By Denis Korkodinov
In Saudi Arabia, it seems that a coup attempt has been made with the participation of the “princes of the blood.” Among the organizers were the younger brother of King Salman Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and his nephew Muhammad bin Nayef. They intended to raise an armed rebellion and change the order of succession, as a result of which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be removed from power.
It is worth noting that over the past 3 years this could be the second serious attempt at a palace coup in Riyadh. In December 2017, Muhammad bin Salman overthrew Muhammad bin Nayef from the post of heir to the throne. Subsequently, the son of the Saudi monarch arrested several of his relatives in the anti-corruption case. This allowed Mohammed bin Salman to almost completely suppress the opposition in the royal family and gain absolute control over the public administration system.
However, opponents of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia are currently of the opinion that he cannot rule the state. The reason for such conclusions was the recent assassination of Saudi journalist Jemal Khashoggi and the attack of the Yemenite Hussites on the Saudi Aramco oil facilities, which demonstrated the kingdom’s national security vulnerability and Crown Prince’s intolerance to criticism. In this regard, opponents of Muhammad bin Salman considered Prince Ahmed, the younger brother of the king, as the most suitable candidate for the throne.
In addition, according to sources, the Saudi forces and secret services secretly swore allegiance to Prince Ahmed and guaranteed him support in overthrowing King Salman. In addition, some international partners, among which the United States played a special role, seriously feared that a sufficiently independent Muhammad bin Salman could subsequently lead the kingdom. For this reason, they would like a more accommodating character, such as Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, to become the Saudi prince.
Among other things, as a result of the sharp drop in oil prices initiated by Riyadh, international experts continue to rely on the former main contender for the royal throne, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, who is the son of the late King Abdullah and one of the richest members of the royal family. Prince Miteb in the past led the elite National Guard, which is why he has great authority among military personnel specializing in counterterrorism operations and having access to modern weapons, including artillery, military aircraft and tanks.
Sources say that on the eve of the arrest of members of the royal family, representatives of some states, including Russia, secretly tried to establish direct contact with Prince Miteb and offered him help in the event of a palace coup. However, Prince Miteb rejected the proposal, saying that he did not want to be the object of international intrigue.
In these conditions, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is unlikely to have serious competitors, since the king fully supports his son. And through the arrest of family members, the monarch clearly stated that no one can go against the heir to the throne.
Over the past two years, after returning from exile, Prince Ahmed did not show much interest in public affairs and tried not to declare his claims to the royal throne. Nevertheless, he is still a prominent leader of the so-called “Council of Loyalty”, formed in 2017 and aimed at criticizing the Al-Saudi dynasty.
Now the international community, worried about falling oil prices, is seeking to establish contact with all members of the royal family who criticize the policies of King Salman and his son. And this can play a decisive role in enhancing the opposition activities of Prince Ahmed, relying on international support.
The attempt of a a palace coup in Saudi Arabia may have been caused, first of all, by the pressure exerted on Riyadh by national and international elites. In this regard, the position of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, both domestically and internationally, was extremely vulnerable. In addition, the speed of the reform activity of the crown prince provoked the anger of supporters of the conservative line and some Saudi religious leaders who felt threatened by their existence.
Despite obvious efforts, Muhammad bin Salman was not able to break the kingdom’s dependence on oil sources, and amid the catastrophic decline in black gold prices in the country, concern grew that the crown prince could completely ruin the state and embroil him with international partners.
A particular concern for the Muslim community of Saudi Arabia was the closure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca and the prohibition on the death of the Uranus in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. Against the background of continuing entertainment centers, the closure of sacred places for all Muslims, even because of environmental safety, was perceived by many members of the royal family and religious figures as an unforgivable insult and mockery of Muslims. This caused an increase in opposition to Muhammad bin Salman, who for many representatives of Riyadh became a very unpopular figure. For this reason, an attempted coup in Saudi Arabia was possible.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).