and cultural cohesion on the European continent is something that cannot be underestimated.
3. Relations between the European countries.
The EU project of open borders and the Schengen zone have had a galvanizing effect on removing the historical and political barriers among the European nations. Moreover, the free movement and the no borders policy resulted with a broad spectrum of benefits for every European country.nHowever, the migrant crisis showed that is not all red roses in the EU. The massive influx of people resulted in several political disagreements among the members of the block.
The failure to agree one united European policy about how to resolve this issue has created numerous political and security challenges in the Union. To be more specific, many states have turned on their own national policies in order to solve the problem. The instruction of border checks, fences, walls and pushing the migrants to the next state has created a certain level of mistrust between the European governments thus lowering the security cooperation between some countries. This dysfunctional policy (or lack of united policy) is closely related with the 1st issue in this analysis. It allowed a free movement of migrant masses in which some of them had certain ties with militant groups and radicalized ideological organizations. The deep division about the issue is another element that has a negative impact on the block’s internal and external security.
On the other side, if we look at the issue through the prism of geopolitics, these disagreements created another set of challenges for the EU. The differences among members such as Germany and countries like Hungary, Poland and Austria resulted with portraying an image of the block as not being a united force on the global geopolitical scene. Also fueled by the recent Brexit and the lack of support for countries that are the entry points for the migrants (Greece, Italy, Spain), the EU has shown its weakness. This will have a negative impact on the EU role on the global scene and in the process of asserting its interests, most notably in dealing with Erdogan’s Turkey and resurgent Russia. Also, the lack of cooperation and disagreements among the European states will also have a negative impact on their national security as the cooperation among the EU members is significantly decreased.
Conclusion
On a final note, we can conclude that the migrant crisis really tested the unity of the European Union. And, while the block did not pass its first test, it is crucial to agree on a certain framework of steps that will lead to the creation of a united European security policy for this complex issue. With another, migrant crisis looming, the European states need to act now, if they want to protect the national security of the block and its geopolitical interests.