By Anton Evstratov
The political and economic activities of Russia in Central Asia are now increasingly tied to the confrontation with the United States. That’s why Moscow is ready not only to attract China, but also to sacrifice some of its interests.
The Russian Federation has come quite close to find the most successful short- term interaction format with the Central Asian states. On the one hand,with the strengthening of the ties through international organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and, on the other, by preventing the penetration of the United States into the region.
The latter point is especially important, given the rivalries between the Russian Federation and the United States, the American sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as the permanent attempts by Washington to establish its influence in the post-Soviet space.
The policy pursued by the administration of US President Donald Trump, foresee the US withdrawal from several regions – including Central Asia, and a focus on core areas and domestic problems. In addition, the Central Asian-U.S. Forum (C5+1 – United States + 5 Central Asian states) was not in itself a sufficiently serious factor of competition with Moscow. The main reason for this is the remoteness of the United States from the region, and its peripherality in the American foreign policy.
At the same time, Russia, is feeling more the danger of the influence of China in the region, primarily on the economic plane. So, it is currently expressing much more readiness in the rapprochement with Beijing. The declaration signed at the end of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Forum in Qingdao concerned not only the internal development issues of the SCO countries, but also several global problems – sanctions pressure, trade wars and the threat of the collapse of the Iranian “nuclear deal”.
The Declaration showed the mutual understanding of the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization towards the most important key issues for Russia. No doubt, it is important for Moscow to maintain and strengthen its position in Central Asia, but in this context China’s loyalty is even more important, and for that obviously it is necessary to pay a price.
The Bishkek Declaration, signed on June 14, illustrates the further movement of the SCO countries in the area of political integration and ensuring the one-sidedness of foreign policy lines. The document concerns the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, and the resolution of the Afghan problem. At the same time, a few economic agreements were signed in Bishkek that benefit China as the leading economy of the organization.
The key issue at the SCO summits – both in Qingdao and Bishkek, is the preservation of the nuclear deal with Iran, which on the one hand is directly adjacent to the Central Asian region, and on the other is an observer country in the SCO. In addition, Iran is part of the Chinese project “One Belt – One Way”, and of the Russian North-South corridor. So, the economic and political stability in Iran is crucial for Russia and its initiatives in Central Asia and the Middle East.
For United States, which is also trying to establish its presence, will be quite difficult to contrast the increasingly strong alliance between Russia and China in the area of Central Asia. Theoretically, the European Union could become an ally of Washington. But the EU looks too weak, and the influence of Europe cannot be compared to the Chinese, Russian or American importance.
It is noteworthy that the new EU strategy towards the Central Asia, published in May, has been immediately criticized by the community experts. Compared to the first edition of 2007, the document has changed little, and pays a lot of attention to abstract points, such as the development of democracy and the improvement of human rights, without specifying any concrete economic or political aspects. It should also be noted that the EU has an Agreement on extended cooperation only with Kazakhstan.
Thus, the Russian Chinese alliance can hardly have competitors. Russia is the main supplier of armaments to the region and It has there two military bases. It has also a key influence on the social and economic situation in the states of Central Asia, expressed not only through the Russian investments and trade exchanges with the countries of Central Asia, in the frame the EAEU and in a bilateral agreements, but also by the presence in the Russian territory of millions of migrants workers born in Central Asia countries.
Only Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2018 received from the Russian Federation about $ 10 billion in cash transfers from working people in Russia. For each country, this is more than 30% of GDP. Moreover, the citizens of Central Asian countries, finding themselves in the territory of the Russian Federation, having often problems of information, Internet and contacts with their homelands, absorb, sometimes, the most radical religious or secular opposition content.
Theoretically, Moscow at any time can use this resource to undermine the social situation in any of the countries of Central Asia, simply tightening its migration policy, and sending several hundred thousand (and even millions) of foreign workers out of the country.
Having the economically powerful China, with its surplus foreign exchange reserves, as an ally and not an adversary in Central Asia, Russia further strengthens its influence, becoming the dominant actor. Beijing in this configuration for some time remained on the side-lines, providing economic cover for initiatives and plans of Moscow.
The infrastructure and communications lines, built by the PRC, are becoming an important strategic factor for the operativity of Russia in the region. However, given the growth of the Chinese economy and the economic problems in Russia, it is possible to predict the gradual ousting of the Russian Federation from Central Asia by Chinese businessmen, which are not more facing the obstacles previously set by the Russian side.
Nevertheless, Moscow, even considering the risks of existing and future ambitions of China, is guided by the principle reflected in the well-known proverb: “Keep a friend close and the enemy even closer”. Russia hopes that with the close relationship with Beijing it will be able to maintain its influence in Central Asia not only in the present time (for a successfully confrontation with the USA), but also for the future.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: President of Russia