Word Geostrategic Insights interviews Tatiana Pokrovskaia on the significance of Russia’s turnaround in Asia, the prospects for Russian economic cooperation with China, India, and North Korea, and whether Russia can currently be considered a European or Asian power, or how it might best be defined.
Tatiana Pokrovskaia is an international business development professional with more than 20 years of experience in the markets of Africa, CIS, Asia and the Middle East, repeatedly bringing Russian companies into international markets. She is based in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Q1 – Russia, divided between two continents, has historically often focused on its European part, neglecting its Asian side. Today, however, it is Asia that Russia is turning to as a priority. In 2015, at the first Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented a policy of “accelerated” development of Russia’s Far East and a “strengthening of relations” with Asia-Pacific countries, as a Russian response to Asia’s growing economic power. Indeed, for over a decade, the Russian government has been pursuing a policy of economic and diplomatic diversification towards the Asian continent, both to benefit from the economic dynamism of China and other Asian countries, and to reduce its dependence on Europe. Following the collapse of Moscow’s relations with Europe and the United States, from February 2022 onwards, Russia appears to have completely made a pivot towards Asia. The Russian foreign policy concept for 2023 emphasizes the importance of Moscow’s relations with the South as a whole, and with the Asia-Pacific region in particular. President Vladimir Putin’s series of visits to Asia and the agreements signed with China, North Korea, Vietnam and India in May-July 2024 represent a strategic intensification of Russia’s pivot to the East, and can be seen both as aimed at diversifying Russia’s alliances, to reduce its dependence on increasingly hostile Western partners, and as a proactive effort by Russia to secure and extend its influence in a dynamic and strategically crucial region. What’s your opinion? What is the significance and outlook of Russia’s turn in Asia?
A1 – The territory of the Russian state lies between the West and the East. It is natural for any state to pay more attention to the region from which a threat to its fundamental interests and values comes. That is why, for more than 500 years, relations with the West have occupied a central place in Russia’s foreign policy. The administrative and industrial centers are located in the western part of Russia. The eastern direction has never posed a fundamental threat to Russia.
Asia has been less important than the West, but also than the South, in Russian foreign policy. This is partly because the southern direction is associated with the multinational and multiconfessional structure of the Russian Federation.
Russia is very careful about the distribution of its capabilities and forces, and the protection of its multinational territories and populations has historically come first. Consequently, a real concentration of forces in the eastward direction has been prevented by the absence of serious threats to national security from the east, unlike the western direction.
The current policy of turning eastward was conceived in the second half of the 2000s as an economic response to the rise of Asia, which opened up new development opportunities for the country, especially for its eastern part. After all, a large territory of Russia lies in the eastern part – Ular, Siberia, the Far East.
The opportunity to turn to the East is also dictated by the forecast of an inevitable slowdown in the development of the Western economy, as well as complicated relations with Europe and the West as a whole. The diversification of economic ties and external sources of development is thus becoming increasingly evident.
Q2 – Strengthening cooperation with China is at the heart of Russia’s strategy towards Asia. The two countries agree on most major geopolitical issues. In his exchange of New Year greetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Xi praised the mutual trust and strategic coordination between the two countries, and expressed his wish to maintain close ties with Mr. Putin. On the economic front, however, relations between the two countries still seem asymmetrical; the balance of trade is in China’s favor, with exports of high value-added goods, while Russia exports mainly raw materials. What is your opinion about the prospects for economic cooperation between China and Russia?
A2 – Russia and China are completely different state entities. However, they have much in common. First, an intolerance of outside interference. Both are characterized by a spirit of team management, which goes back to ancient times.
At present, China is actually Russia’s largest energy consumer, which also imports agricultural and fish products in large quantities. Recently, Chinese investment in Russia has been on a general upward trend, and there has been an expansion of investment sectors. The jointly established Russian-Chinese Investment Fund is mainly for projects in energy, transportation infrastructure, logistics and agriculture. As the implementation of the “Turn to the East” strategy accelerates, Chinese companies are steadily investing in the Russian Far East. Chinese investments also contribute to the accelerated development of Siberia. In the free port of Vladivostok, the Chinese side is participating in 49 projects with a total value of 812 billion rubles.
According to the 2024 results, the trade turnover between China and Russia amounts to $244 billion. The leaders of the two countries stressed the need to continue cooperation on multiple fronts until 2030. Areas such as tourism, security, investment, sports, logistics, space industry and many others were discussed and secured at a high official level for the next 6 years.
Q3 – Moscow has traditionally maintained close ties with India, balancing its ties with both New Delhi and Beijing. Economically, what are the prospects for cooperation between Russia and India?
A3 – The idea of creating a “Greater Eurasian Space” was expressed by V.V. Putin in 2015. At the current stage, this idea is becoming more and more relevant. The center of the multipolar world is definitely the BRICS and the RIC.
