By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC.
These days, Northeast Asia is being sucked into a dynamic whirlpool of imminent war. Any country in this area dares to be freed out of such a regional challenge against its national security and prosperity. Unfortunately, warfare syndromes to destroy regional peace are all involved in each other country.
Three major wars are breaking out that directly affect Northeast Asia, and which bring up excessive military preparation and competition. Nevertheless, they will end up with a kind of deep pain and remain as an incurable scar while damaging regional security and prosperity.
First, it’s the Russia-Ukraine War. It started as a Local War in 2014 that the Crimea Peninsula became under the rule of Russia and finally turned into All-Out War in 2022. Putin was very sure that he would conquer Ukraine as soon as possible to reinforce Russia’s national competitiveness in Eastern Europe. However, Russia has been scattered in the deepest dungeon far from his initial plan as time goes by because Ukraine has strongly resisted such reckless attacks with military support from Western countries.
Above all, the Russia-Ukraine War initiated the New Cold War between the original communist bloc and the democratic world. Many countries belonging to NATO which support Ukraine focus on rearming for their national security but ironically, excessive military competition is leading to more dangerous military provocation and struggle between countries. Europe is no longer a safe place since Russia attacked Ukraine.
As well, it propels the potential war of China toward Twain and North Korea toward South Korea.
Both countries with the same communist root keep on eyes to explore the pertinent chance by following up Russia’s invasion. China and North Korea have been very much belligerent as they take for granted that the other part of the country should be unified.
Second, it’s the China-Taiwan War. Xi Jinping is keeping up his vision to unify Twain by military attacks. If he is lucky enough to succeed in such a sweet dream, China will easily take over TSMC ranked in the major industrial part of the world and furthermore, confirm its priority in the South China Sea which has been disputed. Such fascinating issues will never get rid of Xi Jinping’s ambition to unify Twain, and the War is about to break out at any time. If it happens, the New Cold War will be deepened and the U.S. will directly jump into the war with its military allies. Despite Xi Jinping’s assertion calling it a domestic affair, its stance will no longer remain in international society. Especially, South China Sea’s economic priority is especially involved with many neighboring countries which would be willing to take part in the war for Taiwan.
The U.S. has controlled regional challenges to keep up its national power and influence in Northeast Asia. If China succeeds in unifying Twain, its power will be expanded in speed. Furthermore, China will push up its challenges toward the U.S. which is afraid of losing not only its power but also shrinking its influence as the world power in Northeast Asia. The U.S. will desperately put its national energy to defeat China’s military attacks. And China will fall into a serious dilemma of strong military confrontation with the U.S. and its allies to defend Taiwan. Unlike Putin, Xi Jinping may be swept away in a moment by losing his political leadership in the middle of war.
Third, it’s the North-South Korea War in the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong Un since North Korea developed nuclear weapons has become the biggest troublemaker against regional security not only in Northeast Asia but also in international society. He often fires missiles and pronounces that North Korea conducted successful nuclear tests with advanced techniques. If North Korea provokes war by military attack, however, it will automatically result in collapse. South Korea’s absolute military superiority based on the Kill-Chain System can defeat any kind of attack by North Korea and even smash the North Korean Government in a second war for Korean Reunification.
As a leader of the New Cold War, Putin will finally lose a lot more than just his political leadership, who pushes his country on the brink of abyss. He must remember that the Soviet Union collapsed because of the weary war with Afghanistan for ten years. Even though the Soviet Union absolutely dominated Afghanistan in military power, it failed to take over such a primitive country. At that moment of the Cold War, the U.S. supported Afghanistan with variable military weapons to keep up its power in middle Asia. The war finally gave a glorious victory to the U.S. by terminating the Cold War and the Soviet Union disappeared in a serious economic crisis. It could be repeated in the Russia-Ukraine War.
Through World War I and II, the world already experienced an unforgettable, tragic history and realized that human value and dignity should be on the top of national power or ideologies. And history teaches that peace always wins war to continue human society. Any country provoking war is eventually defeated, but on the reverse, any country defending war to keep up peace is rising as a new leader. For example, after World War I and II, the U.S. started emerging as a global power.
Therefore, if Russia, China, and North Korea stop the bold ambition toward war, their national security and prosperity will be reinforced. They should give up the national strategy to expand their sovereignty and must ponder what is best for their country. Without winning the war, they will lose a lot by exhausting national competitiveness.
The Win-Win Policy of No War-Security and Prosperity comes true when all the possibility of war becomes completely extinguished around Northeast Asia. Simultaneously, the New Cold War ends and only peace-making relationships between countries will guarantee regional security and prosperity in this area.
Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: KCNA via REUTERS ( North Korea’s new Chollima-1 rocket being launched in Cholsan County, North Korea, May 31, 2023)
Read Also
South Korean President Yoon’s Controversial Foreign Policy: an interview with Sunny Lee
|