The RIC countries (Russia, India, China), given their geopolitical, logistical, geoeconomic and resource potential, play a leading role in the world economic system. An important condition for the development of the economies of this triple alliance is in-depth interaction, taking into account the achievement of their national interests.
In the changing situation of the overall world economy, new challenges, prospects and opportunities are also growing. These are the need to develop a system of guaranteed supplies of raw materials, the formation of regional Eurasian markets for the supply of labor, goods, services and capital, and the construction of new transportation corridors. The development of RIC is, first and foremost, the development of an independent market, an opportunity to develop its own internal capabilities, becoming full participants in the multipolar world order.
India is an essential partner for Russia. The structure of Russian exports to India is dominated by mineral fuels, chemicals, precious metals, food products, and metals. In turn, India exports medicinal chemicals, equipment, machinery, electronics, and agricultural products. The main Russian product to India is energy; the first two units of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant are successfully operating in the state of Tamil Nadu, and cooperation continues on the construction of all 6 planned units, with a total capacity of 6,000 MW. Discussions on project expansion and construction of additional units are ongoing.
An important driver of bilateral cooperation is industrial partnerships, which include joint projects in metallurgy, chemical industry, railway engineering, electronics and mining. Joint IT projects in the areas of telecommunications, cybersecurity, smart cities and artificial intelligence are being developed under the Make in India program. Interregional ties in Russian-Indian relations are actively developing, taking cooperation to a deeper level in the framework of mutual trade and investment.
Q4 – Relations between Russia and North Korea have strengthened significantly and become strategic. Following Putin’s visit to Pyongyang on June 18 and 19, 2024, three documents were signed: a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, an agreement between the governments of Russia and North Korea on the construction of a road bridge on the Tumangang border, and an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the fields of health, medical education and science. Economic cooperation is also an important component of the agreements made. Russia and North Korea plan to increase the volume of trade and develop free economic zones, facilitating mutual investment and scientific research. What is your opinion on the prospects for economic and business development between the two countries?
A4 – Diplomatic relations between the DPRK and the USSR were established in 1948. A new treaty of friendship, good neighborliness and cooperation was signed in 2000.
At present, cooperation between the countries is on several levels and depends on the level of domestic involvement, the depth of which will depend on a number of factors.
First, it is the search for ways of economic cooperation that do not violate sanctions, exploiting “gray areas,” avoiding direct accusations. In this direction, work is being done on intergovernmental lines.
Then, it is about the further development of transportation and communication infrastructure, which includes not only the construction of cross-border automobile communications, which you rightly mentioned-the unblocking of the “Khasan – Tumangan” project, but also the emergence of regular train service, the arrival of Russian cellular communications to North Korea and Internet connection. At the same time, the training of North Korean colleagues in hacking skills will only be in the face of a common threat.
Third, it is about the development of cooperation in the field of technology. It is not a matter of transferring Russian military technology, but of launching North Korean satellites on Russian launchers, while Russian computing power will calculate processes by which a nuclear test will be dictated only by political and not technical necessity.
The next area of cooperation is tourism, which is not subject to sanctions. In addition, the DPRK is investing in creating infrastructure that meets European standards.
Another potential area is energy supply.
Finally, a very important line of cooperation is in education, health, sports and culture. Contacts take place at the level of ministers and their deputies. Here one can even talk about saturating North Korean medical institutions with Russian equipment, opening a Russian medical center in Pyongyang with Russian staff and modern equipment designed not only for Russian visitors, but also for tourists and locals.
Following the visit of the President of Russia to the DPRK, a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement was signed in the fields of economy, international policy and security.
Q5 – President Putin often dwells on Russia’s status as a unique “civilized state,” both Asian and European. What is your opinion? Can Russia currently be considered as a European power, or an Asian power? Or how can Russia be better defined?
A5 – Relations between China and Russia are developing on a factual basis. But relations with Japan, Vietnam, other ASEAN countries, India, Iran, and South Korea are increasingly being strengthened and balanced. Instead of the expected rivalry between Beijing and Moscow, a rapprochement between China’s “New Silk Road” and ASEAN is being created. Russian policy in Asia is becoming global and strategic.
Based on geo-economic and geopolitical trends, building on the early results of the turn to the East, the idea of forming a new community – the Greater Eurasia (GE) partnership – has been expressed in Russia. This idea was officially supported by the leadership of Russia and China, and naturally opened to other countries.
Business Excellence (BE) and echo conceptual framework define the geo-economic and geopolitical future and self-identification of Russia as the rising center and north of the continent, transportation and economic links, thanks to centuries of experience in relations with the West and the East, peaceful interaction of religions and openness to Russian culture.
Today’s Russia’s self-determination, based to a greater extent on the geo-economic mechanism. The new Russian-Asian policy will be closely integrated with the second European direction and with the third – southern, and with the fourth – northern, Arctic, and American, if possible. This reflects the words of President Putin V.V. as a separate civilization, not related to either the West or the East, but which is the center and connects all 4 directions.
Tatiana Pokrovskaia – International business development professional.
Image Credit: AFP